Extend Rendon

[nfotiu]

He's probably ready to start his decline at the beginning of the contract, so 90% is what you can expect for the first 2 years.   By year 3, he'll likely be a below average 1st baseman you are paying 30 million/year to.  I'm sure the Arenado contract has Boras expecting at least a 7 year contract for Rendon.   A 4-5 year contract you are likely eating the last couple years seems reasonable.   A 6-7 year deal where you can only realistically expect to get your money's worth for the first couple years makes no sense. 

At this point in the contract, the Nats have no leverage, and Boras has no reason to take anything less than Arenado's contract maybe adjusted a bit for age.   It seems that there is almost no chance of a deal before he hits free agency.   The only slight chance of Rendon returning is if the free agency market is soft and he works out something with the Nats after becoming a free agent.

[Slateman]

Why does everyone think he's going to decline because he turned 30? Turner has been extremely productive after turning 30. Adrian Beltre had his most productive years after 30.

Its 2019 and we have modern nutrition and workouts.

[Natsinpwc]

He's probably ready to start his decline at the beginning of the contract, so 90% is what you can expect for the first 2 years.   By year 3, he'll likely be a below average 1st baseman you are paying 30 million/year to.  I'm sure the Arenado contract has Boras expecting at least a 7 year contract for Rendon.   A 4-5 year contract you are likely eating the last couple years seems reasonable.   A 6-7 year deal where you can only realistically expect to get your money's worth for the first couple years makes no sense. 

At this point in the contract, the Nats have no leverage, and Boras has no reason to take anything less than Arenado's contract maybe adjusted a bit for age.   It seems that there is almost no chance of a deal before he hits free agency.   The only slight chance of Rendon returning is if the free agency market is soft and he works out something with the Nats after becoming a free agent.

The problem with never paying that way is you can’t build a good lineup. Sometimes you have to overpay. When other free agents see Harper and now Rendon leave they become less interested in the Nats.

[nfotiu]

Every article on the subject show hitters start to decline at 30, and usually peak a few years younger than that.   If you are an owner, you need to play the odds.   Turner and Beltre are obvious exceptions, but do you want to bet that much money that Rendon will be an exception too.  Turner wasn't even a good major leaguer until 29, and Beltre was freakish in his consistency throughout his long career.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

He's probably ready to start his decline at the beginning of the contract, so 90% is what you can expect for the first 2 years.   By year 3, he'll likely be a below average 1st baseman you are paying 30 million/year to.

Why does everyone think he's going to decline because he turned 30? Turner has been extremely productive after turning 30. Adrian Beltre had his most productive years after 30.

Its 2019 and we have modern nutrition and workouts.

I mean, I sort of get it because a lot of infielders do decline around that time, but it's far from automatic.  For every Bill Mueller or Ryan Zimmerman, there's an Edwin Encarnacion, Aramis Ramirez, or John Olerud.

And it's not like the Nats have a wealth of corner infielders in the pipeline waiting to tear up the majors, so the alternative would be to find a replacement in free agency.  Players as good as Rendon don't exactly grow on trees, and when you can find them, it's rare that they're under 29, so the potential for a decline around age 30 would still exist.

[Natsinpwc]

Every article on the subject show hitters start to decline at 30, and usually peak a few years younger than that.   If you are an owner, you need to play the odds.   Turner and Beltre are obvious exceptions, but do you want to bet that much money that Rendon will be an exception too.  Turner wasn't even a good major leaguer until 29, and Beltre was freakish in his consistency throughout his long career.

So who’s going to replace him? They already lost lots of production in RF from Harper even considering Harper is having a bad year.

[nfotiu]

The problem with never paying that way is you can’t build a good lineup. Sometimes you have to overpay. When other free agents see Harper and now Rendon leave they become less interested in the Nats.

Signing guys to bad contracts does not help your team bring in more free agents.  It would do the opposite.  No one is crossing the Nats off their list because Boras likes to bring his clients to free agency.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Every article on the subject show hitters start to decline at 30, and usually peak a few years younger than that.   If you are an owner, you need to play the odds.   Turner and Beltre are obvious exceptions, but do you want to bet that much money that Rendon will be an exception too.  Turner wasn't even a good major leaguer until 29, and Beltre was freakish in his consistency throughout his long career.

Yeah, no.  There's a mountain of examples of corner infielders that flies in the face of what you're saying (near-certain decline at 31/32).  If anything, a drop-off at age 34 seems fairly common, but that would mean Rendon would give us roughly 4 more very productive seasons, and I'd take that out of a 6-year contract.

[imref]

Yeah, no.  There's a mountain of examples of corner infielders that flies in the face of what you're saying (near-certain decline at 31/32).  If anything, a drop-off at age 34 seems fairly common, but that would mean Rendon would give us roughly 4 more very productive seasons, and I'd take that out of a 6-year contract.

Scott Rolen ages 32-37: .272 / .340 / .436

I'd be happy if Rendon gave us that.

[bluestreak]

For a "fan forum" we sure do really hate the players....

[nfotiu]

For a "fan forum" we sure do really hate the players....

I like Rendon.  I just think that having Boras as an agent means his value as an asset expires when the team control ends.  I also don't think that signing 30 year old position players to long, expensive deals is the smartest move.   If Rizzo wants to sign him, great, it is not my money, but I think he's perfectly justified in not giving into the agent who will go after every last cent that is out there.

[Terps and Nats]

He's probably ready to start his decline at the beginning of the contract, so 90% is what you can expect for the first 2 years.   By year 3, he'll likely be a below average 1st baseman you are paying 30 million/year to.  I'm sure the Arenado contract has Boras expecting at least a 7 year contract for Rendon.   A 4-5 year contract you are likely eating the last couple years seems reasonable.   A 6-7 year deal where you can only realistically expect to get your money's worth for the first couple years makes no sense. 

At this point in the contract, the Nats have no leverage, and Boras has no reason to take anything less than Arenado's contract maybe adjusted a bit for age.   It seems that there is almost no chance of a deal before he hits free agency.   The only slight chance of Rendon returning is if the free agency market is soft and he works out something with the Nats after becoming a free agent.

So this is just Nats fans justifying we are ok with letting Rendon walk.  And he will. 

[Baseball is Life]

For a "fan forum" we sure do really hate the players....

Did you seem him smile when he got picked off first last week? Kidding, kidding.

[spidernat]

For a "fan forum" we sure do really hate the players....

[Baseball is Life]

I'm really not into speculating re contracts but I always said I want him back at the right price. I said the same thing about Harper.

What is the right price? Whatever the market will bear. He will take the highest bid in FA and ask the Nats to match it. It's not complicated.

[bluestreak]

I put it in this thread, but it could easily go in the Zimmerman thread, the Harper thread when he was here, the Strasburg thread, etc, etc.

I imagine it will happen to Turner as we become more familiar with him.

The only person immune is Max....

[Slateman]

So this is just Nats fans justifying we are ok with letting Rendon walk.  And he will. 

Which is what we alldid with Bryce

[Baseball is Life]

I put it in this thread, but it could easily go in the Zimmerman thread, the Harper thread when he was here, the Strasburg thread, etc, etc.

I imagine it will happen to Turner as we become more familiar with him.

The only person immune is Max....

He is immune now but it comes and goes. The haters were out early this year (hell, until about a month ago!) And there is a certain poster on here who has a pathological hate for Scherzer that's just weird. I won't name him but I bet a lot of people can guess.

[Baseball is Life]

The only player I ever really hated on the Nats was Adam Kennedy because he was a total dick to a bunch of kids at Nats event years ago. Just saying really inappropriate things like he was hungover or something. One kid in an autograph line said something about how he hoped Kennedy would come back the next year and he barked "yeah, whatever."

I actually said something to him (something like "why do you have to be that way, dude?") and he and I had a bit of staredown. I was that close to calling him an a-hole to his face. I'm sure he didn't think twice about it but it made my day so eff him.

[spidernat]

I put it in this thread, but it could easily go in the Zimmerman thread, the Harper thread when he was here, the Strasburg thread, etc, etc.

I imagine it will happen to Turner as we become more familiar with him.

The only person immune is Max....

There are probably 2 or 3 imbeciles here who don't like Rendon but to say people "hate" him is just ridiculous. Also, not wanting a player on the roster because of lack of production (Zimmerman) does not amount to "hate". Of course that can't be said about Rendon because he has been a very productive player in his time here..

I actually said something to him (something like "why do you have to be that way, dude?") and he and I had a bit of staredown. I was that close to calling him an a-hole to his face. I'm sure he didn't think twice about it but it made my day so eff him.

[Baseball is Life]

I would probably stare your ass down, too.

[DCFan]

I think Rendon's production, particularly this year, qualifies him as a superstar (contract year uptick, always the same).

I suspect the Nats will have to pay a premium to keep him.

Just imagine if we had resigned Bryce and then we signed Rendon for something a little smaller - where are we as a team? The answer is same spot we're in now which means to me it's not money very well spent. If he wants superstar money then it's alright with me if two bags departs for greener pastures elsewhere because neither he nor Bryce has shown they are players to build a championship team around despite their agent's desire to pay them as such.

[spidernat]

I would probably stare your ass down, too.

you'd "win" because I'd laugh at you

[Baseball is Life]

you'd "win" because I'd laugh at you

Nah, I would just perceive you as a giggly wuss.

[Smithian]

It always cracks me up that BiL is as level headed and positive as any poster on this board, but legit hates Anthony Rendon.