Author Topic: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers  (Read 19034 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #450: December 04, 2013, 11:22:17 AM »
Right, but I think people are assuming that either (a) Ryan Zimmerman is a better hitter than he really is, or (b) he really IS a better hitter but nagging 3B injuries or whatever are preventing him from doing that at 3B and he'll be a lot better hitter at 1B.

That's a huge assumption, especially if you're talking about an 8 year/$200 million bet to move him permanently off 3B to allow Rendon to shift there, and a smaller but still huge assumption if you're talking about trading away Anthony Rendon, who is ostensibly a hitting machine who just proved he could play 2B last year pretty effectively.

his bat last year would have been good enough for first. Right now, this team has a great shot over the next two years, but desmond, zimmermann, and now fister are gone after that. If they have to take on an albatross to shore up a gaping hole (laroche) and boost their chances the next two years (longer than that depending on when you expect Cano to start a serious decline), then they should take on the albatross

Offline Ray D

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #451: December 04, 2013, 11:22:27 AM »
Right, but I think people are assuming that either (a) Ryan Zimmerman is a better hitter than he really is, or (b) he really IS a better hitter but nagging 3B injuries or whatever are preventing him from doing that at 3B and he'll be a lot better hitter at 1B.


No. I think alot of people think that his offensive production is good enough for first base.   (I don't.)

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #452: December 04, 2013, 11:24:01 AM »
No. I think alot of people think that his offensive production is good enough for first base.   (I don't.)

his numbers would but him around 6 or 7 last year, to improve on his bat at first, that's a very limited list to target

Offline Slateman

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #453: December 04, 2013, 11:30:20 AM »
I mean, so would I for a year or two. But by 2017 we could have 3 LFs playing in our OF - Choo is going to get 5 years from somebody, Harper is going to weight 250 lbs in a few years, and Jayson Werth is going to be 84 years old. I don't think our World Series chances dramatically improve with Choo over Span in the OF. At a certain point, you have to realize that spending $85 million and ruining your future OF defense just to move from a 10% chance to win the World Series to a 10.2% chance is really an overreaction to a disappointing season.
Harper was better in CF than he was in LF. In 2017, he will be 25. I don't think he'll be run down and I don't think he's going to get up to 250lbs, as he likes to run the bases too much.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #454: December 04, 2013, 11:30:50 AM »
6 or 7...out of 8 qualified NL 1B, by wOBA.


Offline Smithian

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #456: December 04, 2013, 11:34:51 AM »

Offline Smithian

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #457: December 04, 2013, 11:35:57 AM »
FISTER!!


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #458: December 04, 2013, 11:47:25 AM »
6 or 7...out of 8 qualified NL 1B, by wOBA.

Number 7 in Off among qualified MLB 1B- that seems to be the most all encompassing offensive stat

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #459: December 04, 2013, 01:16:45 PM »
Well that gives him a lot of credit for racking up a bunch of at bats, since it's weighted for plate appearances.

By wRC+ which is simply how productive he is per at bat, he'd have ranked t-11th out of 25 last year, 11th of 26 in 2012 (4 spots BEHIND LaRoche), and 15th of 24 in 2011.

I'm not saying Zimmerman would be a BAD hitter at 1B. He'd be average there, maybe above average with (I assume) good defense. But he's not a star there, and we wouldn't have signed him to a contract through the next century if we planned on him being an above average 1B rather than a very good to great 3B.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #460: December 04, 2013, 01:29:01 PM »
yes, Adam LaRoche hitting 33 home runs while batting .272/.343/.510 was very good- do you except a repeat performance? Morse was also very good when he hit 31 home runs with a .303/.360/.550   line, but I'm not about to use that as a benchmark. Stats that give credit for racking up numbers give credit for health which is a pretty important, and which Zimmerman managed to have last year. Per at bat, I could care less about since being available is part of what makes a player available.

Offline RL04

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #461: December 04, 2013, 01:35:40 PM »
Granted, fielding at first base is less important than any other position.


Just to point out - only because less balls are pulled to 1B than to 3B.

The ball has no idea where it is rolling.  As I've pointed out several times before, fielding a grounder at 1B is just as difficult as fielding one at 3B.

Offline RL04

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #462: December 04, 2013, 01:38:16 PM »
And, not to rain on this parade but did Fister have a physical before the trade was approved?

Isn't there a chance we are receiving damaged goods and got taken by the Tigers?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #463: December 04, 2013, 01:44:39 PM »
They'll do a physical before the trade is official, if it's not already.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #464: December 04, 2013, 01:48:52 PM »

Just to point out - only because less balls are pulled to 1B than to 3B.
.


Not entirely. First base is more forgiving. You can mishandle a ball and you have a better chance of getting an out than if a ball is mishandled at third. Also, throwing is not nearly as important a skill at first.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #465: December 04, 2013, 01:49:47 PM »
do you give any weight to moving rendon where he's less likely to get hurt and zimmerman to where his arm is less exposed? Extra PAs for both should come out of a move.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #466: December 04, 2013, 01:57:13 PM »
do you give any weight to moving rendon where he's less likely to get hurt and zimmerman to where his arm is less exposed? Extra PAs for both should come out of a move.
Zimmerman is an elite third baseman (when his shoulder is 100%).   You lose alot moving Rendon there.  LaRoche is an elite firstbaseman, You lose alot moving Zimmerman there.  With our pitchers throwing alot of ground balls, infield is a premium concern.  Keep Rendon at second and keep our fingers crossed he doesn't get hurt.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #467: December 04, 2013, 02:08:44 PM »
yes, Adam LaRoche hitting 33 home runs while batting .272/.343/.510 was very good- do you except a repeat performance? Morse was also very good when he hit 31 home runs with a .303/.360/.550   line, but I'm not about to use that as a benchmark. Stats that give credit for racking up numbers give credit for health which is a pretty important, and which Zimmerman managed to have last year. Per at bat, I could care less about since being available is part of what makes a player available.

Look, if you want Rizzo to go get Mike Napoli on a 3-year deal, I'm with you. If your solution to the first base problem is to sign Cano to a 8/$200 million contract and shift two players to less valuable defensive positions when they're still able to play the tougher positions, I just don't see the value of that long-term.

Offline amanuel

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #468: December 04, 2013, 02:17:48 PM »
Totally forgot about this



Just replace Lebron with Fister, Rizzo with Riley (My reaction)

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #469: December 04, 2013, 02:28:08 PM »
do you give any weight to moving rendon where he's less likely to get hurt and zimmerman to where his arm is less exposed? Extra PAs for both should come out of a move.

I'm hoping that Zimmerman's arm is back to normal. Rendon's injuries never occurred in the field, right? I don't know - if he's going to be injured or healthy, I'm not sure it matters where he is. If he's Mr. Glass, trouble will find him.

As I said, I think there are ways to help the offense that don't involve Robinson Cano. Cano is roughly a 140-145 wRC+ hitter. Adam LaRoche was a 127 hitter in 2012, but a 104 hitter last year.

So instead of paying Cano 8/$200 million, maybe you pay....

Corey Hart 2/$24 million: last three years by wRC+: 124, 137, 130
Mike Napoli 3/$39 million: last three years by wRC+: 129, 115, 179
Shin-Soo Choo (Werth to 1B) 5/$85 million: last three years by wRC+: 151, 131, 106

None of those guys gets you to Cano, but all of them likely reproduce what LaRoche gave this offense in 2012, and I think that's enough.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #470: December 04, 2013, 02:31:12 PM »
Look, if you want Rizzo to go get Mike Napoli on a 3-year deal, I'm with you. If your solution to the first base problem is to sign Cano to a 8/$200 million contract and shift two players to less valuable defensive positions when they're still able to play the tougher positions, I just don't see the value of that long-term.

So it's a combination thing.  Zimmerman at a wRC+ at around 120, Rendon likely to be right about 100 to 105 (hopefully) and LaRoche likely to be more like about a 110 next season.  So please tell me how Cano at 140, Zimmerman still at 120 and Rendon at 100 is worse than having LaRoche in there?  Don't give me defense as a reason either.  Rendon is a natural 3B and he might not be Ryan Zimmerman in his prime, but Zimmerman isn't in his prime.  Defense at 2B gets better, 3B and 1B probably stay the same.  Zimmerman at 1B defensively is a wash against LaRoche given that Zimmerman still has great range, he just can't throw it like he used to.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #471: December 04, 2013, 02:41:13 PM »
So it's a combination thing.  Zimmerman at a wRC+ at around 120, Rendon likely to be right about 100 to 105 (hopefully) and LaRoche likely to be more like about a 110 next season.  So please tell me how Cano at 140, Zimmerman still at 120 and Rendon at 100 is worse than having LaRoche in there?  Don't give me defense as a reason either.  Rendon is a natural 3B and he might not be Ryan Zimmerman in his prime, but Zimmerman isn't in his prime.  Defense at 2B gets better, 3B and 1B probably stay the same.  Zimmerman at 1B defensively is a wash against LaRoche given that Zimmerman still has great range, he just can't throw it like he used to.

I can't tell you that. I CAN tell you you're completely ignoring money. If Cano would sign a 2/$80 million contract here, I would be all for it.

If you can tell me that the Lerners have an unlimited budget and would sign Desmond, Zimmermann, Harper, and Strasburg to extensions IN ADDITION TO Robinson Cano, I would be all for it.

I don't believe that to be the case. I believe Robinson Cano would mean us losing probably 2 of those guys, and I don't want that to happen. Having a 4.5 WAR Cano in 2016 makes us a worse team if we have to replace Zimmermann and Desmond with "whoever's available".

I also don't believe that we need that huge an offensive upgrade if Rendon and Harper take steps forward and we can cobble together a bench that doesn't seem to collectively bat .143 for a third of the season. I think it's overkill, and could have some serious ramifications for signing our own guys.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #472: December 04, 2013, 02:43:23 PM »
I can't tell you that. I CAN tell you you're completely ignoring money. If Cano would sign a 2/$80 million contract here, I would be all for it.

If you can tell me that the Lerners have an unlimited budget and would sign Desmond, Zimmermann, Harper, and Strasburg to extensions IN ADDITION TO Robinson Cano, I would be all for it.

I don't believe that to be the case. I believe Robinson Cano would mean us losing probably 2 of those guys, and I don't want that to happen. Having a 4.5 WAR Cano in 2016 makes us a worse team if we have to replace Zimmermann and Desmond with "whoever's available".

I also don't believe that we need that huge an offensive upgrade if Rendon and Harper take steps forward and we can cobble together a bench that doesn't seem to collectively bat .143 for a third of the season. I think it's overkill, and could have some serious ramifications for signing our own guys.

the flip side to the money argument is 1) will those players be worth the money they will command and 2) if not, then why not try to win now?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #473: December 04, 2013, 03:05:46 PM »
I think most people would disagree with whether they're trying to "win now" if your position is that they're not. I believe they're trying to win the World Series not only now, but attempting to keep that window open for as long as possible.

There's an upper limit to your odds of winning a World Series. The Nationals right now might be rated as having a 10% chance, let's say. Robinson Cano might increase those odds to 11-12%. No more that that. It wouldn't change the fact that we (a) have no more than a 60% chance to beat the 96-win Braves, (b) have no more than a 60% chance to win a one game play off if we lose the division to the Braves, (c) have no more than a 55-60% chance to win any of 3 series you need to win to win the World Series.

If having Robinson Cano for the next two seasons, and dropping Desmond and Zimmermann as a result, takes us out of the playoffs in either 2016, 2017, or 2018 in a year we would have made it WITH those guys, then we better fricking win a World Series one of the next two years because our OVERALL chances of winning a World Series in the next 5 years would be lower than if we had never signed him.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #474: December 04, 2013, 03:07:58 PM »
I think most people would disagree with whether they're trying to "win now" if your position is that they're not. I believe they're trying to win the World Series not only now, but attempting to keep that window open for as long as possible.

There's an upper limit to your odds of winning a World Series. The Nationals right now might be rated as having a 10% chance, let's say. Robinson Cano might increase those odds to 11-12%. No more that that. It wouldn't change the fact that we (a) have no more than a 60% chance to beat the 96-win Braves, (b) have no more than a 60% chance to win a one game play off if we lose the division to the Braves, (c) have no more than a 55-60% chance to win any of 3 series you need to win to win the World Series.

If having Robinson Cano for the next two seasons, and dropping Desmond and Zimmermann as a result, takes us out of the playoffs in either 2016, 2017, or 2018 in a year we would have made it WITH those guys, then we better fricking win a World Series one of the next two years because our OVERALL chances of winning a World Series in the next 5 years would be lower than if we had never signed him.

in that case, then will we see Desmond and Zimmermann extended after Cano signs elsewhere? (if you think Cano is the difference between a 10% chance and a 11-12% chance, then how do you figure that Desmond and Zimmermann leaving together take the team down from 11% or 12% to 0%?)