Author Topic: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers  (Read 19051 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #425: December 04, 2013, 09:35:00 AM »
Funny thing - last night, I met a friend in from Michigan who is friendly with the (Don) Kellys.  He's the guy Lombo I think will be competing with.

Offline PC

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #426: December 04, 2013, 09:37:55 AM »
Quote
Doug Fister, Cy Young candidate?
December, 3, 2013
Dec 39:36PM ETBy Mark Simon | ESPN.com

The last 10 baseball seasons, I've run a prediction contest for my colleagues and friends. As a way to encourage creative picks for the end-of-season awards, I offer a bonus if someone is the only person to pick a player for that award, and that player finishes in the top three. It was dubbed the Ubaldo Rule after the 2010 season, before which one entrant (me!) picked Ubaldo Jimenez as his choice.

Last year, our Heisman-predicting colleague Ryan McCrystal made Doug Fister his selection. It was one that went unrewarded, as Fister had a decent season but received no award consideration.

I think Ryan may have been a year ahead of his time. We have five months to consider our preseason prognostications and while the chalk would be to take Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young, and the trendy choices would figure to be Jose Fernandez and Michael Wacha, Fister makes for a good sleeper pick.

Why?

The NL move
The AL-to-NL switcheroo is frequently one that is beneficial for a pitcher (see A.J. Burnett, Gio Gonzalez and Francisco Liriano among recent examples). There's no reason to think that Fister won't benefit too.

As Justin Havens noted in the Stats & Information blog, Fister has good numbers in a limited sampling against NL opponents -- a 2.09 ERA in 12 regular-season games (11 starts), with a strikeout-to-walk rate of better than 6-to-1 and an astounding one homer allowed in 73 1/3 innings.

Fister should face what is still a strikeout-happy Braves team without Brian McCann, an aging Phillies team, a work-in-progress (but not likely to be great) Mets lineup and a young Marlins team with only one significant offensive threat in Giancarlo Stanton at least a dozen times in 2014. He beat (and pitched well against) the Braves, Phillies and Mets in 2013.

The Nationals' primary interleague opponent is the AL West, meaning Fister will likely only see an AL East team once -- when the Nationals face the Orioles in the four-game Beltway Series.

The big curveball
Fister throws a nasty curveball, one that netted misses on 42 percent of swings last season, and netted misses on 41 percent of swings the year before. His miss rate over the last two seasons ranked eighth-best among the 100 pitchers who have thrown the curveball the most.

Remember, too, that that curveball will be new to many of the hitters he'll face in 2014.

Improved defense
Fister allowed groundball hits at a rate that ranked among the highest of anyone last season. That deviated significantly from his career norms. He also goes from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera manning the corners for him to Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman.

Over the last two seasons, the latter two were 46 Defensive Runs Saved better than the former two. The Nationals also rate better at second and short over the last two seasons, though the difference isn't that dramatic.

Regardless, Fister's history and a better defense to work with could mean a big boost to his numbers.

A dominant team
We mentioned already that, at least at the moment, the NL East is weak.

The upgrade from Dan Haren to Fister gives Washington four starting pitchers, none older than 30, who could be No. 1s on a lot of teams. Bryce Harper will be fully healthy and primed for a big year as a 21-year-old. Ian Desmond is in his offensive prime.

And there’s always the possibility of Robinson Cano joining the mix.

Perhaps we were all a year off with our assessments that the Nationals would win 105 games and romp in the NL East in 2013. Perhaps that year will be 2014, with Fister among those leading the way.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42730/doug-fister-cy-young-candidate

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #427: December 04, 2013, 09:42:28 AM »
I want baseball right nowwwww

Offline mitlen

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #428: December 04, 2013, 10:11:55 AM »
I'm goin' golfing but "yunz" with access can check out Fister on 106.7 at 1:30 PM.    Though I doubt it, I hope Charlie and/or Dave do the interview.     However, Holden and Danny are pretty good baseball guys   ....   when management lets 'em be.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #429: December 04, 2013, 10:15:40 AM »
I'd rather have Bryce Harper out there and have Choo in LF

I mean, so would I for a year or two. But by 2017 we could have 3 LFs playing in our OF - Choo is going to get 5 years from somebody, Harper is going to weight 250 lbs in a few years, and Jayson Werth is going to be 84 years old. I don't think our World Series chances dramatically improve with Choo over Span in the OF. At a certain point, you have to realize that spending $85 million and ruining your future OF defense just to move from a 10% chance to win the World Series to a 10.2% chance is really an overreaction to a disappointing season.

Offline sph274

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #430: December 04, 2013, 10:20:07 AM »
I mean, so would I for a year or two. But by 2017 we could have 3 LFs playing in our OF - Choo is going to get 5 years from somebody, Harper is going to weight 250 lbs in a few years, and Jayson Werth is going to be 84 years old. I don't think our World Series chances dramatically improve with Choo over Span in the OF. At a certain point, you have to realize that spending $85 million and ruining your future OF defense just to move from a 10% chance to win the World Series to a 10.2% chance is really an overreaction to a disappointing season.

 :clap:

signing Cano to an absurd contract(if you think we can sign him for less than 180-200 mil guaranteed you are not being realistic, especially if the Seattle offer is true) would also be an overreaction to a disappointing season

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #431: December 04, 2013, 10:20:21 AM »
Rizzo was on Hot Stove this morning.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #432: December 04, 2013, 10:20:37 AM »
However, considering the surprisingly low pricetag, I kind of wish we had gotten 3 years of Dexter Fowler. I would give Span up for that. They didn't get much more than a Solis-type for him.

Offline sph274

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #433: December 04, 2013, 10:23:13 AM »
However, considering the surprisingly low pricetag, I kind of wish we had gotten 3 years of Dexter Fowler. I would give Span up for that. They didn't get much more than a Solis-type for him.

dexter fowler is a crappy denard span. the dude has an OPS of .694 away from Coors and isnt a good fielder.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #434: December 04, 2013, 10:25:17 AM »
However, considering the surprisingly low pricetag, I kind of wish we had gotten 3 years of Dexter Fowler. I would give Span up for that. They didn't get much more than a Solis-type for him.

Fowler is considered a poor defender whose offense is largely a result of Coors Field. Which might explain the low price tag.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #435: December 04, 2013, 10:27:48 AM »
:clap:

signing Cano to an absurd contract(if you think we can sign him for less than 180-200 mil guaranteed you are not being realistic, especially if the Seattle offer is true) would also be an overreaction to a disappointing season

I completely agree with this. Considering Rendon's decent defense and baserunning, unless people were completely wrong about his bat he should put up a 3 win season next year. We have him for 6 seasons. Even iif that's all he becomes, that's 18 wins over 6 seasons for probably $20 million. If you take a 6-win projection for Cano, followed by a standard -0.5 win aging curve, that's 28.5 wins over 6 years, for $150 million.

That means you're paying $130 million for 10.5 extra wins. That's...not good business. Lock up our guys.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #436: December 04, 2013, 10:40:18 AM »
Fowler is considered a poor defender whose offense is largely a result of Coors Field. Which might explain the low price tag.

Over the past three years Fowler's batted .256/.350/.380 away from Coors.

Over the past three years Denard Span has batted .245/.298/.341 away from his home parks.

Fowler is two years younger, and comes wiith two more years of team control. He's been worth about 2.5 more wins than Span, offensively, over the previous 3 years. He was available for a prospect, and we could have almost certainly gotten a better prospect back for Span.

Sometimes I think all Nats fans want to do is complain.

"We need to upgrade the offense"

"Wait, that makes the defense WORSE"

"I want to replace Denard Span, but only with Willie Mays"

God.

Offline CurlyW4lyfe

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #437: December 04, 2013, 10:40:19 AM »
All I know is that down here in Atlanta, the Native's Chins are trembling with fear in their waffle house gravy.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #438: December 04, 2013, 10:41:14 AM »
Wait - for the sake of argument, wins are going for $6MM+ for FA signings this year, so 28+ wins is about $170MM.  The other thing would be the upgrade isn't over Rendon.  It is over ALR for a year and then the next corner infielder / 2d baseman you bring in to replace ALR. 

I agree it isn't the most efficient way to spend your money, and, if SPH is right and 7 or 8 years and $175 - 200MM is still out there as a starting point, the albatross potential is huge and I would not jump to do it.  I also think that money might be better spent on early signings of some of the guys who will be FAs after 2015.  That said, I don't think calling Cano a 6 win player is that unrealistic, and he probably would mean something like a 3 or 4 win pick up in 2014.

Offline sph274

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #439: December 04, 2013, 10:51:59 AM »
Over the past three years Fowler's batted .256/.350/.380 away from Coors.

Over the past three years Denard Span has batted .245/.298/.341 away from his home parks.

Fowler is two years younger, and comes wiith two more years of team control. He's been worth about 2.5 more wins than Span, offensively, over the previous 3 years. He was available for a prospect, and we could have almost certainly gotten a better prospect back for Span.

Sometimes I think all Nats fans want to do is complain.

"We need to upgrade the offense"

"Wait, that makes the defense WORSE"

"I want to replace Denard Span, but only with Willie Mays"

God.

the whole point is that dexter fowler is in no way an improvement over Denard Span. All of Fowler's value is in his offense that is tied to absurd Coors Field numbers. so the guy you trade for who is a 2 WAR player with defense, is suddenly worth much less than that since his OPS drops by like 200 points now that he isnt playing in Coors. He is also a little more expensive than Denard Span and the Astros only have one additional year of control. He is not any kind of upgrade over Span since he can barely play CF. Span is a better base stealer. Over the past three years Denard Span has been owrth more WAR than Fowler. Fowler is not an upgrade. The people that were screaming for an upgrade were screaming for a Jacoby Ellsbury not a Willie Mays. Seeing the price of Ellsbury, Span and Goodwin will do just fine.

edit: fowler will almost certainly hit the 9 million figure Span's option is worth in arbitration. idk fowler just isnt very good.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #440: December 04, 2013, 10:54:41 AM »
Over the past three years Fowler's batted .256/.350/.380 away from Coors.

Over the past three years Denard Span has batted .245/.298/.341 away from his home parks.

Fowler is two years younger, and comes wiith two more years of team control. He's been worth about 2.5 more wins than Span, offensively, over the previous 3 years. He was available for a prospect, and we could have almost certainly gotten a better prospect back for Span.

Sometimes I think all Nats fans want to do is complain.

"We need to upgrade the offense"

"Wait, that makes the defense WORSE"

"I want to replace Denard Span, but only with Willie Mays"

God.

I don't want to replace Span so I don't know where that's coming from. And putting a crappy centerfielder with limited offensive value isn't a smart move.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #441: December 04, 2013, 10:55:04 AM »
Wait - for the sake of argument, wins are going for $6MM+ for FA signings this year, so 28+ wins is about $170MM.  The other thing would be the upgrade isn't over Rendon.  It is over ALR for a year and then the next corner infielder / 2d baseman you bring in to replace ALR. 

I agree it isn't the most efficient way to spend your money, and, if SPH is right and 7 or 8 years and $175 - 200MM is still out there as a starting point, the albatross potential is huge and I would not jump to do it.  I also think that money might be better spent on early signings of some of the guys who will be FAs after 2015.  That said, I don't think calling Cano a 6 win player is that unrealistic, and he probably would mean something like a 3 or 4 win pick up in 2014.


I think one thing people are ignoring in all this is that there's some serious albatross potential in moving Ryan Zimmerman to 1B. He's not like an AMAZING hitter. He loses 1.5 wins in positional adjustment moving there. He would have ranked 6/8 in wOBA out of qualified NL 1B last year. I've seen no evidence to suggest that moving to 1B magically makes you a better hitter. I guess it's possible, but it's still supposition.

It would probably be best for the team to keep him at 3B if he really has his throwing thing solved.

And if we're just playing fantasy baseball and moving guys like they're puzzle pieces, I'd rather sign Choo to less years/less money, put him in RF and move WERTH to 1B. Adding Choo and subtracting LaRoche would be just as big an offensive upgrade as Cano over LaRoche, and cost $100 million less.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #442: December 04, 2013, 10:58:58 AM »
I think one thing people are ignoring in all this is that there's some serious albatross potential in moving Ryan Zimmerman to 1B. He's not like an AMAZING hitter. He loses 1.5 wins in positional adjustment moving there. He would have ranked 6/8 in wOBA out of qualified NL 1B last year. I've seen no evidence to suggest that moving to 1B magically makes you a better hitter. I guess it's possible, but it's still supposition.

It would probably be best for the team to keep him at 3B if he really has his throwing thing solved.

And if we're just playing fantasy baseball and moving guys like they're puzzle pieces, I'd rather sign Choo to less years/less money, put him in RF and move WERTH to 1B. Adding Choo and subtracting LaRoche would be just as big an offensive upgrade as Cano over LaRoche, and cost $100 million less.

anytime you sign a player to a long term deal, there is serious albatross potential. Offensively, zimmerman's season last year would but him around the number 6 or 7 first baseman in the mlb. Depending on how he plays and how you value defense, you could make an argument that he could jump to 5. The value is certainly less than at third, but it's not the night and day difference that many (including me) though it was

Offline sph274

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #443: December 04, 2013, 10:59:05 AM »
I think one thing people are ignoring in all this is that there's some serious albatross potential in moving Ryan Zimmerman to 1B. He's not like an AMAZING hitter. He loses 1.5 wins in positional adjustment moving there. He would have ranked 6/8 in wOBA out of qualified NL 1B last year. I've seen no evidence to suggest that moving to 1B magically makes you a better hitter. I guess it's possible, but it's still supposition.

It would probably be best for the team to keep him at 3B if he really has his throwing thing solved.

And if we're just playing fantasy baseball and moving guys like they're puzzle pieces, I'd rather sign Choo to less years/less money, put him in RF and move WERTH to 1B. Adding Choo and subtracting LaRoche would be just as big an offensive upgrade as Cano over LaRoche, and cost $100 million less.

Werth is much better defensively in RF than Choo. So we should sign Choo and move HIM to 1b lol. But I agree, we shouldnt move Zimmerman until it is absolutely necessary. Finding a 1B that can hit some HRs and be serviceable isnt as hard as it looks. ALR was that when we signed him originally, we just "fell in love with our veterans". Guys like this hsouldnt be all that hard to find. freak, Corey Hart would be a great platoon partner/full time replacement over LaRoche.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #444: December 04, 2013, 11:02:25 AM »
the whole point is that dexter fowler is in no way an improvement over Denard Span. All of Fowler's value is in his offense that is tied to absurd Coors Field numbers. so the guy you trade for who is a 2 WAR player with defense, is suddenly worth much less than that since his OPS drops by like 200 points now that he isnt playing in Coors. He is also a little more expensive than Denard Span and the Astros only have one additional year of control. He is not any kind of upgrade over Span since he can barely play CF. Span is a better base stealer. Over the past three years Denard Span has been owrth more WAR than Fowler. Fowler is not an upgrade. The people that were screaming for an upgrade were screaming for a Jacoby Ellsbury not a Willie Mays. Seeing the price of Ellsbury, Span and Goodwin will do just fine.

edit: fowler will almost certainly hit the 9 million figure Span's option is worth in arbitration. idk fowler just isnt very good.

I'm not saying that Fowler is an upgrade overall. He's certainly an OFFENSIVE upgrade, which is what people seem to be most worried about. I probably would have gotten him just to have on the team, because he is a HUGE upgrade over our bench and cost very little.

But yes, I would rather keep Span as well. But there are not that many spots on the team where it's realistic to try to upgrade this offense. CF is one, although you'd likely sacrifice defense to do so.

Also, not only has the notion that away stats are a good proxy for how someone will fare away from Coors been debunked, but it's ridiculous to ignore the 100 points of OPS advantage that Fowler has in away stats over Span. He's undoubtedly an offensive upgrade.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #445: December 04, 2013, 11:03:05 AM »
Choo really struggles against lefties.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #446: December 04, 2013, 11:05:35 AM »
I think one thing people are ignoring in all this is that there's some serious albatross potential in moving Ryan Zimmerman to 1B. He's not like an AMAZING hitter. He loses 1.5 wins in positional adjustment moving there. He would have ranked 6/8 in wOBA out of qualified NL 1B last year. I've seen no evidence to suggest that moving to 1B magically makes you a better hitter. I guess it's possible, but it's still supposition.

It would probably be best for the team to keep him at 3B if he really has his throwing thing solved.

I'll add to that, that the skill sets for third base and first base are almost totally different.

You wouldn't think of letting LaRoche play third base. But LaRoche is an elite first baseman.  There is no evidence that Zimmerman would be anything more than an average first baseman.  Granted, fielding at first base is less important than any other position, but it is a factor in this whole equation.




Offline cmdterps44

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #447: December 04, 2013, 11:07:49 AM »
I'll add to that, that the skill sets for third base and first base are almost totally different.

You wouldn't think of letting LaRoche play third base. But LaRoche is an elite first baseman.  There is no evidence that Zimmerman would be anything more than an average first baseman.  Granted, fielding at first base is less important than any other position, but it is a factor in this whole equation.

Which is why most 1b are power hitters who lack the ability to play other positions effectively.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #448: December 04, 2013, 11:10:05 AM »
Werth is much better defensively in RF than Choo.

Over the previous 4 seasons of RF and 4000 innings, Jayson Werth has averaged -3.9 runs in UZR/150.

Over the previous 4 seasons of RF and 4300 innings, Shin Soo Choo has averaged -3.6 runs in UZR/150.

Shin Soo Choo cannot play CF. He can play RF as well as Jayson Werth.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Nationals acquire Doug Fister from Tigers
« Reply #449: December 04, 2013, 11:13:43 AM »
Which is why most 1b are power hitters who lack the ability to play other positions effectively.

Right, but I think people are assuming that either (a) Ryan Zimmerman is a better hitter than he really is, or (b) he really IS a better hitter but nagging 3B injuries or whatever are preventing him from doing that at 3B and he'll be a lot better hitter at 1B.

That's a huge assumption, especially if you're talking about an 8 year/$200 million bet to move him permanently off 3B to allow Rendon to shift there, and a smaller but still huge assumption if you're talking about trading away Anthony Rendon, who is ostensibly a hitting machine who just proved he could play 2B last year pretty effectively.