The Hunt for a Red October [Wait Until Next Year!]

[HalfSmokes]

I agree with that logic to an extent.  It is one of the issues in analyzing the Barves.  They're streaky as hell.  But again, in the context of discussing the possibility of the Nats catching the Braves, you have to make the assumption that the farce was the 12-2 and that the 8 game losing streak was simply a product of a .500 team going through some variation.  Is it logically sound?  No, not perfectly but in the context of this discussion it's an assumption that has to be made.

I hate making a case based on assuming a collapse by the braves. So long as there are more head to head games than games separating the teams, there's some hope

[wpa2629]

Ok, assuming that the Braves play ~500 ball the rest of the way, they would finish with ~ 88 wins

The Nats would need to go 37-19 to pass them - a 660 clip (math?)

Considering the two steps up, one step back nature of this entire season - seems like a TALL order ...

Sigh ...

[HalfSmokes]

Ok, assuming that the Braves play ~500 ball the rest of the way, they would finish with ~ 88 wins

The Nats would need to go 37-19 to pass them - a 660 clip (math?)

Considering the two steps up, one step back nature of this entire season - seems like a TALL order ...

Sigh ...

that's why head to head is the most important thing- sweep, and we win if both teams go .500, that's the extreme end, and it's unlikely, but if the nats can go 7-2, that only leaves 2.5 games to pick up

[wpa2629]

that's why head to head is the most important thing- sweep, and we win if both teams go .500, that's the extreme end, and it's unlikely, but if the nats can go 7-2, that only leaves 2.5 games to pick up

Sounds hard

[imref]

at this point we've got a 7-8% chance of a playoff spot, we just need to keep winning and see what happens.

[mimontero88]

I hate making a case based on assuming a collapse by the braves. So long as there are more head to head games than games separating the teams, there's some hope

I hear ya.  I'd much rather be making a case that we have a chance just by continuing to win.  But the reality is unless you think we're gonna go 9-0 against the Braves (6-3 would be a great result, almost can't hope for 7-2) we're gonna need some help on their end too.

[HalfSmokes]

Sounds hard

if you really think the teams are equal, right now, they're leading the season series 7-3, so us going 7-2 should be equally plausible

[wpa2629]

if you really think the teams are equal, right now, they're leading the season series 7-3, so us going 7-2 should be equally plausible

Meh - it's not like the Nats didn't literally give away their fair share of games to the Braves earlier. So yeah, it's certainly doable -

And since it's not 9 games in a row, Nats are certainly capable of good spurts - maybe they could be good spurts against the Braves.

Who knows, I've been waiting for this team to "go on a run" all year ...

[MorseTheHorse]

The Braves rotation seems to change every day.  I think a lot depends on how those guys do.  Frankly, if Beachy pitches like he did last year, it's game over folks. 

[wpa2629]

The Braves rotation seems to change every day.  I think a lot depends on how those guys do.  Frankly, if Beachy pitches like he did last year, it's game over folks. 

Yeah, but Medlen sucks this year (relatively speaking) - maybe the 2 will balance out

[DPMOmaha]

We're going to be throwing the biggest guns we've got at 'em. 

[rbw5t]

After tonight, we'll either be 8 or 9 back, though 106 games for each team.  We have 9 games left with ATL (6 of which are at home), and speculatively projecting the rotation out far into the future, it's at least possible that we could go with our 3 horses in all 3 series.  I think we really can't overestimate how important the outcome of those remaining Braves games are -- if we win all 9, we are essentially even; if we go 7-2, we'll have to make up 3-4 games elsewhere, and if we go just 4-5, we'd have to make up 9-10 games elsewhere (and they have a very easy remaining schedule).  I think we'll really know by 8/18 (the end of the 2nd Braves series) whether we still have a shot or if we're done. 

[Smithian]

After tonight, we'll either be 8 or 9 back, though 106 games for each team.  We have 9 games left with ATL (6 of which are at home), and speculatively projecting the rotation out far into the future, it's at least possible that we could go with our 3 horses in all 3 series.  I think we really can't overestimate how important the outcome of those remaining Braves games are -- if we win all 9, we are essentially even; if we go 7-2, we'll have to make up 3-4 games elsewhere, and if we go just 4-5, we'd have to make up 9-10 games elsewhere (and they have a very easy remaining schedule).  I think we'll really know by 8/18 (the end of the 2nd Braves series) whether we still have a shot or if we're done. 

Yes. This shouldn't even be a conversation unless we pound the Braves. I think at worst the Nats can go 7-2 against the Braves and have a chance. And by chance, I mean a very remote one.

[Slateman]

The Barves schedule in September is cake. They will easily get to 90-92 wins.

[Baseball is Life]

Hudson's injury is a big deal. He's the veteran SP they needed down the stretch. They won't have his calming influence so their gag reflex is now more likely to kick in.

[varoadking]

Hudson's injury is a big deal. He's the veteran SP they needed down the stretch. They won't have his calming influence so their gag reflex is now more likely to kick in.

You mean right after they sweep a series from the best team in baseball?

[mach1ne]

I think the Wild Card is much more obtainable than the division.  The Reds have a ton of pitching injuries and have a harder remaining schedule than the Nats.  If we can just continue to win each series, we don't have to worry about which specific opponent. 

[monkeyhit]

Waste of breath.  Management buried this team with its foot-dragging on espinosa, Storen and Eckstein.  You can't snooze and then cruise!

[varoadking]

Waste of breath.  Management buried this team with its foot-dragging on espinosa, Storen and Eckstein.  You can't snooze and then cruise!

Word...

[GburgNatsFan]

This has the feel of an off-day thread.

[Baseball is Life]

You mean right after they sweep a series from the best team in baseball?

We're talking about Aug. and September baseball down the stretch when the Barves are likely to tighten up if the Nats can get close.

[Slateman]

Braves are getting Beachy back. Tehran is throwing like an Ace. Medlen is back. They're set.

[mach1ne]

Braves are getting Beachy back. Tehran is throwing like an Ace. Medlen is back. They're set.

Switch Minor for Beachy. Beachy still hasn't proven himself coming back from TJ.

[Baseball is Life]

Braves are getting Beachy back. Tehran is throwing like an Ace. Medlen is back. They're set.

Not convinced. Medlen has been bad all year. Who knows what Beachy will have. And Tehran is not tested in pressure situations.

They will miss Hudson.

[Mattionals]

I don't care about what the Barves are doing.  Nats need to focus on fixing their own game.  Stop score board watching and take care of their own business.