The $210 Million Man - Scherzer Appreciation and Doubts

[whytev]

2.87 ERA, 2.77 FIP. Dude has been god damned nails this season. Probably the best reliever.

Future closer?

[tomterp]

If the team sucks next year, then you're not getting a 'contending team every season of his contract with him performing well every year' The fact that he can't pitch everyday is why this is a horrible contract- you're dumping massive resources into a guy who plays every fifth game- that's excusable if he's at least dominant when he does pitch, but a waste if he isn't and a horrific waste if it means that you're hampered with the rest of the roster

I hear this logic time and time again, but it simply doesn't hold water.  A starting pitcher has FAR more impact on any game that he is pitching than any other player besides the OTHER starting pitcher.  One only look at their salaries to see the value they have.  If they weren't worth it teams would lowball pitchers and pay exhorbitant salaries to position players only. 

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I hear this logic time and time again, but it simply doesn't hold water.  A starting pitcher has FAR more impact on any game that he is pitching than any other player besides the OTHER starting pitcher.  One only look at their salaries to see the value they have.  If they weren't worth it teams would lowball pitchers and pay exhorbitant salaries to position players only. 

Thank you. I'm sick of hearing that canard.

[HalfSmokes]

One only look at their salaries to see the value they have. 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/


first pitcher comes in at number 8, then scherzer at 10 (20% of the top 10)- seems like the market values position players far more than pitchers

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

A lot more on an annual basis though (from the same source)

Average annual value
The highest-paid players in baseball history, by average annual value:
1. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23)
2. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)
3. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)
4. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
5. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
… Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)
7. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
8. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
9. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
… Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)
… Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)
13. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)
14. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)
15. Mike Trout, $24,083,333 (2015-20)
16. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)
. . . Albert Pujols, $24,000,000 (2012-21)
. . . Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)
. . . Robinson Cano, $24,000,000 (2014-23)
20. Prince Fielder, $23,777,778 (2012-20)
21. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
. . . Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Don't let facts get in the way of people's desire to be contrarian numbnuts.

[HalfSmokes]

Because total value doesn't exist?

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
8. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
9. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
10. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

But feel free to keep being an jerk

[Elvir Ovcina]

Because total value doesn't exist?

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
8. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
9. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
10. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

But feel free to keep being an jerk

Because teams realize that pitchers have a much higher chance of becoming millstones if you give them very long contracts, so they pay them huge AAVs over shorter terms so as not to end up with a Sabathia or Zito contract.  Both sets of numbers - overall and annual - are parts of the same big picture.

[HalfSmokes]

And scherzer has a long term deal

[Elvir Ovcina]

And scherzer has a long term deal

Talk to Rizzo about that.  So does Kershaw. Kershaw would have been a free agent at the end of 2014, when he was 26 and coming off 3 Cy Youngs in 4 years, including 2 consecutive ERAs of under 2. Imagine what he could have gotten if he'd been willing to take a 3 year deal.  35 million per year? 40?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Because total value doesn't exist?

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
8. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
9. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
10. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

But feel free to keep being an jerk

What does long-term value have to do with how pitchers are valued within the context of a single season?  You retreaded the feeble argument that in a given season, a position player is 5x more valuable than a pitcher.

[whytev]

Because total value doesn't exist?

1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
8. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
9. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
10. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

But feel free to keep being an jerk

Average annual value is more relevant. Everyone knows position players last longer.

[tomterp]

Because total value doesn't exist?

Of COURSE total value is going to skew towards position players, they are much lower risk of injury than pitchers.  That fact alone dictates shorter / lower TCV.  It's salary per year that is relevant - how much are teams paying for pitchers versus position players?

To follow your argument to the extreme, do you think a starting pitcher is worth 1/5 of a position player?  Or even less, say 7 innings of 1/5?   

[zimm_da_kid]

Talk to Rizzo about that.  So does Kershaw. Kershaw would have been a free agent at the end of 2014, when he was 26 and coming off 3 Cy Youngs in 4 years, including 2 consecutive ERAs of under 2. Imagine what he could have gotten if he'd been willing to take a 3 year deal.  35 million per year? 40?

i'd give Kershaw $55 mil a year on a 3 yr deal.

[BeltwayBaseball]

Max Scherzer is an absolute beast. This is an instant classic.

[Mathguy]

No.  Whatever statistic describing position players as more value than pitchers is not measuring value.  Let's start with percent of each action a player is involved.  Pitchers are involved in every play while position players are not.

Of COURSE total value is going to skew towards position players, they are much lower risk of injury than pitchers.  That fact alone dictates shorter / lower TCV.  It's salary per year that is relevant - how much are teams paying for pitchers versus position players?

To follow your argument to the extreme, do you think a starting pitcher is worth 1/5 of a position player?  Or even less, say 7 innings of 1/5?   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No.  Whatever statistic describing position players as more value than pitchers is not measuring value.  Let's start with percent of each action a player is involved.  Pitchers are involved in every play while position players are not.

One model is that runs scored and runs allowed have equal value, so half the value of a win is spread among the offense and half the defense.  Of the defensive value, on average there are 7 outs due almost exclusively to the pitcher (Ks, but framing has something to do with it) and 20 due to defense.  Pure defensive independent pitching theory says pitchers have no control over the out / safe outcome of a ball in play. Pure DIPs is wrong in that pitchers have some influence over batted ball outcomes, but it is not so far off that it is more than fine tuning.  So, while it is true that every play starts with the pitcher throwing the ball, that really  has next to nothing to do with value.  Positional players pick up most of that 50% of the value assigned to offense, and a decent amount of the defensive value of outs that aren't Ks. 

[Slateman]

Remember guys, Tanner Roark is just as good.

[tomterp]

No.  Whatever statistic describing position players as more value than pitchers is not measuring value.  Let's start with percent of each action a player is involved.  Pitchers are involved in every play while position players are not.

 

I don't think you were reading the comments that preceded my point.  And, the statistic to which I refer is "Total contract value", expressed in $.

[varoadking]

 

[sizzlin]

Money well spent.

[rileyn]

Ray Knight said Max pitched a great game, but the bottom line is he gave up 4 runs in 6.2 innings and blew another lead.  We didn't give $210 million for effort.  We need better results.

[united]

Ray Knight said Max pitched a great game, but the bottom line is he gave up 4 runs in 6.2 innings and blew another lead.  We didn't give $210 million for effort.  We need better results.

This is why it really makes no sense to give these types of contracts out. Scherzer is a stud. He was unreal the first half of the year. He has had serious problems giving up the long ball in the second half. His numbers are still extremely good. The problem is that the expectations of the team and that contract are almost impossible to live up to. It's a lose/lose situation for everyone involved.

[aussienatsfan]

i don't like Max, I want too but I just don't

[HalfSmokes]

i don't like Max, I want too but I just don't

That's the problem with buying another team's star- they have to be great to just get what you expect, anything short of that and they're a disappointment