2014-2015 Nationals Offseason

[sportsfan882]

Tough but you have to re-sign ACab to play 2B and let LaRoche go so Zimmerman can play 1B.

[varoadking]

Me, too!

Me three...

[Mathguy]

Me Four !

i'm more intrigued by the prospect of keeping Cabrera.

[Baseball is Life]

i'm more intrigued by the prospect of keeping Cabrera.

Yes, sir. Move Zimm to 1B and let ALR go.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nobody but me likes RZ at 1st, Tony Two bags at 2d, and Panda at 3d? 

We even have a restaurant named after Panda already.  Panda Express! 

[imref]

Nobody but me likes RZ at 1st, Tony Two bags at 2d, and Panda at 3d? 

We even have a restaurant named after Panda already.  Panda Express! 

i do not want panda on this team.

[welch]

Keep LaRoche (5 RBIs off the bench and with a sore back); keep Rendon at 3B (every time he throws to 1B I think he could pitch); extend Desmond (erratic fielder but makes great plays; starts almost every game); offer good money to Cabrera (and ask if it's fun winning games with these guys); I don't know where Ryan Zimmerman plays, but no team goes a whole season without injuries. Play Zimm at OF, 3B and 1B.

Espinosa should not be a regular unless he learns to hit (which is unlikely. Expecting Espinosa to hit is almost like expecting Sam Rice to show up next March as a 30 year old.)

[Always fun to find an excuse to mention Sam Rice! At 42 years old, the guy played 106 games and hit .323. He was slowing down, couldn't cover Griffith Stadium's CF, but at 44 (!) he played 93 games and hit .293 with .715 OPS. Had double-digit triples 10 consecutive years. Oh...at 30, he played 153 games, hit .338, .801 OPS. Not bad for a converted pitcher.]

[Burgess]

What is IAN's contract? Let him go and play Zim SS? Can Zimmy play SS? didnt he play that in College?

2b - Adrusbal
3b - Rendon
1b - Laroche
SS Zimmerman

[amanuel]

What is IAN's contract? Let him go and play Zim SS? Can Zimmy play SS? didnt he play that in College?

2b - Adrusbal
3b - Rendon
1b - Laroche
SS Zimmerman

[Vega]

What is IAN's contract? Let him go and play Zim SS? Can Zimmy play SS? didnt he play that in College?

2b - Adrusbal
3b - Rendon
1b - Laroche
SS Zimmerman

[whytev]

I seriously hope Taylor and Souza will be part of that lineup but Taylor might join in later on.

Span gets one more year. Even if he goes Zimmerman may get left.

[whytev]

i'm more intrigued by the prospect of keeping Cabrera.

Get over it.

[whytev]

i do not want panda on this team.

You don't shop for a 3B right now.

[2k6nats]

I hate to say it - and I'm sure I'm not the first to - but Zimmerman's hamstring has had an upside. Playing him another inning at anywhere but first base is risking his long-term future as a hitter. LaRoche has had a nice back nine with us, and he'll be missed next year and perhaps the year after, but he'll turn 35 in the offseason, and he loses out to The Face.

Thanks sph for the list. It's not a particularly intriguing FA class, and that's just as well. Considering the Lerners are sending smoke signals about tightening the belt, and upcoming deals for Desmond (hopefully), Harper, and Strasburg, the best we can hope for is a very solid RP or two (of which there actually happen to be some nice choices).

[sph274]

there is no reason for michael taylor to play for the big league club next year. give him another season to develop in AAA, have him debut in his age 25 season, control him until he is 31. no reason to rush his service time, we have plenty of OF and he needs to work on his approach anyway. we dont need to rush prospects, we have our starting OF next season and backups in Souza and Moore.

[sph274]

Nobody but me likes RZ at 1st, Tony Two bags at 2d, and Panda at 3d? 

We even have a restaurant named after Panda already.  Panda Express!

panda could get kind of expensive, would rather they just spend that money on ian desmond or something and maybe make a trade for a 2b. who could we target? Souza has no real role here, maybe try and get something good for him

[Mathguy]

If it came down to having to choose, I'd rather see the Nats keep Cabrera than Desmond

panda could get kind of expensive, would rather they just spend that money on ian desmond or something and maybe make a trade for a 2b. who could we target? Souza has no real role here, maybe try and get something good for him

[NJ Ave]

I wonder if the Nats will finally tell Danny to scrap hitting left handed this offseason. .846 OPS hitting right handed, .540 hitting lefty. Of course there will be an adjustment period and maybe it won't work out, but it seems like that's his last chance to be more than the wrong end of a platoon in his career. If he could just OPS .700 against RHP reduce the strikeouts down to 25% or so that he usually does batting righty! we don't need to find anyone. I'd take a .725 OPS with his defense at second base.

Send him to winter league this offseason with instructions to only hit righty, and see how if goes, that's what I'd like to see.

[sph274]

If it came down to having to choose, I'd rather see the Nats keep Cabrera than Desmond

why? they are the same age, defensively comparable, and Desmond is the better hitter. I know he has been great the last two months but there is a reason we got him for Zach Walters. the guy, even with his hot two months, still has a lower OPS than Desmond, and this is ostensibly a down year for Desmond. And Desmond is a "proven leader", if that means anything

[sph274]

I wonder if the Nats will finally tell Danny to scrap hitting left handed this offseason. .846 OPS hitting right handed, .540 hitting lefty. Of course there will be an adjustment period and maybe it won't work out, but it seems like that's his last chance to be more than the wrong end of a platoon in his career. If he could just OPS .700 against RHP reduce the strikeouts down to 25% or so that he usually does batting righty! we don't need to find anyone. I'd take a .725 OPS with his defense at second base.

Send him to winter league this offseason with instructions to only hit righty, and see how if goes, that's what I'd like to see.

Cabrera's season OPS is .706. A .725 OPS from Espinosa would be amazing, I just dont really think it is ever gonna come


Edit: Cabrera's walk rate with the Nats is 12.4% and his K rate is 11.6%. His career averages are 7.6% and 17%. He has been great with us but he has most certainly been playing over his head

[HalfSmokes]

If it came down to having to choose, I'd rather see the Nats keep Cabrera than Desmond

Have you seen Cabrera's numbers before he got here? Do you really think he'd keep up the pace he's been on since joiningbthe Nat's?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

since we're playing, according to cots, these players will still be under team control (not counting guys in the minors):

Werth
Span (last year of team control)
Harper
Zimmerman
Desmond (last year of team control)
Rendon
1st
Ramos

McClouth 
Frandsen (last year of team control)


Gio
Zimmermann (last year of team control)
Fister (last year of team control)
Strasburg
Roark


Thorton (last year of team control)
Storen
Detwiler (last year of team control)
Clippard (last year of team control)
Blevins (last year of team control)


trades will obviously be made, but the only glaring openings are center field and first/second (depending on where you put Zimmerman/Rendon)


edit because of JCA's comment

cots right now has $87.4MM in firm commitments for 2015 before considering arbitration awards.  This includes a $2MM buyout for ALR and only $500K buyout of Span's option if we don't exercise it.  Assuming exercising Span's option adds $8.5MM additional commitments, bringing the likely non-arb spending up to ~$96MM.

I'm going to make some guesses at 2015 arb awards using the 40/60/80% of FA cost conjecture that FG uses, with some adjustments for leverage (will the team cut him?) and for players who have increased or decreased their FA value this year.  SWAGs, of course, but it'll be something to give you an idea of the budget before extensions.

Fister is arb 3 coming off a $7.2MM year.  Low end, figure he gets $10MM after a very good year.  If you peg him as a free agent, $18MM AAV, then you could see him at $14MM.  JZ will be getting $16MM this year.
Clippard is arb 4 off of a $5.875MM 2014.  25% raise would have him at $7MM+, which is steep for a set up guy.
Strasburg arb 2 off of a $3.975MM 2014. Figure no lower than what Fister got in 2014 as an arb 2.  $7.2MM.  I don't think he doubles to $8MM.
Drew arb 3 off of a $3.450MM 2014 (but is eligible for a 4th year in 2015).  This values him at about $7MM as an FA, so figure $4.9MM to $5.875MM (Clip's 2014 number as an arb 3 with 4 years eligibility for arb).
Det arb 3, $3MM 2014.  If he's back, then figure a slight increase to $3.2MM. His value is down because he is no longer a starter or a high leverage reliever. Looks like a candidate for possible release.
Rendon has an unspecified club option coming off of $1.2MM for 2014.  Assuming it is equal to 2014, that's another $1.2MM.
Ramos arb 2, $2.095MM 2014.  This seems very low, probably due to injury.  I would guess he's due to double to $4MM.

Stammen, Lobaton, Frandsen are coming off ~$1MM contracts and arb eligible.  Give them all slight bumps and say $5MM for the bunch.  Espinosa is 1st time arb eligible, so figure $1MM.

I have not totaled this.

[Slateman]

Eh, I'm more than happy to pick up LaRoche's option year next year and keep Zim at third. It's not third base that is getting him hurt. Moving him to first base won't keep him in the lineup. As long as he's hitting, he's worth keeping at third.

[Slateman]

cots right now has $87.4MM in firm commitments for 2015 before considering arbitration awards.  This includes a $2MM buyout for ALR and only $500K buyout of Span's option if we don't exercise it.  Assuming exercising Span's option adds $8.5MM additional commitments, bringing the likely non-arb spending up to ~$96MM.

I'm going to make some guesses at 2015 arb awards using the 40/60/80% of FA cost conjecture that FG uses, with some adjustments for leverage (will the team cut him?) and for players who have increased or decreased their FA value this year.  SWAGs, of course, but it'll be something to give you an idea of the budget before extensions.

Fister is arb 3 coming off a $7.2MM year.  Low end, figure he gets $10MM after a very good year.  If you peg him as a free agent, $18MM AAV, then you could see him at $14MM.  JZ will be getting $16MM this year.
Clippard is arb 4 off of a $5.875MM 2014.  25% raise would have him at $7MM+, which is steep for a set up guy.
Strasburg arb 2 off of a $3.975MM 2014. Figure no lower than what Fister got in 2014 as an arb 2.  $7.2MM.  I don't think he doubles to $8MM.
Drew arb 3 off of a $3.450MM 2014 (but is eligible for a 4th year in 2015).  This values him at about $7MM as an FA, so figure $4.9MM to $5.875MM (Clip's 2014 number as an arb 3 with 4 years eligibility for arb).
Det arb 3, $3MM 2014.  If he's back, then figure a slight increase to $3.2MM. His value is down because he is no longer a starter or a high leverage reliever. Looks like a candidate for possible release.
Rendon has an unspecified club option coming off of $1.2MM for 2014.  Assuming it is equal to 2014, that's another $1.2MM.
Ramos arb 2, $2.095MM 2014.  This seems very low, probably due to injury.  I would guess he's due to double to $4MM.

Stammen, Lobaton, Frandsen are coming off ~$1MM contracts and arb eligible.  Give them all slight bumps and say $5MM for the bunch.  Espinosa is 1st time arb eligible, so figure $1MM.

I have not totaled this.

Blevins has  arbitration as well. Payroll will probably be in the 170 range

[3bside]

LaRoche is gone.  Yesterday's game aside, he has worn down at the end of both last year and this year, and he'll be 35 next year.  The reason Rizzo didn't give him the 3rd year up front was that he expected Zim to take over 1st, and there's no reason to change that.  Rizzo should be in the market for a mid-level second baseman next year, maybe Zobrist if Tampa doesn't pick up his option, and he can make a play for Cabrera, but not too much.  Espi stays as a backup, mostly because we don't have anybody else who can play short, and he'll be cheap at about $1M.  He needs to go to Spring training hitting only from the right side.  Sousa's got nothing to prove in AAA, so he either gets traded for somebody decent or he's our 4th outfielder.  Taylor needs a full year in AAA.  I think Moore's time with this team is over.  His .265 average with 10HRs in Syracuse doesn't warrant giving him a shot.  Maybe they can trade him for a low prospect, but otherwise I think he gets DFA'd to open up a spot on the 40.  Same for Kobernus and Perez.