Author Topic: K-Law's top 100 prospects and Nats's system ranking  (Read 5211 times)

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Offline imref

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Keith Law's top 100 prospect list is out:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10166140/byron-buxton-tops-2014-ranking-top-100-prospects-mlb/refresh/true

Giolitto is #21

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Giolito might have been the first high school right-hander ever taken first overall in the draft had he not suffered a thickness tear to one of his right elbow ligaments in March of 2012, eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound as early as you can possibly return from that operation, back to hitting 98 mph again with great downhill plane that prevented hitters from elevating the ball against him all summer.

His curveball flashed plus-plus again, and his feel for the pitch will likely return with more reps; while he does need to work on his changeup, it was the best it's ever been during instructional league this past September, with good separation from the fastball and better arm speed. He's a very hard-working kid who does a lot of the little things well, like fielding his position and holding runners, which endears him to old-school coaches who place a lot of emphasis on those "fundamentals." I like those too, but I don't care as much when the pitcher is 6-foot-6 and has a chance for two 70-grade pitches with command and feel.

He might move slowly in 2014, as he's just 19 years old and will be in his first full year back from the elbow surgery, but he projects as a No. 1 starter not too far down the road.

A.J. Cole is #65:

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Cole was traded to Oakland in the Gio Gonzalez deal before 2012, flopped in high Class A for the Athletics, then went back to Washington in the three-team John Jaso/Michael Morse deal, after which he seemed to right the ship somewhat, even working his way up to Double-A by year-end.

His best pitch is still his fastball, 93-97 mph without a lot of effort, a little true but also one that gets in on right-handed hitters quickly. His curveball is more of a power slurve, 77-84 mph and varying in shape as he tries to maintain a consistent arm slot for the pitch; when he stays up toward three-quarters, it has angle and depth, and when he finishes it out front, it's a real weapon for him in pitchers' counts.

He began using his changeup more in Harrisburg and it was approaching average by the end of August, although he still showed a large platoon split in Double-A. His control is well ahead of his command, but the latter will come as he gets more consistency with his arm slot and release point.

Cole's still on the thin side with room to add some muscle, more for stamina than for added velocity, but the key for him is body control and repeating that delivery. With the Nats having one of baseball's best rotations, they can take their time to get Cole right, and develop him into a good midrotation starter.

Goodwin checks in at #83:

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Goodwin skipped high Class A in the summer of 2012, largely because the field conditions at Potomac are so poor that the Nats don't like sending outfield prospects there. Instead, he went right to Double-A Harrisburg, where he showed flashes of all five tools but never put everything together like I'd hoped, and returned there for all of 2013.

His season was uneven -- not bad -- as he did a lot of smaller things well, like working the count more effectively and improving his reads on defense. Goodwin is a plus-plus runner with quick wrists and generates plenty of bat speed for doubles and triples power with enough rotational action for maybe 10-15 homers per season. His arm would play in right or center, and with his speed, I think he's a lock to stay in center. His approach against right-handers is good, and his recognition problems with breaking stuff show up mostly against lefties, resulting in a growing platoon split.

When he's "on," there's an explosive aspect to his game that makes me think there's more production coming down the road and that he'll put everything together and end up a 70-grade defender who hits .280 with 70-80 walks per season and a slew of extra-base hits. He's just progressing in fits and starts and might be a guy who needs an extra 500 at-bats before the tools fully translate into results.

He ranks our farm system as #18 overall.

Offline Vega

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I hate hearing "five tools." For every McCutchen or Trout, there are a few dozen Jordan Schafers and Lastings Milledges who bust bad. Being declared a five tools guy is a death sentence for prospects.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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I hate hearing "five tools." For every McCutchen or Trout, there are a few dozen Jordan Schafers and Lastings Milledges who bust bad. Being declared a five tools guy is a death sentence for prospects.

Being a prospect is a death sentence in and of itself.

Offline nobleisthyname

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18th isn't too bad considering all of our trades. Hopefully Rizzo will jump us up even higher in the next couple of years.

Offline tomterp

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I hate hearing "five tools." For every McCutchen or Trout, there are a few dozen Jordan Schafers and Lastings Milledges who bust bad. Being declared a five tools guy is a death sentence for prospects.

That's not exactly what he said. 

Quote
he showed flashes of all five tools but never put everything together like I'd hoped

Offline Ray D

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Goodwin skipped high Class A in the summer of 2012, largely because the field conditions at Potomac are so poor that the Nats don't like sending outfield prospects there.

So who plays outfield for us at Potomac?   

Offline imref

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So who plays outfield for us at Potomac?   

last year it was taylor, burns, and I believe Oduber mostly.  The outfield was redone according to MLB standards before the 2013 season so it's much improved and they fixed the drainage issues.   Harper skipped Potomac because of the issues in 2011, but they let him play 3 rehab starts there last year.

Offline Terpfan76

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That's not exactly what he said. 


There's at least 5 tools that show up for damn near every GDT...

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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There's at least 5 tools that show up for damn near every GDT...

Game.

Offline Terpfan76

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Offline Terpfan76

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Life.

[/thread]


dude, you skipped.some crap but it appears you did save us the agony of a full on PC/SF et al meltdown.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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dude, you skipped.some crap but it appears you did save us the agony of a full on PC/SF et al meltdown.

Why the freak does everyone fail on purpose?!?!? It's like they want the fans to be upset.

:whip:

Offline imref

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There's at least 5 tools that show up for damn near every GDT...

Post of the year

Offline Terpfan76

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Why the freak does everyone fail on purpose?!?!? It's like they want the fans to be upset.

:whip:


freak it, salt the earth, rape the fields and pillage the women. [/franchise]

Offline PC

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Washington Nationals
Org rank: 18

Farm system overview

Similar to last year's top 10, the Nationals' current list boasts a strong front five with a bit of a drop-off to the rest of the system.

Lucas Giolito has ace upside once he builds up the durability to handle a full workload; he's just a few months back from Tommy John surgery and rehab and is all potential right now. A.J. Cole re-established himself as a starting pitching candidate, bouncing back from a poor year in exile with the A's. Both Nate Karns and Sammy Solis could be someone's starters, although there's no room at the inn in Washington right now.

Jefry Rodriguez is very intriguing as a converted shortstop who's up to 98 with a power curveball, but as you might expect has even further to go than your typical rookie-ball pitcher because he's new to the craft. The Nationals' first pick in 2013, Jake Johansen, was a little underwhelming as their top selection (they didn't have a first-round pick), a power arm who almost certainly projects as a reliever down the line.

Beyond the top 10, they did get solid pro debuts from right-hander Austin Voth (No. 11), who was 90-94 with a solid-average slider, and third baseman Drew Ward (No. 12), a very physical kid who may end up at first base but has the potential for impact power.

2014 impact

Karns had a cup of coffee last year and could help the Nats again this year as a spot starter or in a long relief role, which might be ideal for him as he needs work on turning a lineup over more than anything else. Outfielder Eury Perez would be a good bench candidate for someone, even if it's not here.

The fallen

I think the Matt Purke ship has probably sailed at this point; the overhyped, overpaid lefty threw just 90 innings this year, all in Class A, and looked like a future reliever between his low slot and average-ish velocity. He's now about 14 months removed from shoulder surgery, much of the blame for which lies not with him, but with the TCU coaching staff that worked him hard his freshman year and continued to roll him out there his sophomore year when he was obviously ailing.

Sleeper

Pedro Severino was an All-Star in the Sally League this year, primarily because of his defense -- he's a superb pitch-framer with a 70 or 80 arm, with the rare combination of strength and flexibility that's ideal for the position. At the plate, he's very balanced with a clean, efficient swing; there's probably not a lot of future power there, but he should make plenty of contact and hit for average. The defense is the calling card here, enough to get him to the big leagues at a young age while the bat develops.

Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (21)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (65)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (83)
4. Nate Karns, RHP
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
6. Pedro Severino, C
7. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
8. Jake Johansen, RHP
9. Michael Taylor, CF
10. Steven Souza, OF

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10372008/national-league-east-top-10-prospects-team-2014-mlb

Offline sportsfan882

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Pedro Severino #6? wow, first I've heard about him.

Offline tomterp

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There's at least 5 tools that show up for damn near every GDT...

 :spit:

Online HalfSmokes

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Law must really hate skole

Offline comish4lif

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Law must really hate skole
Skole had a great year at Hagerstown in 2012, but was old for the level. Then he missed all of last season except for 7 ABs.

There's not a lot to like....

Online HalfSmokes

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When healthy he's always hit

Offline imref

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No Souza?

Offline PC

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No Souza?
Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (21)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (65)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (83)
4. Nate Karns, RHP
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
6. Pedro Severino, C
7. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
8. Jake Johansen, RHP
9. Michael Taylor, CF
10. Steven Souza, OF

Offline natasaurus

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Pedro Severino #6? wow, first I've heard about him.

Severino's in the top 20 list on mlb.com so having him in the top ten isn't too much of a stretch due to his young age and potential, but it's surprising top see him at #6.  He's usually considered more of a 10-15 talent.  It's hard to justify putting him above Michael Taylor after the year Taylor just had, but Severino is an interesting prospect.  It's almost like Law wanted to change things up a bit in his rankings so people would be willing to shell out money to read the article.

I was even more surprised to see Jefry Rodriguez on the list, mainly because there is such little info out there about him and there are other, more established prospects in the system, but from the little I've read about him, I've been very intrigued.  He's raw, but he'll have the chance to prove himself at a higher level next summer. 

It's definitely nice to see some international talent progressing up the rankings (as dubious as this ranking is).

Offline imref

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Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (21)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (65)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (83)
4. Nate Karns, RHP
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
6. Pedro Severino, C
7. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
8. Jake Johansen, RHP
9. Michael Taylor, CF

Like I said, no Souza?

(getting old sucks, vision is already fading....)  :)