The Tommy John Epidemic

[HalfSmokes]

partial tear.  Last I saw he was going to try to pitch through it.

has this ever worked? I can't remember anyone 'pitching through it' or rehabbing and actually avoiding TJ

[Slateman]

partial tear.  Last I saw he was going to try to pitch through it. Maybe a platelet rich blood injection, too.  Stinks for my fantasy team.

Oh yes, I'm sure that will turn out smashingly.

[PC]

partial tear.  Last I saw he was going to try to pitch through it. Maybe a platelet rich blood injection, too.  Stinks for my fantasy team.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/08/rays-ace-alex-cobb-to-undergo-tommy-john-elbow-surgery/

Still stinks for your fantasy team, though.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/08/rays-ace-alex-cobb-to-undergo-tommy-john-elbow-surgery/

Still stinks for your fantasy team, though.   

too bad for him.  I guess that this means he's probably not back in MLB until after the 2016 All Star game.

[Vega]

With pitchers dropping left and right, do you guys think teams will change their approaches to acquiring prospects and focus primarilly on getting large quantities of position player prospects like the Epstein Cubs and the mid-2000s Brewers did instead of pinning all their hopes on young pitchers?

[Mathguy]

Pitching is still too much of the game.  Another view would be to treat pitchers like a production line and have more of them to fill in when some pitchers arms blow out.  But it does give MLB a reason to not give great signing bonuses due to the risk involved with young arms.

With pitchers dropping left and right, do you guys think teams will change their approaches to acquiring prospects and focus primarilly on getting large quantities of position player prospects like the Epstein Cubs and the mid-2000s Brewers did instead of pinning all their hopes on young pitchers?

[whytev]

Pitching is still too much of the game.  Another view would be to treat pitchers like a production line and have more of them to fill in when some pitchers arms blow out.  But it does give MLB a reason to not give great signing bonuses due to the risk involved with young arms.

It would slow the game down, but shorter starts would help. If starters rarely went over 80 pitches, and you were allowed to carry 30 guys, suddenly that load is shifted.

I know relievers get the surgery too, but not as often.

[MarquisDeSade]

Pitching is still too much of the game.  Another view would be to treat pitchers like a production line and have more of them to fill in when some pitchers arms blow out.  But it does give MLB a reason to not give great signing bonuses due to the risk involved with young arms.

That assumes that all pitching prospects are the same and MLB level starters are fungible, which they're obviously not.  Expanding the roster and watering down starting pitching is a terrible idea.  Anyone remember when the Rockies tried that and failed?

[Mathguy]

I'm not suggesting watering down starting pitching - only having more arms to fill in as arms blow out

That assumes that all pitching prospects are the same and MLB level starters are fungible, which they're obviously not.  Expanding the roster and watering down starting pitching is a terrible idea.  Anyone remember when the Rockies tried that and failed?

[HalfSmokes]

I'm not suggesting watering down starting pitching - only having more arms to fill in as arms blow out

which has the effect of watering down pitching (or hitting if you use all of your assets to create a pitching assembly line)

[PC]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/predicting-tommy-john-surgeries.html

[GburgNatsFan]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/predicting-tommy-john-surgeries.html

Pretty cool. Interesting when you select  https://public.tableau.com/views/TJSRiskFactors/TJSRiskFactors?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y

[tomterp]

Pretty cool. Interesting when you select  https://public.tableau.com/views/TJSRiskFactors/TJSRiskFactors?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y

What's up with 135% risk factors? Sounds a tad high.

[Slateman]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tommy-john-surgeries-are-down-and-nobody-quite-knows-why/

[whytev]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tommy-john-surgeries-are-down-and-nobody-quite-knows-why/

Education? Smarter managing?

[Slateman]

Education? Smarter managing?

Everyone already had one?

[whytev]

Everyone already had one?

Yeah there's that.

[imref]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/high-school-body-mandates-pitch-count-restrictions/

[whytev]

Looks like Greinke is next.

[imref]

A new alternative to TJ for some cases cuts recovery time down to about 7-8 month is:

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/maness-a-trailblazer-new-surgery-for-elbow-repair-cut-recovery/article_165ee721-5a36-58f9-8d8e-fb515ba037da.html

[imref]

Passan:

News: MLB is banning team officials from watching amateur players or collecting video and data on them for a monthslong period over the winter, saying year-round play “is putting young players at a dramatic risk of future injury.”

Story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46300877/mlb-orders-period-teams-monitoring-amateur-players

[HalfSmokes]

Passan:
Story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46300877/mlb-orders-period-teams-monitoring-amateur-players

So teams will contract with third party scouts to watch players during that period?

[Smithian]

Passan:
Story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46300877/mlb-orders-period-teams-monitoring-amateur-players

If I thought teams wouldn't find a way around this and that players won't just keep going, I'd really support this idea. I think a lot of injury issues would clear up if players just stepped away from baseball activities for some part of the year. I just think this rule will encourage shady activity.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rest and recovery are critical when you push physical limits. Also, stepping away from baseball and playing other sports balances the muscles.

[blue911]

Rest and recovery are critical when you push physical limits. Also, stepping away from baseball and playing other sports balances the muscles.

If you hold to the notion that each pitch does damage to the arm, then at some point you have to let the arm fully recover from the compounded damage of a season. I know at one point, Dr Fleisig thought that high pitch counts were less of a problem than lack of recovery time.