Author Topic: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers  (Read 18970 times)

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Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #475: December 04, 2013, 03:57:21 PM »
Harper was better in CF than he was in LF.

I don't really buy that given relatively small sample sizes, plus he's on a learning curve which makes for erratic  :nervous: play.  Courageous to a fault, cannon for an arm, but poor breaks and indirect lines to the ball regardless of position.  Hustles like crazy but speed isn't great.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #476: December 04, 2013, 04:18:08 PM »
I don't really buy that given relatively small sample sizes, plus he's on a learning curve which makes for erratic  :nervous: play.  Courageous to a fault, cannon for an arm, but poor breaks and indirect lines to the ball regardless of position.  Hustles like crazy but speed isn't great.
I am 100% on board with wanting Bryce Harper to play in LF with a glove first player in CF. Put Harper in LF, let him be a gold glover in the corner, and still let him know his focus is with the bat.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #477: December 04, 2013, 04:34:28 PM »
 
I don't really buy that given relatively small sample sizes, plus he's on a learning curve which makes for erratic  :nervous: play.  Courageous to a fault, cannon for an arm, but poor breaks and indirect lines to the ball regardless of position.  Hustles like crazy but speed isn't great.

Harper's arm plays better in left. He'll have more chances to show it off than he would in center. There is a reason why left fielders have more assists then center fielders.

Offline imref

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #478: December 04, 2013, 04:37:44 PM »
Fister was on WJFK a couple of hours ago.  He said his relatives were in law enforcement, I believe his dad is a retired cop or firefighter, and that was always his fallback if he didn't make it in baseball.  Talked about how being 6'8" meant he had to focus on mechanics.  His goal is to make bat contact in his first 3 pitches.  A perfect game for him is 27 ground ball outs.   He focuses on pitching to contact, preserving pitches, and going deep into games.  His girlfriend coaches water polo.  That's all I caught.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #479: December 04, 2013, 05:04:39 PM »

 There is a reason why left fielders have more assists then center fielders.
Yes I think it's because more runners run on their weak arms.   Sorriano had lots of assists in left.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #480: December 04, 2013, 05:18:10 PM »
Yes I think it's because more runners run on their weak arms.   Sorriano had lots of assists in left.

The throw from center to second is much shorter so fewer runners test their arms. Soriano has a decent arm it was all the other nonsense that encouraged runners

Offline PC

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #481: December 04, 2013, 05:41:31 PM »
F.P. Santangelo ‏@FightinHydrant 2 Dec

Excited about what looks like one of the better rotations in baseball w the addition of Fister but Im gonna miss @S_Lombo1

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #482: December 04, 2013, 10:44:56 PM »
in that case, then will we see Desmond and Zimmermann extended after Cano signs elsewhere? (if you think Cano is the difference between a 10% chance and a 11-12% chance, then how do you figure that Desmond and Zimmermann leaving together take the team down from 11% or 12% to 0%?)

If we miss the playoffs because Zimmerman plus Desmond is about 4 more wins than Cano in 2016...that's the scenario where having Cano instead of other players would cost you in the aggregate. If you can guarantee either a WS or that signing him won't affect our ability to resign our other great players...I'm in. I would give up winning seasons for a WS, not not for simply a slightly increased chance that's still under 25% for the next two seasons.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #483: December 04, 2013, 10:53:10 PM »
If we miss the playoffs because Zimmerman plus Desmond is about 4 more wins than Cano in 2016...that's the scenario where having Cano instead of other players would cost you in the aggregate. If you can guarantee either a WS or that signing him won't affect our ability to resign our other great players...I'm in. I would give up winning seasons for a WS, not not for simply a slightly increased chance that's still under 25% for the next two seasons.

can you guarantee not signing him means Zimmermann and Desmond stay? otherwise it's a false dilemma
I'm still curious how cano bumps the odds by 10-20%, but the absence of Desmond and zimmermann take the odds to 0

Offline Dave301

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #484: December 04, 2013, 11:01:07 PM »
Any player that leaves the Nats for a bigger paycheck will simply be replaced. Happens with every team in MLB. Players are going to move around regardless.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #485: December 04, 2013, 11:03:47 PM »
Any player that leaves the Nats for a bigger paycheck will simply be replaced. Happens with every team in MLB. Players are going to move around regardless.

Hey, why bother figuring out which players are good and how much to pay them? Just pay some guys until you have no more money and replace the rest! Optimal.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #486: December 04, 2013, 11:12:14 PM »
can you guarantee not signing him means Zimmermann and Desmond stay? otherwise it's a false dilemma
I'm still curious how cano bumps the odds by 10-20%, but the absence of Desmond and zimmermann take the odds to 0

It doesn't, necessarily. If Giolito and Cole turn out great then maybe Zimmermann and Fister are expendable in two years. All I'm saying is that every team besides two runs out of money. Detroit could afford Prince Fielder....and then had to trade him to presumably pay one of their young core. The Angels had more money than everyone...until they wasted so much on the wrong players. I'm in no hurry to spend the difference between our current payroll and the Lerners max payroll, not with so many guys on the team I'd like to see extended and not to incrementally improve our offense when we could sign a similar offensive player at a less premium position for 20-40% of the cost

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #487: December 04, 2013, 11:13:36 PM »
Also, it guarantees they stay if you split the $200 million and give them each half. I know that.

Offline Dave301

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #488: December 04, 2013, 11:19:37 PM »
Hey, why bother figuring out which players are good and how much to pay them? Just pay some guys until you have no more money and replace the rest! Optimal.
As if you have the slightest clue on how much money the Lerners and the Nats have and what their budget is. Nobody is suggesting that we give Cano all the money he wants, but you have to give your team the best chance to win for as many seasons as possible. I see this with signing Cano. If down the road we lose anybody that leaves for more money, he can be replaced.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #489: December 05, 2013, 08:43:04 AM »
This article goes into the budget.   Rizzo says Lerners will give him the money "if it makes sense." 

 the http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-winter-meetings-begin-nationals-general-manager-mike-rizzo-open-to-upgrading-roster/2013/11/12/f2d901e2-4bdd-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html

Nice and ambiguous.  Kilgore speculates that the team was at about $125MM between scheduled increases, likely arbitration, and filling out the roster with minimum wage guys to replace Tracy and Haren.  MLBTR projects Fister to get $6.9MM this year, so that bumps the projected payroll to over $130MM right now, with no other moves. 

We know the luxury tax threshold is $189MM.  You can assume they have a chunk of that budgeted for signing Harper or his replacement, probably Desmond and Ramos, and some of their pitchers.  Figure they try to get by on the cheap with Span and then Goodwin or some other system product, and maybe view Skole as the 1st baseman of the future.  Those would be the spots they might have future cost savings planned.   I don't see this market supporting a $200MM team, but I could see the Lerners maybe going a little higher than Detroit given our market is better and deep pockets for an aging owner.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #490: December 05, 2013, 08:52:02 AM »
To beat a dead horse,  it comes down to MASN- were not a large market if the settlement ends up anywhere near Angelos' numbers and after the Houston debacle,  who knows whether 'fair market' is anywhere near what it was a year or two ago. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #491: December 05, 2013, 02:22:31 PM »
This article goes into the budget.   Rizzo says Lerners will give him the money "if it makes sense." 

 the http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-winter-meetings-begin-nationals-general-manager-mike-rizzo-open-to-upgrading-roster/2013/11/12/f2d901e2-4bdd-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html

Nice and ambiguous.  Kilgore speculates that the team was at about $125MM between scheduled increases, likely arbitration, and filling out the roster with minimum wage guys to replace Tracy and Haren.  MLBTR projects Fister to get $6.9MM this year, so that bumps the projected payroll to over $130MM right now, with no other moves. 

We know the luxury tax threshold is $189MM.  You can assume they have a chunk of that budgeted for signing Harper or his replacement, probably Desmond and Ramos, and some of their pitchers.  Figure they try to get by on the cheap with Span and then Goodwin or some other system product, and maybe view Skole as the 1st baseman of the future.  Those would be the spots they might have future cost savings planned.   I don't see this market supporting a $200MM team, but I could see the Lerners maybe going a little higher than Detroit given our market is better and deep pockets for an aging owner.

Without getting into the spitting contest of whether I have the "slightest clue" regarding future payroll, I think it's safe to assume that we have a Detroit/Angels type upper limit - maybe $150 million or so. Right now we're around $130 million. Once LaRoche and Soriano come off the books we'll have $40 million or so annually to devote to long-term salary increases for Zimmermann, Strasburg and Desmond, as well as the "becoming more expensive all the time" nature of the other young guys on the roster. I don't include Harper because I assume we can basically pay for him out of the money we save when Werth comes off the books.

Within spitting distance, that's a pretty accurate representation of what we're facing, I think. So if you want Cano, you have to assume we have more like a $175 million budget in the future, or that we're going to make some tough choices.

I'm okay with arguing over whether or not Cano might give us a better chance at a World Series even if we drop a couple other guys - I disagree but that's a valid argument. It's ridiculous to not think these things (signing Cano v. signing other players on the roster currently) affect one another. Guys don't leave contending ballclubs for market value. If you split the $200 million for Cano evenly between Zimmermann and Desmond at 6/$100 million apiece, it's overwhelmingly likely they'll sign those deals.

So I don't understand the charge of a false choice.

Offline nats4ever

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #492: December 05, 2013, 02:30:03 PM »
To beat a dead horse,  it comes down to MASN- were not a large market if the settlement ends up anywhere near Angelos' numbers and after the Houston debacle,  who knows whether 'fair market' is anywhere near what it was a year or two ago. 

Quit whining. The lerners are going to do what their going to do. U look stupid from the move that rizzo made. U wanted him gone in the first place.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #493: December 05, 2013, 02:31:32 PM »
So I don't understand the charge of a false choice.

you're assuming extensions. If they don't occur, it turns out it was a false choice. We'll know soon (likely before LaRoche and Soriano come off the books) because Desmond and Zimmermann have two years left- realistically, if they are going to get extended, this is the offseason where it will happen

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #494: December 05, 2013, 02:32:49 PM »
As far as "having the slightest clue" it's not exactly like I'm making a controversial argument. I'm giving the Nats credit for having a future payroll in the 3-7 range of the entire league. I'm not making outrageously cheap assumptions.

Maybe I'm being conservation, but we have zero evidence that they're willing to compete on the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox level.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #495: December 05, 2013, 02:39:14 PM »
you're assuming extensions. If they don't occur, it turns out it was a false choice. We'll know soon (likely before LaRoche and Soriano come off the books) because Desmond and Zimmermann have two years left- realistically, if they are going to get extended, this is the offseason where it will happen

It doesn't matter if they sign extensions, or we sign them to free agent deals, or if Rizzo thinks that players can be found elsewhere that make the team better. Money spent on Cano, assuming an upper limit of $150 million in payroll, is money NOT spent on the current players in future years.

You simply can't have a ton of FA age talent on the roster, have a medium-large MLB payroll, and afford both your young prime talent coming into free agency and the $200 million players. That's why the Cardinals rejected Pujols and why the Tigers traded Fielder this offseason.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #496: December 05, 2013, 02:41:49 PM »
It doesn't matter if they sign extensions, or we sign them to free agent deals, or if Rizzo thinks that players can be found elsewhere that make the team better. Money spent on Cano, assuming an upper limit of $150 million in payroll, is money NOT spent on the current players in future years.

You simply can't have a ton of FA age talent on the roster, have a medium-large MLB payroll, and afford both your young prime talent coming into free agency and the $200 million players. That's why the Cardinals rejected Pujols and why the Tigers traded Fielder this offseason.

I totally agree. At this point, I would like to see them either get the extensions done or sign Cano. My fear is that neither happen. Right now, the window is two years, I'd like to see them either elongate the window through extensions or make an all out push to win in those two years- I'm partial to extending desmond, but either would be fine.

Offline madj55

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #497: December 06, 2013, 10:24:21 AM »
Think we could've pulled off Rendon, Lombo, Ray, Krol, and maybe Cole for Fielder and Fister?

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #498: December 06, 2013, 10:34:22 AM »
Think we could've pulled off Rendon, Lombo, Ray, Krol, and maybe Cole for Fielder and Fister?

Why would you trade cost controlled assets and take on Fielder's contract, when we could have just taken on his contract for nothing a couple years ago?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #499: December 06, 2013, 11:20:41 AM »
Why would you trade cost controlled assets and take on Fielder's contract, when we could have just taken on his contract for nothing a couple years ago?

Since they paid $30 million of the contract, it's not quite the same thing. Instead of a 9/$214 million contract, you're essentially giving him a 7/$138 million contract. I'm not saying that's worth it, but it's not the same deal.

I don't mind that at all for Fielder.  Since scouting reports don't accuse him of losing his bat speed, I just chalk his year up to the fact that he was going to unnamed personal problems in Detroit and that he's streakier than you think. This is now the third such "drop-off year" that he's had in 7 years. The other 4 years he averaged 5.1 WAR. If you just start him at 4.5 WAR and assume the regular .5 win decrease per season, that's something like 21 wins over the next 7 years, which in this market is about $130 million.

Considering the potential for a 4-win upgrade at 1B - especially with the fact that it's the kind of big bopper, hitting, OBP-heavy upgrade we need most - I wouldn't shy away from that deal.