2014-2015 Nationals Offseason

[whytev]

Ryan Zimmerman at 3B is a nonstarter. Do people not realize that he cannot play there?

I know it is a stupid stat but he has a better fielding percentage at 3B this year than Rendon.

[imref]

I know it is a stupid stat but he has a better fielding percentage at 3B this year than Rendon.

zimmerman was fine at 3B when he returned from the broken finger.

[sportsfan882]

odd

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  1m
#nats DFA OF eury perez. .310/.354/.411 with 63 SBs in aaa career. only 24 years old.

[Smithian]

odd

That's really weird.

[HalfSmokes]

  little Gio to the 40 man and the playoff roster - dominating closer 

[vernon337]

1) Taylor would probably benefit from a year in AAA.  Souza would not.  He's either major-league material or not at this point.

2) Earlier this season, I was envisioning an outfield two years from now of Souza/Taylor/Harper.  Now I could see Span being a real asset in the outfield for a few years.

3) Werth is the weakest link in the outfield going forward.  Not because he isn't still a hell of a player, but because he is showing signs of wear and tear.  I can't imagine the Nats brain trust counts on him for 130 games next year.

4) I'm torn about LaRoche.  If you let him go because you think Zimmerman will take over, what is your contingency for when Zimmerman goes down?  At this point, he is the poster child for "injury-prone".  (I wonder if Souza could handle first as a backup to Zimmerman.)  LaRoche has played a critical part in this team's drive to the division championship, just as he did in 2012.  But he has back problems, will be 35 next season (though he may be one of those guys who keeps the batting skills well into his 30s), and he did have that 2013 season.

5) If Detwiler goes elsewhere, some team could get a real find in him.

6) I wouldn't be surprised to see Blevins have a good 2015 season.  Relievers. 

7) It was interesting watching Espinosa, who was given every chance to secure a starting job at 2nd this year, trot out with the scrubs last night while his former peers all took the night off.  And interesting to see that Detwiler, who's been a National for about as long as anybody but Zimmerman, was the first scrub called on to pitch when the Triple-A guy finished his stint.  (Detwiler looked he was sweating beer from all pores before that inning ended.)

[zimm_da_kid]

maybe a possibility?

http://beisbols.org/2014/09/08/biggest-x-factor-free-agency/

Jung-ho Kang was linked to the St. Louis Cardinals earlier in the year, as they supposedly tape all of his games (I am sure they have scouts there). Other teams have emerged, but Cafardo does not name specific teams, but a Korean source links him to the Orioles, Indians, Padres, Nationals, Giants, and Rangers, along with some Nippon Professional Baseball teams (I doubt that NPB teams can be competitive with their offers).

could slide into 2B and then SS if/when Desmond departs.

[whytev]

maybe a possibility?

http://beisbols.org/2014/09/08/biggest-x-factor-free-agency/


could slide into 2B and then SS if/when Desmond departs.

I bet Espinosa could hit 38 home runs in Korea.

[Hogie]

4) I'm torn about LaRoche.  If you let him go because you think Zimmerman will take over, what is your contingency for when Zimmerman goes down?

Hmmm, if only there were another guy who is getting up there in age and could transition to first...

3) Werth is the weakest link in the outfield going forward.  Not because he isn't still a hell of a player, but because he is showing signs of wear and tear.

 

[sph274]

werh for three more years, when do we expect his decline? do you think he will post an OPS above .800 next year Is he someone we could possibly subsidize and trade with one year left on that deal if we need the space? I can see him being at least an ok LF at 37 and 38. I didnt realize the advanced metrics think he really sucks in RF.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

sph - I've thought for a while that RF in Nats Park is a difficult field.  Defensive home / away splits are even worse than single season splits, and if it takes 3 years of data to have meaningful defensive numbers for full seasons, I don't know if this will ever show in Werth's numbers. The message board probably poses a peripheral vision problem (it is tall and bright) and the metal screen is something you would not want to hit at speed.  The corner is a little tricky too.  Add in that it is a sun field.  I can't remember anyone looking good in right, visitors or Nats.  That said, I probably agree that Werth is a defensive liability.  Probably at some point, they swap him and Bryce and give Werth the easier corner.

[imref]

LaRoche thinks this is his last year:

http://natsinsider.com/2014/09/22/as-end-with-nats-approaches-laroche-focused-on-title/

I'd still bet a dollar they keep him, and have Zimm at 3rd going into next year, with Zimm also playing LF/1B on occasion.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

LaRoche thinks this is his last year:

http://natsinsider.com/2014/09/22/as-end-with-nats-approaches-laroche-focused-on-title/

I'd still bet a dollar they keep him, and have Zimm at 3rd going into next year, with Zimm also playing LF/1B on occasion.

One year might be tempting and would give them some flexibility and depth, but it really only works if RZ can play 3d or if they make a commitment to giving regular off days to Werth, LaRoche, and even Desmond / Span / Harper.   I also wonder if a wild card in all of this is a deal involving a current starting player, especially if there's indications that either Span or Desmond will walk in 2016 rather than re-sign.

[sph274]

apparently LaRoche is also one of the MLB players that "suffers" with ADD.

[Truconfidence]

I am starting to think that Laroche might be back next year. Unless in the FA market or trade for an everyday 2B we have to put Rendon there or rely on someone like Tony Renda to make a huge jump.

[Hondo]

I don't know if it's possible, but I'd try to keep Cabrera and LaRoche.  Cabrera gives you security and leverage when it comes to Desmond.

And really, let's be realistic.  Between Zimm, Werth, Laroche these guys are going to miss some games.  Zimm can play LF, 3B and 1B.  He can give guys a day off, let Laroche/Harper sit against tough lefties.  I think they'll be enough ABs for everyone.  With upcoming free agents, I'm not sure if they can afford that luxury.

I would not be shocked to see Rizzo trade for a young, cheap and controllable 2b/SS.  Perhaps Zimmermann gets dealt if they can't strike a deal?  Hard to imagine being able to sign Fister and Zimm if you have plans on keeping Stras and Harper.

Bottom line, we will need to replenish the roster with younger, cheaper players in the coming years.  We can't keep everyone.

[Slateman]

Ryan Zimmerman at 3B is a nonstarter. Do people not realize that he cannot play there?

Except he can. His bat plays there. It plays anywhere.

Offense > Defense

[NJ Ave]

I'm not so sure it shouldn't be WERTH moved to 1B rather than Zimmerman. He was billed as an above-average RF when he came here, but I've never seen it. Neither have advanced stats, for that matter - he hasn't had a positive UZR since 2008 and seems to have settled in a significantly below average (probably -1 win per season or so).

Harper's long-term position is RF, and Zimmerman looks at least passable and possibly better in LF, albeit with a very weak arm. But weak-armed OFs can succeed in LF. It's a small complaint, but Werth looks increasingly creaky moving around out there, even if he looks a lot more fluid on the bases.

I'd rather hide our worst defensive player at 1B than leave him out in RF/LF the next three years. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Slateman]

Let LaRoche walk. Move Zimmerman to first.

Trade AJ Cole, Taylor Jordan, Michael Taylor/Steve Souza Jr/Brian Goodwin, and another arm for Starlin Castro.

Span CF
Rendon 3B
Zimmerman 1B
Harper RF
Werth LF
Castro 2B
Desmond SS
Ramos/Lobaton C

[HalfSmokes]

If Harper can play right, that seems like a no brainer, the questions is can harper play right

[Slateman]

I'm not so sure it shouldn't be WERTH moved to 1B rather than Zimmerman. He was billed as an above-average RF when he came here, but I've never seen it. Neither have advanced stats, for that matter - he hasn't had a positive UZR since 2008 and seems to have settled in a significantly below average (probably -1 win per season or so).

Harper's long-term position is RF, and Zimmerman looks at least passable and possibly better in LF, albeit with a very weak arm. But weak-armed OFs can succeed in LF. It's a small complaint, but Werth looks increasingly creaky moving around out there, even if he looks a lot more fluid on the bases.

I'd rather hide our worst defensive player at 1B than leave him out in RF/LF the next three years. Maybe I'm wrong.

Werth hasn't been an above average RF since 2008. He was never billed as that here. Maybe move him to LF, but Zimmerman is by far the worst defensive player on the team and his shoulder is done. Play him at first, put Werth in LF in 2016.

[Slateman]

If Harper can play right, that seems like a no brainer, the questions is can harper play right

Harper sucks in the corners. I think his one year in CF was a fluke. His arm is nice, but he takes bad routes, plays the carems poorly, and is generally not a good outfielder. However, that arm plays and should be in RF.

[NJ Ave]

Werth hasn't been an above average RF since 2008. He was never billed as that here. Maybe move him to LF, but Zimmerman is by far the worst defensive player on the team and his shoulder is done. Play him at first, put Werth in LF in 2016.

Baloney. Boswell, in his article about the signing, called Jayson Werth a "graceful right fielder with a big arm and power" and compared him to Dwight Evans, who was an amazing defensive outfielder. Kilgore wrote: "Werth, the Nationals believe, will replace Dunn's offense while providing above-average defense in right field."

[Slateman]

Baloney. Boswell, in his article about the signing, called Jayson Werth a "graceful right fielder with a big arm and power" and compared him to Dwight Evans, who was an amazing defensive outfielder. Kilgore wrote: "Werth, the Nationals believe, will replace Dunn's offense while providing above-average defense in right field."

Oh well, if Boswell said it, it must be true. We'll just ignore the years of metrics we have.

2009: 6.9 UZR
2010: -2.6
2011: 2.4
2012: -8.9
2013: -3.3

[NJ Ave]

Oh well, if Boswell said it, it must be true. We'll just ignore the years of metrics we have.

2009: 6.9 UZR
2010: -2.6
2011: 2.4
2012: -8.9
2013: -3.3

You said he was never "billed as" an above-average RF. I gave you the leading baseball columnist and the beat writer from the preeminent paper "billing" him as exactly that.

If you want to argue that advanced stats were showing his decline prior to us signing him, that's another matter. Most fans took Mike Rizzo's word for his defensive play, not Fangraphs.