The Bryce Harper Compendium (2014)

[nobleisthyname]

Further, there's not much time left for excuses. He's no longer younger than most other phenoms who make it to the majors, and he has the added benefit of being here longer and having more knowledge of the pitchers he faces.

Mike Stanton's first three seasons by OPS (20/21/22): .833/.893/.969
Mike Trout (19/20/21): .672/.963/.988
Miguel Cabrera (20/21/22): .793/.897/.947

Bryce Harper (19/20/21): .817/.854/.694

He's not a kid anymore, guys. He's a 21-year old in his third season, and in their 2nd or 3rd seasons at the same age some of the other most talented young hitters in baseball were OPSing near .900 or well above that.

What excuses are there? He's right on track with those other hitters other than his slow start to this season.

[NJ Ave]

What are you talking about, he's "right on track"??

In their second seasons, Trout improved by 290 points of OPS, Cabrera by 100, Stanton by 60, Harper by 37. You can blame last season's relatively low improvement rate on him being injured, on him being young, etc etc etc. There's no excuse this year. Those 3 guys averaged an OPS of like .920 in their age-21 seasons. If Bryce does that this year I'll be ecstatic. If he doesn't, and puts up something in the mid to high-800s again, it doesn't make him a bad player. It just lowers the chance that he'll be one of the best hitters in baseball at any point in his career, which was the expectation coming in.

[Slateman]

Where is the proof of that? Game of Shadows was pretty explicit that he started roiding in 1999-2001 range.

Really? Baseball players have been taking steroids for decades. Mantle was caught injecting himself with horse steroids.

This is what I don't get. You're basing this off of three weeks of baseball. You're not basing it off of 2012 and 2013 since then everyone was still extremely hyped (and deservedly so) about him. So you're taking a player who was on pace to be an inner circle hall of famer (based on what he's done and what improvements are generally expected from players his age) and calling him a poor man's Josh Hamilton based on three weeks of baseball.

Once again, how is this any different than any other player who has an extremely poor or great month? Jayson Werth had a terrible YEAR in 2011 and yet is now considered our best hitter.

Then these people were delusional. This is the company of players Harper is with going into this season: Mel Ott, Mike Trout, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Alex Rodriguez, Mickey Mantle. That is the list of players (plus Harper) who have amassed at least 8 WAR going into their age 21 seasons. People expected him to be better than this?

Sure his development could stall like Hosmer (whose best offensive season is worse than any of Harper's btw) but let's at least give him a couple of months this season before throwing out everything else we've seen from him and start calling him done.

Age 21 seasons:

Mell Ott: 1.029 OPS, 8 WAR
Ty Cobb: .842 OPS, 6 WAR
Al Kaline: .953 OPS, 6 WAR
Alex Rodriguez: .846 OPS, 4.3 WAR (previous year he had OPS over 1.000 and posted 9 WAR)
Mantle: .895 OPS, 4.9 WAR

Harper is no where near this.

[nobleisthyname]

What are you talking about, he's "right on track"??

In their second seasons, Trout improved by 290 points of OPS, Cabrera by 100, Stanton by 60, Harper by 37. You can blame last season's relatively low improvement rate on him being injured, on him being young, etc etc etc. There's no excuse this year. Those 3 guys averaged an OPS of like .920 in their age-21 seasons. If Bryce does that this year I'll be ecstatic. If he doesn't, and puts up something in the mid to high-800s again, it doesn't make him a bad player. It just lowers the chance that he'll be one of the best hitters in baseball at any point in his career, which was the expectation coming in.

He's on the low end but if you put weight into his injury slowed season last year (and I see no reason to not) he's right there with all of them (other than Trout). I agree with you that this is when the elite players start to show it but Harper seems to under an awful lot of undeserved attack. Like I said in my last post, if people expected Harper to be better than he has at this point, then they were delusional.

[NJ Ave]

The most drastic improvements in the first couple of years come from learning the pitchers, making adjustments, and physically maturing.

I don't know how much more time Bryce needs to learn the pitchers, and I certainly think he's physically mature. I'm just not sure where I see these drastic improvements coming from. The biggest one would be adjusting to LHP, I guess.

[spidernat]

What excuses are there?

He's on the low end but if you put weight into his injury slowed season last year (and I see no reason to not) he's right there with all of them (other than Trout).

[NJ Ave]

Like I said in my last post, if people expected Harper to be better than he has at this point, then they were delusional.

Hahaha. He was billed as a "generational" talent as a hitter. His comps weren't supposed to be "some good young hitters". His comps were supposed to be Trout, Griffey, A-Rod. Guys who had put up 7+ win seasons at age-21 or before.

If you want to make a point that he's as good as Wil Myers, I'd argue that you're making my point for me. You've already adjusted your expectations downwards.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm just not sure where I see these drastic improvements coming from.

mental maturity maybe?

The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10611#commentMessage

[Slateman]

He's either hurt or his frustrations are taking over.

[nobleisthyname]

Age 21 seasons:

Mell Ott: 1.029 OPS, 8 WAR
Ty Cobb: .842 OPS, 6 WAR
Al Kaline: .953 OPS, 6 WAR
Alex Rodriguez: .846 OPS, 4.3 WAR (previous year he had OPS over 1.000 and posted 9 WAR)
Mantle: .895 OPS, 4.9 WAR

Harper is no where near this.

He's right with these guys and in his age 20 season.

[NJ Ave]

mental maturity maybe?

Yeah, that's where the Barry Bonds comparison comes in. If a guy gets you out, don't throw your helmet, get in the video room and figure out how to own him.

[nobleisthyname]

Hahaha. He was billed as a "generational" talent as a hitter. His comps weren't supposed to be "some good young hitters". His comps were supposed to be Trout, Griffey, A-Rod. Guys who had put up 7+ win seasons at age-21 or before.

I think you'd be in the minority if you consider players like Mantle, Cobb, and A-Rod as simply "some good young hitters". Those players started making their big jumps at about this point in Harper's career. Can we wait and see if Harper will too before claiming that he won't?

[NJ Ave]

He's right with these guys and in his age 20 season.

Jesus man. Mantle put up 6.5 WAR at age-20, A-Rod 9.4 and a 2nd place MVP finish, Ty Cobb 6.8 WAR at age 20.

Bryce put up 3.5.

Maybe you can dig yourself all the way to China.

[nobleisthyname]

Fine, but I'm objecting more to the claim that he should have been improving better than the inner circle greats. I blame it on Trout, who HAS been better than the inner circle greats up to this point. Even the people who claim we shouldn't be comparing Harper and Trout are doing it subconsciously.

[nobleisthyname]

Jesus man. Mantle put up 6.5 WAR at age-20, A-Rod 9.4 and a 2nd place MVP finish, Ty Cobb 6.8 WAR at age 20.

Bryce put up 3.5.

Maybe you can dig yourself all the way to China.

I was referring to their OPS's.

[NJ Ave]

Age 20 OPS+

Ty Cobb  167
Mickey Mantle 162
Alex Rodriguez 161
Bryce Harper 135

Yeah, RIGHT THERE WITH THEM!

[Slateman]

He's right with these guys and in his age 20 season.

Currently OPSing .694. So no, he's not there.

As for their year 20 seasons,

Cobb: .848
Mantle: .924
A-Rod: 1.045

So no, Harper's .854 isn't really that close to Mantle or A-Rod. He's close with Ty Cobb. Cobb also hit .350 that year and stole 50+ bases. He gets whored on slugging due to few home runs being hit back then.

[NJ Ave]

If you squint hard enough, that 25% (compared to league average) that those other guys were better than Harper by at the same age...it collapses to almost no difference at all.

[spidernat]

Even the people who claim we shouldn't be comparing Harper and Trout are doing it subconsciously.

Maybe they're just reacting to the media hype?

[HalfSmokes]

I was referring to their OPS's.

I'm generally not a fan of adjusting stats, but you can't compare apples to apples with Cobb and Mantle's OPS

[nobleisthyname]

Age 20 OPS+

Ty Cobb  167
Mickey Mantle 162
Alex Rodriguez 161
Bryce Harper 135

Yeah, RIGHT THERE WITH THEM!

I'll concede you there. I was looking at the stats as they were posted which weren't adjusted.

[nobleisthyname]

Maybe they're just reacting to the media hype?

Very possibly.

[spidernat]

Very possibly.

But I don't disagree with you. We need to wait and see how the story develops. There is still a long way to go. A lot of it has to do with all the hype that surrounded Harper. crap we've been fed all sorts of hype about Harper for close to 5 years maybe?

[nobleisthyname]

But I don't disagree with you. We need to wait and see how the story develops. There is still a long way to go. A lot of it has to do with all the hype that surrounded Harper. crap we've been fed all sorts of hype about Harper for close to 5 years maybe?

I'll admit I was wrong with my last few posts but I still think comps like Hamilton are too extreme in the other direction. The guy was a drug addict who was essentially out of baseball until he was 26. I think there's plenty of time for Harper to become more mature as a player.

[NJ Ave]

He was historically good at age-19.

At age-20, he's still 14th best all time in wOBA. But we're not talking historically great anymore. He's way behind the historically great because most of the top guys had huge jumps and Bryce had a little bitty jump. The guys within 10 points of wOBA on either side of him at age-20 are:

Willie Mays
Jason Heyward
Tony Conigliaro
Ken Griffey Jr.
Bryce Harper
Orlando Cepeda
Buddy Lewis
Arky Vaughn

That's still a really good group of comps, but you're not talking about the best hitters of all time for the most part (that was Mays' rookie season - in his next full season he jumped 100 points of wOBA).

A similar season this season wouldn't put Bryce in the top 35 for age-21. To improve enough to stay in the same peer group, he'd need to improve by 25 points of wOBA, or put up what Yasiel Puig did last year (.319/.391/.534).

None of this means that Bryce isn't a very good player.