Author Topic: Offseason moves? (Read 176266 times)

sph274 · « **Reply #1425 on:** November 22, 2013, 06:54:13 am »

Quote from: DPMOmaha on November 22, 2013, 12:41:44 am

I'm assuming the thinking is he'd go to RF with Beltran gone.

Oscar Tavares is in CF, and if he can't hack it defensively there, he is in RF. They arent gonna trade for span. especially since the difference between jay and span really isnt all that huge to begin with(not to mention jay is cheaper)

Ray D · « **Reply #1426 on:** November 22, 2013, 08:27:27 am »

Quote from: Sniper 1 on November 22, 2013, 05:44:43 am

Prince Fielder is a clone of his father,

Dad had a slightly bigger butt as I recall.

Mattionals · « **Reply #1427 on:** November 22, 2013, 08:55:47 am »

Quote from: blue911 on November 22, 2013, 02:02:46 am

Casey Stern makes no sense. If Span isn't good enough for the Nats, why would the Cards want him? Why wouldn't the Cards sign Ellsbury if he were the missing ingredient for a championship? Stern needs to get more fresh air

Casey's point is that the Cards need a good bottom of the order speed guy who can play CF. Matt Carpenter is their lead off guy. I think they see Taveras as more of a corner outfield guy and they see Jay as a 4th OF.

I'm not saying Casey's idea is a perfect trade, but Span fits their need to upgrade CF and RF while keeping Craig at 1B and having the ability to use Matt Adams in a trade to bring back a SS. I don't see a fit for the Cards on the FA market at SS. Their MO is to not hand out big contracts unless they get a guy who fills their needs for a long time. I don't see Drew or Peralta being those guys.

Ray D · « **Reply #1428 on:** November 22, 2013, 09:08:58 am »

I'm still missing the point about Jay. Why would the Cards give up on him? Sure, he dropped off some in 2013, but he put up good numbers his first three years. 2013 may just have been an off-year.

blue911 · « **Reply #1429 on:** November 22, 2013, 09:38:22 am »

Quote from: Mattionals on November 22, 2013, 08:55:47 am

Casey's point is that the Cards need a good bottom of the order speed guy who can play CF. Matt Carpenter is their lead off guy. I think they see Taveras as more of a corner outfield guy and they see Jay as a 4th OF.

I'm not saying Casey's idea is a perfect trade, but Span fits their need to upgrade CF and RF while keeping Craig at 1B and having the ability to use Matt Adams in a trade to bring back a SS. I don't see a fit for the Cards on the FA market at SS. Their MO is to not hand out big contracts unless they get a guy who fills their needs for a long time. I don't see Drew or Peralta being those guys.

So the Nats should take on a stupid contract because the Cards need better players? That's stupid no matter how you slice it. Span is perfect for the Nats, cost controlled and a bridge to either Goodwin,Burns or Taylor. Ellsbury is looking for a Carl Crawford contract,let some other fool deal with that burden.

When free agent contracts are being evaluated a teams need and the presence or lack of available talent in the long term have to be considered. Ellsbury doesn't fit either of those two conditions. In other words to pay $140M+ to upgrade a 3 WAR player isn't how smart teams are built.

blue911 · « **Reply #1430 on:** November 22, 2013, 09:38:43 am »

Quote from: Ray D on November 22, 2013, 09:08:58 am

I'm still missing the point about Jay. Why would the Cards give up on him? Sure, he dropped off some in 2013, but he put up good numbers his first three years. 2013 may just have been an off-year.

He's not a good fielder

UMDNats · « **Reply #1431 on:** November 22, 2013, 10:02:02 am »

Quote from: blue911 on November 22, 2013, 09:38:22 am

In other words to pay $140M+ to upgrade a 3 WAR player isn't how smart teams are built.

yeah but its the offseason and we need to make some moves

blue911 · « **Reply #1432 on:** November 22, 2013, 10:05:31 am »

Quote from: UMDNats on November 22, 2013, 10:02:02 am

yeah but its the offseason and we need to make some moves

Yeah I know, just not stupid ones.

UMDNats · « **Reply #1433 on:** November 22, 2013, 10:06:51 am »

Quote from: blue911 on November 22, 2013, 10:05:31 am

Yeah I know, just not stupid ones.

no we need to acquire multiple big name free agents or else we will be screwed forever and bryce won't re sign and we won't trade zimmermann and laroche is the worst player in history

sph274 · « **Reply #1434 on:** November 22, 2013, 10:15:14 am »

yea there is zero chance the cardinals trade for denard span. he isnt a huge upgrade over jay and tavares can probably be serviceable in center(they will at least give him a shot there). it makes more sense for them to throw tavares in center, craig in right, adams at 1B, and have jay back them all up. they could then sign drew(who makes a lot of sense for them) and keep all their young players. they can live with the defense considering their lineup and pitching staff will be dominant. they arent desperate for denard span's d in center. you have to really start getting creative to find a realistic way to make that trade desirable for the cards. who would they trade? nobody significant. if you wanna dump span and go with ellsbury, ok, but we might as well keep span as a 4th OF.

WhiteWhale · « **Reply #1435 on:** November 22, 2013, 03:57:14 pm »

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/22/rumored-trade-talks-david-freese-for-peter-bourjos/

I think this makes the trading for Span talk NOT seem so crazy.

Ray D · « **Reply #1436 on:** November 22, 2013, 04:38:42 pm »

Quote from: WhiteWhale on November 22, 2013, 03:57:14 pm

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/22/rumored-trade-talks-david-freese-for-peter-bourjos/

I think this makes the trading for Span talk NOT seem so crazy.

Well it proves that the Cardinals wanted to acquire a centerfielder, but what evidence is there that the Nationals have any interest in replacing Span?

imref · « **Reply #1437 on:** November 22, 2013, 05:18:35 pm »

perhaps the Cards inquired about Span? Given we're hunting for a starter there was probably some common ground to work from.

Mattionals · « **Reply #1438 on:** November 22, 2013, 06:24:15 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on November 22, 2013, 04:38:42 pm

Well it proves that the Cardinals wanted to acquire a centerfielder, but what evidence is there that the Nationals have any interest in replacing Span?

Not saying that this is the right move at all, but Span could always be moved if the Nats were really interested in Ellsbury. I also think that investing in Ellsbury would free up trading Brian Goodwin in a package for a starting pitcher as well. Who knows exactly what Mike Rizzo can and/or will do until it happens. The richest owners in baseball could give him more leash with money or they could hold him to the payroll that the Nats currently are stuck with. There are some decent prospects that could be dealt in a trade as well. As they say, everyone is available for a price.

Dave301 · « **Reply #1439 on:** November 22, 2013, 08:43:07 pm »

Ellsbury isn't a significant improvement over Span. Might as well keep him if they were looking to trade Goodwin.

Mattionals · « **Reply #1440 on:** November 22, 2013, 09:30:13 pm »

Quote from: Dave301 on November 22, 2013, 08:43:07 pm

Ellsbury isn't a significant improvement over Span. Might as well keep him if they were looking to trade Goodwin.

I hope your not serious. Ellsbury is a better hitter and equally as good in CF. He is a true leadoff hitter where Span really isn't. Ellsbury has better power and base running there isn't any contest.

Dave301 · « **Reply #1441 on:** November 22, 2013, 10:05:35 pm »

Quote from: Mattionals on November 22, 2013, 09:30:13 pm

I hope your not serious. Ellsbury is a better hitter and equally as good in CF. He is a true leadoff hitter where Span really isn't. Ellsbury has better power and base running there isn't any contest.

Is he a better hitter? How so? His avg/obp year-to-year is about the same. Span isn't a true leadoff hitter all of a sudden? Ellsbury has "better power"? Sure, he may manage to knock 3-4 more HRs than Span. Doubles and triples are about the same. Ellsbury does have him on stolen bases though.

Is Ellsbury worth the move? He'll have to adjust to a new league, and a new team for the first time, the same way Span did last season. By the time he does, if he does, he'll be pushing 32. Not worth the move at all when we already have Span settled in here.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #1442 on:** November 22, 2013, 11:48:46 pm »

Quote from: Dave301 on November 22, 2013, 10:05:35 pm

Is he a better hitter? How so? His avg/obp year-to-year is about the same. Span isn't a true leadoff hitter all of a sudden? Ellsbury has "better power"? Sure, he may manage to knock 3-4 more HRs than Span. Doubles and triples are about the same. Ellsbury does have him on stolen bases though.

Is Ellsbury worth the move? He'll have to adjust to a new league, and a new team for the first time, the same way Span did last season. By the time he does, if he does, he'll be pushing 32. Not worth the move at all when we already have Span settled in here.

Ellsbury isn't worth the contract, but he's still better than span- an empty .327 OBP with 20 stolen bases isn't a great (or even good) lead off hitter. Ellsbury is better in every triple slash category and steals more bases- that seems to make him the better lead off hitter

Dave301 · « **Reply #1443 on:** November 23, 2013, 04:21:50 am »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on November 22, 2013, 11:48:46 pm

an empty .327 OBP with 20 stolen bases isn't a great (or even good) lead off hitter

You mention his worst year to prove your point. It was a year that he had to adjust to a new team and new league. I guess we should continue defining Werth by that first season he had with the Nats also then. We risk going through the same adjustment period with Ellsbury next season. He isn't that much better than Span to make up for it. He isn't worth the move.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #1444 on:** November 23, 2013, 08:06:32 am »

I didn't say he's worth it, but he is better in every offensive category

blue911 · « **Reply #1445 on:** November 23, 2013, 08:42:09 am »

Their career OBP is damn near identical. Ellsbury at .350, Span's is .351. Ellsbury's career is propped up by his 2011 season which appears to be his Brady Anderson season. The three major rating sites (Fangraphs,Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus) all rank Ellsbury ahead of Span. But the margin is less than 1WAR/season, with the later two having them less than a half win/season apart.

The beauty of comparing these two is they have played the same position,in the same league mostly and a like number of games/PA. There is nothing to suggest that a mega-contract for Ellsbury is either warranted or desired.

Slateman · « **Reply #1446 on:** November 23, 2013, 10:01:35 am »

Quote from: blue911 on November 23, 2013, 08:42:09 am

Their career OBP is damn near identical. Ellsbury at .350, Span's is .351. Ellsbury's career is propped up by his 2011 season which appears to be his Brady Anderson season. The three major rating sites (Fangraphs,Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus) all rank Ellsbury ahead of Span. But the margin is less than 1WAR/season, with the later two having them less than a half win/season apart.

The beauty of comparing these two is they have played the same position,in the same league mostly and a like number of games/PA. There is nothing to suggest that a mega-contract for Ellsbury is either warranted or desired.

Ellsbury has OPS'd under .720 once. Span has done it three times. Ellsbury stole more bases this year than Span has in the last three. Their OBP the last three years is 20+ points apart. Only if you go back before Span's concussions do you start getting close.

He's a better hitter, a better fielder, and, frankly, a better player.

PC · « **Reply #1447 on:** November 23, 2013, 10:11:19 am »

Quote from: Slateman on November 23, 2013, 10:01:35 am

Ellsbury has OPS'd under .720 once. Span has done it three times. Ellsbury stole more bases this year than Span has in the last three. Their OBP the last three years is 20+ points apart. Only if you go back before Span's concussions do you start getting close.

He's a better hitter, a better fielder, and, frankly, a better player.

But he's a much much, almost incalculably, worse value...based on the contract he'll soon sign.

Slateman · « **Reply #1448 on:** November 23, 2013, 11:23:14 am »

Quote from: PC on November 23, 2013, 10:11:19 am

But he's a much much, almost incalculably, worse value...based on the contract he'll soon sign.

Who cares? It's just money.

welch · « **Reply #1449 on:** November 23, 2013, 01:00:02 pm »

Span is good enough, and his hitting improved through the season. Fielding? I've seen few better, and I remember CFs back to Jim Busby. Essence of Span's fielding: I don't remember many acrobatic plays, and he made no errors, suggesting Span was in the right place nearly every time.

No reason to "fix" CF or 2B, since neither position is broken.