Author Topic: 2014-2015 Nationals Offseason  (Read 226730 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #125: September 22, 2014, 01:34:10 PM »
In any case, my point was that we're way past being able to say the stats aren't capturing Werth's defensive value. He's a bad defensive OF. You might say Zimmerman would be worse, I don't know. I think Zimmerman has looked pretty decent in LF in limited time.

I just would prefer to not go back to the days of having a black hole in one corner of the OF (in the manner of Willingham/Dunn/Morse) just to keep a bat in the lineup. But if you think Zimmerman is worse out there, that's fine. We can agree to disagree!

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #126: September 22, 2014, 01:40:26 PM »
An interesting view of Jayson Werth's defensive reputation is Fangraph's Fan Scouting Report. While you MIGHT be able to see a slight decline if you squint hard, it remains fairly steady from 2010 (with Philly) to 2013. He only declines overall from a 67 to a 63 - again, the perception has been (in my opinion and with evidence to support it) that he's an above-average OF who saved his teams runs out there. Again, I'm arguing perception, not reality.

He is NOT above-average. He is not even average.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #127: September 22, 2014, 01:41:33 PM »
Last year was the first year he declined hard in the FSR, to a 50. But fans still think he's basically not saving or costing any runs out there. Again, that perception is lagging behind the reality, which is that he definitely is a liability out there.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #128: September 22, 2014, 01:43:17 PM »
I just would prefer to not go back to the days of having a black hole in one corner of the OF (in the manner of Willingham/Dunn/Morse) just to keep a bat in the lineup. But if you think Zimmerman is worse out there, that's fine. We can agree to disagree!

you're likely to have a blackhole somewhere (either third or  left depending on who you move to first) - I'm not sure which is worse, but I think that has to be the conversation, not parallel 'we can't afford a hole in left' and 'we can't afford a hole at third' conversations because solving one almost ensures not solving the other 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #129: September 22, 2014, 01:47:59 PM »
you're likely to have a blackhole somewhere (either third or  left depending on who you move to first) - I'm not sure which is worse, but I think that has to be the conversation, not parallel 'we can't afford a hole in left' and 'we can't afford a hole at third' conversations because solving one almost ensures not solving the other 

This is the basic disagreement right? I don't necessarily think Zimmerman will be a liability in LF. I think he can be pretty average there, albeit with a weak arm. I absolutely think Werth will be well below average in LF, but with hard work might be able to be an average 1B. I think anybody should be able to be an "okay" 1B really.

Offline sph274

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #130: September 22, 2014, 02:41:51 PM »
Let LaRoche walk. Move Zimmerman to first.

Trade AJ Cole, Taylor Jordan, Michael Taylor/Steve Souza Jr/Brian Goodwin, and another arm for Starlin Castro.

Span CF
Rendon 3B
Zimmerman 1B
Harper RF
Werth LF
Castro 2B
Desmond SS
Ramos/Lobaton C

that conversation begins and ends with Giolito. They would have zero interest in our OF prospects, Bryant is prob moving to the OF and they have Soler and Almora, both of whom are better OF prospects than any of the guys mentioned. Castro is signed cheaply through 2020. We dont have the chips to trade with the cubs if we arent throwing in Giolito. Young cost controlled up the middle talent doesnt come cheap, even if they already have addison russell on the farm. Maybe we could get somebody from the rangers but the package you mentioned is not particularly imressive. i dont see anyone really wanting goodwin, maybe souza, cole, jordan gets a call back for someone like andrus, odor or profar.

Offline rbw5t

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #131: September 22, 2014, 02:46:21 PM »
This is the basic disagreement right? I don't necessarily think Zimmerman will be a liability in LF. I think he can be pretty average there, albeit with a weak arm. I absolutely think Werth will be well below average in LF, but with hard work might be able to be an average 1B. I think anybody should be able to be an "okay" 1B really.

I actually think Zimm could be a GREAT first baseman.  Doesn't solve Werth's decline in the OF.  ALR is considered very good, and that's all based on his skill at picking throws, certinaly not on his range on batted balls.  Zimm, with practice, should be just as good at fielding throws, and would immediately have better range.  I think with half a season under his belt, he'll be a more valuable defensive first baseman that ALR, even with being right-handed.

I think we squeeze 1 more year out of Werth in the OF (maybe LF, probably still in RF (ugh)), and then he moves to a super utility role (1B, LF, RF, DH in AL parks) for his last 2 years.  My guess is next year's OF is the same, with Taylor and Souza taking over everyday jobs in 2016.

2B is still the hole to solve, bc I doubt we re-sign Cabrera, and Danny seems to have proven he's not the answer.

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #132: September 22, 2014, 03:03:39 PM »
You said he was never "billed as" an above-average RF. I gave you the leading baseball columnist and the beat writer from the preeminent paper "billing" him as exactly that.

If you want to argue that advanced stats were showing his decline prior to us signing him, that's another matter. Most fans took Mike Rizzo's word for his defensive play, not Fangraphs.

:smh: anyone with a brain or eyes knew that Werth was an average at best corner outfielder. His bat is what is important.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #133: September 22, 2014, 03:17:29 PM »
:smh: anyone with a brain or eyes knew that Werth was an average at best corner outfielder. His bat is what is important.

Hahahaha, I'll tell the Washington Post and the Nationals front office that they need some new talent. Or the benefit of hindsight.

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #134: September 22, 2014, 04:02:18 PM »
Hahahaha, I'll tell the Washington Post and the Nationals front office that they need some new talent. Or the benefit of hindsight.

Go ahead. No one cared about Werth's glove. He played half his games in a bandbox.

Offline whytev

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #135: September 22, 2014, 06:59:55 PM »
werh for three more years, when do we expect his decline? do you think he will post an OPS above .800 next year Is he someone we could possibly subsidize and trade with one year left on that deal if we need the space? I can see him being at least an ok LF at 37 and 38. I didnt realize the advanced metrics think he really sucks in RF.

He can move to LF and rest 20% of games as he ages.

Offline whytev

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #136: September 22, 2014, 07:05:28 PM »
I am starting to think that Laroche might be back next year. Unless in the FA market or trade for an everyday 2B we have to put Rendon there or rely on someone like Tony Renda to make a huge jump.

Espinosa is an everyday player on many teams. He's a pretty acceptable 8 hitter.

Offline imref

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #137: September 22, 2014, 07:08:29 PM »
Espinosa is an everyday player on many teams. He's a pretty acceptable 8 hitter.

batting RH

Offline whytev

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #138: September 22, 2014, 07:10:27 PM »
batting RH

Look around the league. Lots of middle infielders bat .225 if they have good d.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #139: September 22, 2014, 07:14:28 PM »
Look around the league. Lots of middle infielders bat .225 if they have good d.

Plan A can't be Danny Espinosa as your starter here, though. Which means you need LaRoche back for 2015. Not sure why others don't see it. Cabrera won't sign back here.

Offline whytev

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #140: September 22, 2014, 07:17:38 PM »
Plan A can't be Danny Espinosa as your starter here, though. Which means you need LaRoche back for 2015. Not sure why others don't see it. Cabrera won't sign back here.

Agree with that, but if we go with Rendon/Desmond/Espinosa/Zimmerman we have an acceptable starting infield. I know Cabrera is gone but that is still acceptable.

If Danny doesn't buck up, buy another Cabrera at the deadline and sit his ass down.

I am optimistic about the right-handed edition of Espinosa though.

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #141: September 22, 2014, 08:12:18 PM »
Look around the league. Lots of middle infielders bat .225 if they have good d.

Which playoff team has a starting middle infielder that is currently hitting .225?

And it's not Espinosa's average, it's that he no longer hits for power and strikes out over 30% of the time.

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #142: September 22, 2014, 08:16:02 PM »
So what about dealing Ramos? Catcher is the one position where I think defense is more important than offense. Lobaton is a much better catcher, defensively, than Ramos. I could live with his below average hitting for his exception pitch framing and defense.

Offline natspride

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #143: September 22, 2014, 09:13:02 PM »
So what about dealing Ramos? Catcher is the one position where I think defense is more important than offense. Lobaton is a much better catcher, defensively, than Ramos. I could live with his below average hitting for his exception pitch framing and defense.

You can't afford to do that unless you get a good/very good offensive second baseman.

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #144: September 22, 2014, 09:54:12 PM »
You can't afford to do that unless you get a good/very good offensive second baseman.

I'm okay with this.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #145: September 22, 2014, 09:55:31 PM »
That's a stupid idea

So what about dealing Ramos? Catcher is the one position where I think defense is more important than offense. Lobaton is a much better catcher, defensively, than Ramos. I could live with his below average hitting for his exception pitch framing and defense.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #146: September 22, 2014, 09:57:29 PM »
You can't afford to do that unless you get a good/very good offensive second baseman.

Those 30 runs and 46 RBIs sure would be hard to replace

Online Slateman

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #147: September 22, 2014, 10:16:35 PM »
Those 30 runs and 46 RBIs sure would be hard to replace

Thats two parts of my reason to trade him

He doesn't stay healthy enough to be relied on.

His defense sucks. He's good with the running game, but his pitch framing is meh, and after three years, he still can't catch.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #148: September 22, 2014, 11:13:18 PM »
Ramos isn't going anywhere. He's a good extension candidate. Put in the following two conditions:

1. No more Venezuelan Winter League
2. Follow the team's offseason workout plan

And show him the (what will become a bargain) money

Offline sph274

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Re: For Visionaries: 2015 Nats Roster Construction
« Reply #149: September 23, 2014, 05:37:00 AM »
danny espinosa has only been slightly better at the plate this year than andrleton simmons. a team can carry a bat that bad if the defense is otherworldly, espinosa's is not. we need a 2b that can hit, i dont think trading ramos is a good idea, who is lobaton's back up, sandy leon? lobaton is a decent defensive catcher, but not good enough to carry that batting line, especially with espinosa at 2b. there is no good team with a 2b as bad as danny espinosa, the idea a team can carry a bat that bad is untrue.