The Bryce Harper Compendium (2015)

[Mr Clean]

Harper jacks one.  Haters: "Well he didn't blah blah blah..."

                                        "He can't hit a good pitcher blah blah blah...."

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think there's a rift between Williams and Harper. Harper reminds me of a large,goofy puppy and being reprimanded goes along with eating the legs off the sofa.

thinking about changing the thread name to "large goofy puppy compendium."

What type of dog has a hair tuft like that?

[HalfSmokes]

thinking about changing the thread name to "large goofy puppy compendium."

What type of dog has a hair tuft like that?

Rhodesian Ridgeback?

[NJ Ave]

thinking about changing the thread name to "large goofy puppy compendium."

What type of dog has a hair tuft like that?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So he's not a large goofy puppy.  He's a llama.  Cuidado!

[houston-nat]

So he's not a large goofy puppy.  He's a llama.  Cuidado!

La llama son mas grande que las ranas!

Cuidado, llamas!

[tomterp]

I think there's room for both points of view, to be honest. I don't think he's a bust or anything, but last year weren't some national media people putting him out there as an MVP candidate?

I'm pretty sure that was before he tore his thumb up.  That's a bad injury and even after returning to the lineup the recovery is gradual. 

[tomterp]

For example, he says that (I assume based on run expectations) Bryce would only need to be able to throw a runner out at second 30% of the time in order to make this kind of thing worthwhile. I would venture to say his teammates would disagree that lollygagging to balls and allowing runners to get to second base from your own sloth 2 out of every 3 times is a worthwhile activity.

I don't care what run expectations say. You better be able to get that man out 9 of 10 times, or else don't eve bother. And even on that 10th time you're going to piss off your pitcher and the rest of your teammates.

So you would advocate inferior strategy in order to pander to those who don't get it?  I would much rather have a manager who sought to score the most runs, and prevent the most runs scored against us, than to cater to traditionalists.

[blue911]

So you would advocate inferior strategy in order to pander to those who don't get it?  I would much rather have a manager who sought to score the most runs, and prevent the most runs scored against us, than to cater to traditionalists.

You need to prove that one approach does indeed prevent more runs. The author failed to provide any data supporting his point of view. In fact the only point he made that could be supported by data analysis shows he was wrong.

[whytev]

My question to the author:

"Denard Span had a fWAR of 2.6 in the second half of 2014. Harper's was 1.4. How was Williams wrong by keeping Span in the line up?"

Harper was "right at the time." Meaning, up until then, Span was underwhelming.

However, Williams was right in hindsight. So, like, shut up, authour.

[whytev]

The author is the worst kind of stats dummy though. The guy who thinks he has a good handle on what stats mean, but has no real idea how to use them or draw true conclusions from them.

For example, he says that (I assume based on run expectations) Bryce would only need to be able to throw a runner out at second 30% of the time in order to make this kind of thing worthwhile. I would venture to say his teammates would disagree that lollygagging to balls and allowing runners to get to second base from your own sloth 2 out of every 3 times is a worthwhile activity.

I don't care what run expectations say. You better be able to get that man out 9 of 10 times, or else don't eve bother. And even on that 10th time you're going to piss off your pitcher and the rest of your teammates.

In any case, it's not worth it to annoy everyone for this small a result.

In the most advantageous situation - the difference between a runner on first with 0 outs or no men on with 1 out, if Bryce throws the runner out at second - Bryce saves the Nationals 0.6 runs in run expectancy. If the man gets to second, Bryce has just cost the Nationals 0.25 runs. Let's further say he does it enough to get someone to do it every couple series, and does it well enough to throw the guy out 50% of the time.

Congratulations Bryce! For loafing on basically every possible play, you just saved the Nationals 3.5 runs over the course of a season, or less than half a win.

For playing every ball down the line like a giant toolbox.

If he did it every time and threw enough guys out, they'd stop running.

[blue911]

According to Baseball Reference, Harper had a 3.5% kill rate last season and has a 3.7% for his career.

[whytev]

According to Baseball Reference, Harper had a 3.5% kill rate last season and has a 3.7% for his career.

Sometimes I wonder what it would have been like if he had stayed a catcher.

[tomterp]

You need to prove that one approach does indeed prevent more runs. The author failed to provide any data supporting his point of view. In fact the only point he made that could be supported by data analysis shows he was wrong.

One could quibbel over the run expectancy matrix but the general point is correct, that Williams is undervaluing outs versus the cost of having a baserunner advance.

I wouldn't expect a dissertation on baserunner vs outs in that piece, that wasn't the point of the article.

[tomterp]

According to Baseball Reference, Harper had a 3.5% kill rate last season and has a 3.7% for his career.

What the implications for that?  Runners should test his arm much more frequently?

[mitlen]

What the implications for that?  Runners should test his arm much more frequently?

What the hell you doin' in here?    Nerves?

[blue911]

What the implications for that?  Runners should test his arm much more frequently?

The implication is Harper has a success rate of less than 4% in such situations (as defined by B-R). Even if you give him a 500% boost for suckering the runner he still doesn't hit 27% (which is closer to the real break even point). To state that Williams doesn't get this is condescending as hell considering the main stat guy added to the coaching staff is the defensive coordinator. Of course you would know this if you ever went to a BP event at the bark 

[varoadking]

What the implications for that?  Runners should test his arm much more frequently?

He does seem to hold more than his share of runners with that cannon of his...

[dracnal]

A 3.5% rate suggests that he had more than 20 chances to throw out a base runner and only got one.  Since I'm pretty sure I remember him getting more than one guy who tried to stretch a double into a triple, my guess is that they're defining kill rate as 'Got an assist on a ball that ended up in his hands as something other than a put out.'

That would include people who never tried it because they knew his arm strength. I could be wrong and I could just be mind facting it. But I really question him only getting 3.5% of every single legit chance. That'd be a ton of offline throws, errors, etc.

**edit: so I looked it up. MLB avg for Left Field? 2.2% Kill rate.    MLB avg Right Field?  2.3% Kill rate.  Bryce in Right: 4.3% career.

I don't think those count as bad stats or reasons to say Bryce sucks.

[blue911]

A 3.5% rate suggests that he had more than 20 chances to throw out a base runner and only got one.  Since I'm pretty sure I remember him getting more than one guy who tried to stretch a double into a triple, my guess is that they're defining kill rate as 'Got an assist on a ball that ended up in his hands as something other than a put out.'

That would include people who never tried it because they knew his arm strength. I could be wrong and I could just be mind facting it. But I really question him only getting 3.5% of every single legit chance. That'd be a ton of offline throws, errors, etc.

85 chances
57 holds
25 advances
3 kills

So if we just use the 28 plays that most fit the scenario, he has a success rate of 10.7%.


As a right fielder his career numbers are

70 chances
36 holds
31 advances
3 kills

Or a success rates of 8.8%.


Harper had two assists at third last season

[varoadking]

Good stuff, blue...

[varoadking]

http://www.120sports.com/video/v113744472/harper-hits-first-hr-of-spring?partnerId=ed-9032497-784354083

[mitlen]

http://www.120sports.com/video/v113744472/harper-hits-first-hr-of-spring?partnerId=ed-9032497-784354083

Thanks VaRK.    I missed it yesterday.    Looks like he got 93.7% of that pitch.   

[whytev]

Don't know how to post tweets, but even his brother is making fun of him.

BryanHarper45: #WheresMyRing?? Great year capped off with a championship!! #CarolinaLeague #PNastys #PNatShuffle… https://t.co/LFdlY614QU

[Mr Clean]

Harper: We're back!  https://instagram.com/p/1CKs6HgIXA/