Poll

Which Max year was better, 2016 or 2017? (reply 865 has some comparitive stats)

2016 - better record, more innings, more Ks
0 (0%)
2017 - better ERA, WHIP, FIP; personal best ERA relative to league; fewer HRs per fly, per IP
10 (100%)

Total Members Voted: 10

Author Topic: The $210 Million Man - Scherzer Appreciation and Doubts  (Read 53419 times)

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Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9233
He's literally an anti-Ace right now. What's his ERA post all star break like 5?

Offline Natsinpwc

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He's literally an anti-Ace right now. What's his ERA post all star break like 5?
He's turned into Fister. Or Detwiler.

Offline BeltwayBaseball

  • Posts: 926
  • I want to get off Ted & Mark's Wild Ride
Really disappointing and frustrating. Haven't read today's article yet, but are we definitely all saying that this is from overuse? Like is that the definitive blame right now?

They say the first thing to go with fatigue is command, and he was missing corners and instead they were becoming fat pitches, and at other times he was missing badly, Ramos was crossing his body with the glove all day trying to catch errant pitches.

That stretch of games prior to the All-Star Break was insane, it's one thing to ride the hot hand (even in June and July) and another to send a guy out for extra innings, extra pitches when there is no need for him to go out there. It was entertaining from Milwaukee to Philly, you can't pull him out when he's bidding for perfection three times in a row, but after that, why did he have to go 8.1 in Baltimore? 8.2 in Atlanta? The guy had ONE career complete game going into this year, he's the kind of guy that spreads out 6-8 innings a game across an entire year. Don't give me that "I don't pay a guy $210m not to go 9 innings" stuff - you pay him that much money to go 6-8 with never more than 2 ER given up, if you don't have a bullpen and a lineup that can take care of the rest then you don't sign a front-line starter.

I don't know that I would have handled things differently, there was a time when I thought the guy was just a late bloomer and must be the second coming of Walter Johnson - I mean he was unbeatable for three months. But I did always wince a little when I saw him thrown out there for that extra inning. I mean a tie game in the bottom of the 9th in Atlanta, really?

I remember him complaining about letting his arm lower too much - sounds like classic fatigue to me, he can't get his arm up enough because his freaking arm is tired. Even with all of these botched 4-5 inning starts he's got 190IP on the year with like four or five starts left to go, he should easily eclipse his single-season record.

I think Matt had a little too much fun with his shiny new toy. And I still think the whole game goes different if you get a pinch hitter in there in the 5th and the Nats go up 7-4. Not a guarantee, but pitchers pitch differently depending on the lead size and whether or not they come in with runners on.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20429
He's pitched 190 innings so far and probably has 5 starts left, six innings a start puts him right at 220- last year year he went 220 plus 7 post season, 2013 214 plus 22 post season, 2012, 187 plus 15 post season. If it's fatigue, I'd say it has more to do Rizzo buying a used up pitcher than it does with his usage this year

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
If it's fatigue, I'd say it has more to do Rizzo buying a used up pitcher than it does with his usage this year

And shame on Rizzo for not understanding what he was doing, and for this obscene contract that will handicap us for years.

Offline BeltwayBaseball

  • Posts: 926
  • I want to get off Ted & Mark's Wild Ride
He's pitched 190 innings so far and probably has 5 starts left, six innings a start puts him right at 220- last year year he went 220 plus 7 post season, 2013 214 plus 22 post season, 2012, 187 plus 15 post season. If it's fatigue, I'd say it has more to do Rizzo buying a used up pitcher than it does with his usage this year

If he had pitched six or seven a start during this skid and then pitched the many innings he was supposed to pitch in the playoffs he could have blown well past 270. They set him up to have way too many innings by year's end. And it's not just about how many you throw over the course of a year - it's how you go about them. Marathon runners flame out hard if they overwork one small stretch and they don't get the same result had they gone the same pace the whole time. If Max kept up a normal (by today's and his standard) workload perhaps he wouldn't have fatigue at this time. The body has a max workload it can take over a short term and a long term, and over the short term of one month, 6 starts, he pitched 47.2 innings and hasn't been the same since. He had never pitched that many innings in a 6-game stretch in his career, not even close (except for, funny enough, May of this season when he pitched 43), and let's not forget three of those games in a row were perfect games he was chasing, so those are some serious stress innings.

Think of doing bicep curls. If you do 10 reps twice a day, across many weeks, you can probably keep that up forever and eventually increase your workload. But if you do, say, 15 twice a day a day when your body isn't prepared for that, over the course of just a few days your arm may tire out and cramp, and either lift poorly or get injured. Or if you tried 50 reps in a single session, your arm would be exhausted and you'd have to shut down for like a week. So if you think numerically, over a week, you could have done 140 reps (10/2/day) 105-120 (15/2/day having to rest some days, and with poorer form/results from fatigue) or as little as 50 (all in one day to the point you injured yourself and had to shut down). Once you get too tired, the only way to get back to normal is to shut down, reduce your workload, and get back to form over time. The same probably applies to a marathon baseball season and innings pitched. It's not exact, but I think you get the point. If after the ASB Scherzer had gone 5 innings, 5 innings, 6 innings, 6 innings, then got back to normal, maybe he'd be better, but you don't get to do that in the middle of a baseball season.

Ironically, in that 6-game stretch, because he was so dominating he actually threw far fewer pitches than he has over other 6-game stretches in his career. So who the hell knows. I think he would be better off one way or another had his workload been monitored better following that crazy three-perfecto streak he had. And hell, they could have pushed him back another day after the ASB, one more day's rest - and he would have started the first game against the Mets and been in line for another in the series the Nats got swept. :evil:

Online rileyn

  • Posts: 3703
And shame on Rizzo for not understanding what he was doing, and for this obscene contract that will handicap us for years.
As bad as the contract appears, if Scherzer was nails THIS year and we won a WS (dude where's my ring), I would have considered it well worth it. Anything less that a WS makes this contract insane.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 31446
  • Redemption
As bad as the contract appears, if Scherzer was nails THIS year and we won a WS (dude where's my ring), I would have considered it well worth it. Anything less that a WS makes this contract insane.

we still don't know if Rizzo wanted to sign Scherzer, or if this was a Lerner deal, i remember a lot of discussion that the Lerners pretty much forced Scherzer on Rizzo.

Offline BeltwayBaseball

  • Posts: 926
  • I want to get off Ted & Mark's Wild Ride
As bad as the contract appears, if Scherzer was nails THIS year and we won a WS (dude where's my ring), I would have considered it well worth it. Anything less that a WS makes this contract insane.

WS are not guarantees. A contending team every season of his contract with him performing well every year is all you can hope for. You get to the playoffs and roll the dice, they're a crapshoot. If they don't get to the playoffs, well, he can't pitch every day. While he was lighting it up in the first half, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg were either freaking up or being injured. Let's not nag about this contract if next year Gio, Giolito and Roark are getting lit up three out of five days a week or Stras is on the DL again, or the lineup is choking again, rather we'll nag about the crappy ass team as a whole.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20429
I'd be shocked if he even approaches the 236 he pitched in 2013 (I doubt he gets to the 227 he pitched in 2014). If he can't go deep into games when the team needs him (47 innings over 6 starts is less than 8 innings a start- that's not unreasonable to ask) then he's a spectacular waste of money

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20429
WS are not guarantees. A contending team every season of his contract with him performing well every year is all you can hope for. You get to the playoffs and roll the dice, they're a crapshoot. If they don't get to the playoffs, well, he can't pitch every day. While he was lighting it up in the first half, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg were either freaking up or being injured. Let's not nag about this contract if next year Gio, Giolito and Roark are getting lit up three out of five days a week or Stras is on the DL again, or the lineup is choking again, rather we'll nag about the crappy ass team as a whole.

If the team sucks next year, then you're not getting a 'contending team every season of his contract with him performing well every year' The fact that he can't pitch everyday is why this is a horrible contract- you're dumping massive resources into a guy who plays every fifth game- that's excusable if he's at least dominant when he does pitch, but a waste if he isn't and a horrific waste if it means that you're hampered with the rest of the roster

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
we still don't know if Rizzo wanted to sign Scherzer, or if this was a Lerner deal, i remember a lot of discussion that the Lerners pretty much forced Scherzer on Rizzo.

If it really was forced on Rizzo by the Lerners, then the $210M better be off-budget.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20429
If it really was forced on Rizzo by the Lerners, then the $210M better be off-budget.

 :funny: I'm betting he figures into the budget right through 2028

Offline BeltwayBaseball

  • Posts: 926
  • I want to get off Ted & Mark's Wild Ride
If the team sucks next year, then you're not getting a 'contending team every season of his contract with him performing well every year' The fact that he can't pitch everyday is why this is a horrible contract- you're dumping massive resources into a guy who plays every fifth game- that's excusable if he's at least dominant when he does pitch, but a waste if he isn't and a horrific waste if it means that you're hampered with the rest of the roster

He was dominant every time when he pitched, then he got overworked. 8IP a start is unrealistic, that's 280 a season before the playoffs even start. Madison Bumgarner last year went 6/start which put him up to 217 on the year, leaving plenty of gas in the tank so he could pitch another 40 in the playoffs and dominate. You want to have something left over so you can let it all hang out in October. 6.1 or 6.2 bumps you up to about 230 or 240 respectively. Again, if you don't have a bullpen that can handle the rest, you don't sign a pitcher like this, and you were never a World Series contender anyway.

I don't know what possessed Walter Johnson to pitch 370 innings in 1907, height of the Dead-Ball Era (while posting a 1.36 ERA), but I can tell you it had a lot to do with the fact that hitters sucked, the balls were soft, used one for the whole game and contained no cork, the players were mostly malnourished, there was only one series in the postseason instead of three, hitting for power wasn't vogue (and thus nobody was feared, so nobody walked), and Walter Johnson was an absolute freak of nature. 6'1" on a Kansas farmboy's diet of potatoes and gravy? If he lived today he'd have been as tall as Randy Johnson. And imagine if he learned how to throw a slider. :shock:

And I don't think this contract is going to hamper the roster in any way. The Lerners, while complaining about the payroll being topped out, have raised prices and seem to be happy to pay big money to show they can compete with LA and NY. Gotta love a DC native with a chip on his shoulder I guess. :shrug:

Online HalfSmokes

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He's not over worked- he's not even going to touch his 2013 innings total, if you want to complain about a stretch when he averaged less than 8 innings a game, what do you think is reasonable- a quick hook after 7? 

Offline BeltwayBaseball

  • Posts: 926
  • I want to get off Ted & Mark's Wild Ride
He's not over worked- he's not even going to touch his 2013 innings total, if you want to complain about a stretch when he averaged less than 8 innings a game, what do you think is reasonable- a quick hook after 7?

He had 47.2 - that's literally 1 out away from being 8 per over 6 starts. And that's only because he got knocked out quick after only 4.2 against Cincinnati from being exhausted, take way that start and there's no game he didn't pitch 8 or pitch into the 9th. I don't know that any pitcher can do that without having to reduce their workload thereafter and work their way back up, especially a guy who never did it in his career and has never been a guy to complete games. Max is no freak of nature like Walter Johnson, nobody is. Randy Johnson and Bryce Harper are really rare players, let's just be grateful we have one of 'em.

Again, totals aside, it's a marathon and he used up too much energy in one burst I think, and now he's going into the last lap flat. I mean he's not injured and most days he has a feel for his pitches but just can't finish them off or execute, it has to be workload right? I say if you're a World Series contender, you walk a fine line between keeping your starter and your bullpen both fresh - wear out the kids who aren't going to be on the postseason roster if you have to. We weren't supposed to be the team that needs to ride the hot hand too hard like the Rockies in '07, the Royals last year and even the Yankees this year. We were supposed to be absolutely loaded, but we all know how that went, so it's sort of a moot point.

Offline whytev

  • Posts: 8768
He's not over worked- he's not even going to touch his 2013 innings total, if you want to complain about a stretch when he averaged less than 8 innings a game, what do you think is reasonable- a quick hook after 7?

It might be reasonable to ask what the Tigers know and we don't. They let him have one career complete game going into this year. Just one!

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 4633
He was dominant every time when he pitched, then he got overworked. 8IP a start is unrealistic, that's 280 a season before the playoffs even start. Madison Bumgarner last year went 6/start which put him up to 217 on the year, leaving plenty of gas in the tank so he could pitch another 40 in the playoffs and dominate. You want to have something left over so you can let it all hang out in October. 6.1 or 6.2 bumps you up to about 230 or 240 respectively. Again, if you don't have a bullpen that can handle the rest, you don't sign a pitcher like this, and you were never a World Series contender anyway.

I don't know what possessed Walter Johnson to pitch 370 innings in 1907, height of the Dead-Ball Era (while posting a 1.36 ERA), but I can tell you it had a lot to do with the fact that hitters sucked, the balls were soft, used one for the whole game and contained no cork, the players were mostly malnourished, there was only one series in the postseason instead of three, hitting for power wasn't vogue (and thus nobody was feared, so nobody walked), and Walter Johnson was an absolute freak of nature. 6'1" on a Kansas farmboy's diet of potatoes and gravy? If he lived today he'd have been as tall as Randy Johnson. And imagine if he learned how to throw a slider. :shock:

And I don't think this contract is going to hamper the roster in any way. The Lerners, while complaining about the payroll being topped out, have raised prices and seem to be happy to pay big money to show they can compete with LA and NY. Gotta love a DC native with a chip on his shoulder I guess. :shrug:

great post

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20429
It might be reasonable to ask what the Tigers know and we don't. They let him have one career complete game going into this year. Just one!

tigers are stupid because we got fister from them - that's the story isn't it? Of course they bailed a year early on fister

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
You really can't compare Fister and Scherzer.

 I still think the Tigers were stupid in the Fister deal because ultimately they got absolutely nothing, and we got one year of a first class starter and there was no reason for them to think he wouldn't be good for another year.   

Scherzer wasn't a trade, it was the case of a free agent that they declined to sign.  It isn't that they knew something. It's that they were not willing to pay on the order of $210M. Which was smart. They got a first round pick, and we lost one.  They got the better deal.

Offline Matugi

  • Posts: 3494
47 innings over 6 starts is less than 8 innings a start- that's not unreasonable to ask

Yes it is.  That's exactly what got us into trouble in the first place.  Your "less than 8 innings per start" is such a convenient and deceptive phrase when one more inning in any start makes for 8 innings per start, which is ridiculous.  Scherzer averaged around 6.7 innings per start in his Cy Young season.  Asking him to pitch an extra 32 innings over the course of a year is insane for a pitcher that's never been worked that much.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 31446
  • Redemption
Yes it is.  That's exactly what got us into trouble in the first place.  Your "less than 8 innings per start" is such a convenient and deceptive phrase when one more inning in any start makes for 8 innings per start, which is ridiculous.  Scherzer averaged around 6.7 innings per start in his Cy Young season.  Asking him to pitch an extra 32 innings over the course of a year is insane for a pitcher that's never been worked that much.

i might be mindfacting but I recall him going much deeper into starts in the first half, so it may smooth out, but it could be because he was so overworked in the first half that he's falling apart in the second.

Offline whytev

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tigers are stupid because we got fister from them - that's the story isn't it? Of course they bailed a year early on fister

I'm talking about player management, not roster building.

Online Slateman

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  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Rivero isn't better, he's just the best bad option, but even if you think he gets you an inning, you still have another two before you get to Paplebon- are you putting in Jansen, Fister, Treinen? Maybe let Storen blow it in the 8th?

2.87 ERA, 2.77 FIP. Dude has been god damned nails this season. Probably the best reliever.

Online rileyn

  • Posts: 3703
The fact that Scherzer pitched like he did today is another kick to the nads.  Where was this when the pressure was on and we needed a stopper performance?  It is meaningless to pitch well in an empty stadium as we play out the string.