The $210 Million Man - Scherzer Appreciation and Doubts

[DPMOmaha]

I think either C & D or Bob and FP were wondering if it was that stretch of all those complete game/8 inning games that has worn him down.  Would extra rest this month help do you think?

I'd like to see them insert Stras vs. Colorado after Ross, probably, and bump everyone back a day.

[varoadking]

I'd like to see them insert Stras vs. Colorado after Ross, probably, and bump everyone back a day.

That's a good idea so you know Matt will not think of it...

[Matugi]

That's a good idea so you know Matt will not think of it...

He'll pitch Scherzer a day early instead

[Optics]

Everyone is gonna blame Storen yesterday, and he deserves some of it, but lets point some blame at Scherzer.

He was given a 3-1 lead, and blew it, giving up multiple homers. You can't give up 4 runs to a last place team at home in a rubber match in a series you absolutely need.

He had a 3-0 lead against Arizona last week and blew it(we still won the game).

He's also given up 5 runs twice fairly recently(Pitt and Cincy games). Pitt game especially hurt because that was a game where the offense produced.

When you're Max Scherzer, a $200 Million Ace, and you get 3 runs, or any sort of multiple run lead, you have to lock it down and win it. We're at the point now where every Scherzer start is basically a must win because we'll be lucky to go .500 in the other four starts.

I know he's due for some regression after that dominant first half, but post ASB he's basically been a league average pitcher.

[UMDNats]

Not an ace. No one is an ace. Get to work, Rizzo.

[OldChelsea]

'Topic: Max Scherzer has not been good recently'

---
The Nationals have not been good recently.

More to it than just one player.

[varoadking]

Everyone is gonna blame Storen yesterday, and he deserves some of it, but lets point some blame at Scherzer.

He was given a 3-1 lead, and blew it, giving up multiple homers. You can't give up 4 runs to a last place team at home in a rubber match in a series you absolutely need.

He had a 3-0 lead against Arizona last week and blew it(we still won the game).

He's also given up 5 runs twice fairly recently(Pitt and Cincy games). Pitt game especially hurt because that was a game where the offense produced.

When you're Max Scherzer, a $200 Million Ace, and you get 3 runs, or any sort of multiple run lead, you have to lock it down and win it. We're at the point now where every Scherzer start is basically a must win because we'll be lucky to go .500 in the other four starts.

I know he's due for some regression after that dominant first half, but post ASB he's basically been a league average pitcher.

I was against signing any pitcher for that kind of money and still am.

His upside wasn't ever going to be appreciably accretive to our 2014 staff numbers, nor will it ever, and it set a bad precedent and potentially hampers future signings.

He's had a couple of good games.  So has Ian Desmond.

[Natsinpwc]

I was against signing any pitcher for that kind of money and still am.

His upside wasn't ever going to be appreciably accretive to our 2014 staff numbers, nor will it ever, and it set a bad precedent and potentially hampers future signings.

He's had a couple of good games.  So has Ian Desmond.

I was against signing him also but without Max the team would be 5-6 games back of the Mets.  Strasburg has been bad and ir injured all year. JZ has been off. Same for Gio lost if the year. And Fister has slipped badly.

[Matugi]

He's had a couple of good games.  So has Ian Desmond.

This is such a stupid argument.  The sample size is so, so, vastly different that it's apples and oranges.  It'd be more apt to say "Desmond has had some good two week spurts" but to compare game to game is ridiculous.

That being said, Williams Johann Santana'd Scherzer.

[Optics]

'Topic: Max Scherzer has not been good recently'

---
The Nationals have not been good recently.

More to it than just one player.

Of course, but when you get paid $200 Million, more of the weight falls on your shoulders.

Sometimes over the course of a season you need that one guy to carry you. He did it in the first half but has unable to do so in the second half.

[varoadking]

This is such a stupid argument.  The sample size is so, so, vastly different that it's apples and oranges.  It'd be more apt to say "Desmond has had some good two week spurts" but to compare game to game is ridiculous.

But Desmond hasn't had any good two week spurts this season, so...

[Minty Fresh]

But Desmond hasn't had any good two week spurts this season, so...

[NatsGirl]

When Scherzer is off, he gives up homeruns.  They're usually solo shots because he rarely walks anyone and doesn't give up too many hits.  While it's frustrating to see him off his game, I vastly prefer this to what happens when the other pitchers on this team are off their game.  Specifically what happens when Gio, Storen, and Blaron Treinett (credit to Elvir Ovcina) are off their game. 

[MorseTheHorse]

'Topic: Max Scherzer has not been good recently'

---
The Nationals have not been good recently.

More to it than just one player.

There are a dozen other threads on the dozen other Nats who also have not been very good recently.  Should none of them exist?

[Slateman]

Hate to say it but I told y'all so. Max has always been inconsistent.

[Natsinpwc]

Hate to say it but I told y'all so. Max has always been inconsistent.

here are his WHIP and ERA since he was in Detroit.  Seems fairly consistent and the lower numbers this year so far seem predictable based on being in the NL. 

2010: 1.25 and 3.50
2011: 1.35 and 4.43
2012: 1.27 and 3.74
2013: 0.97 and 2.94
2014: 1.18 and 3.15
2015: 0.87 and 2.14

[BeltwayBaseball]

At least with Scherzer when he's off, there's something simple you can isolate, and from what I've seen, it was a sort of "dumb luck" thing. In one start, I want to say in Pittsburgh, he didn't have his slider. It happens, you can't feel a pitch and you struggle. Against Arizona, he was merely "human" and ran into what is one of the better offenses in the game, still only gave up 3 runs in 6 innings. Vs Cincinnati in DC, he was exhausted because he had pitched 34.1 innings in four games. Against Toronto, he gave up two homers to a light-hitting defensive outfielder, I call it a fluke. And yesterday, he gave up a homer to another flukey player, an infielder with four homers all year, and then gave up two homers to CarGo, who has single-handedly destroyed most of the National League since the break, including us. Outside of that, he gave up one run. He's a flyball pitcher and so homers will happen with him, but homers will happen with anybody facing CarGo.

Sandwiched within his "regression" in the second half is a 6IP/1ER start in DC vs LA, 7IP shutout in Miami and 8.2IP vs Baltimore with 2 solo HR from Adam Jones. The guys been an absolute ace, and when he hasn't been he's been quality, none of those games except for Cincinnati were out of reach.

The title of this thread should be "Max Scherzer has not been superhuman recently." I don't expect this level of performance from Scherzer going forward I don't expect some massive regression to Dbacks-era Scherzer. In most years he would be leading Cy Young voting, unfortunately for him he plays in the same generation as Clayton Kershaw who might be about tied with him after a poor start and Scherzer's regression, and Zack Greinke is somehow putting up Bob Gibson numbers in a very magical season.

[Matugi]

Well put.  I think the solo homers is key -- he's so good at limiting baserunners that he never puts himself into risky jams.  He's like the reverse Gio.  Gio is perhaps the best in all of baseball in limiting home runs (and has been throughout his career) but his walk issues are well noted and he's hurt by allowing consecutive baserunners.  Scherzer, on the other hand, is almost exclusively hurt by the long ball, which will happen when you throw mid-upper 90s

[Kevrock]

Fire Max Scherzer! This site is something else.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

merged. 

[mitlen]

Fire Max Scherzer! This site is something else.

Then don't read it.     

[Ray D]

We're stuck with this albatross for 7 years.  At $30M/yr?  Holy crap! 

[HattoriHanzo]

I think he needs to skip a start or get pushed back a few days.  His arm is probably tired.

[BeltwayBaseball]

I won't be ready to give up on him unless this inconsistency continues unfettered into next trade deadline. Until then, he's our ace and hope for the best from him every 5th day.

[mimontero88]

I won't be ready to give up on him unless this inconsistency continues unfettered into next trade deadline. Until then, he's our ace and hope for the best from him every 5th day.

I think the toxicity in the clubhouse is starting to get to him.