The Hunt for a Red October [Wait Until Next Year!]

[JCA-CrystalCity]

PC- This team has good power.  It is 3d in the NL in HR and in a 3 way tie for 2d in SLG with the Cards and Barves.  The problem this team has is you can't hit a 3 run homer if you don't get two runners on base before the homer.  You can't knock in 2 or 3 runs with an XBH if you don't have 2 or 3 runners on.  The OBP of this team is lower than every other NL playoff team except the Pirates, who we edge out .315 to .313.

Now maybe a good manager manages around that (not by bunting early in the game and giving you even less of a chance at multiple runs, but by smarter subs and more aggression late and close), but I tend to think the horribly unclutch middle and late relief had something to do with the close losses, too.

[Displaced Bucco]

I think this has been touched on before, but the season series tracker is pretty illuminating on both where we fall short and how we could expect to do if we had made the playoffs.

Against teams currently in the playoff hunt (yes, I include the O's!) the Nats are 20-37 for a .351 winning percentage...how far do you think that would get us in the playoffs?? 

BTW the group of Nats opponents with an over .500 winning percentage is the same group.  If we are to ever be a competative team, we have to start winning against other competative clubs.  .351 against teams over .500 isn't very competative, the Reds are the only club over .500 that we took a series from this year, and that was 4-3.

[GburgNatsFan]

And it's not the pitching, it's the hitting.

I wonder, did our record improve against those teams after Schu replaced Eckstein? I mean, that event pre-dates our getting hot as hell by about 10 days.

I think this has been touched on before, but the season series tracker is pretty illuminating on both where we fall short and how we could expect to do if we had made the playoffs.

Against teams currently in the playoff hunt (yes, I include the O's!) the Nats are 20-37 for a .351 winning percentage...how far do you think that would get us in the playoffs?? 

BTW the group of Nats opponents with an over .500 winning percentage is the same group.  If we are to ever be a competative team, we have to start winning against other competative clubs.  .351 against teams over .500 isn't very competative, the Reds are the only club over .500 that we took a series from this year, and that was 4-3.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We played most of the playoff teams before 8/20 and our hot streak.  Since 8/20, we went 2-1 @KCR and 2-1 v. ATL. 

Also, that lousy record v. playoff teams is closely related to the 7/8 - 8/7 8-18 stretch.  We went 1 -11 v playoff teams during that time (0-3 LAD, 1-3 Pitt, 0-2 @ Det, 0-3 ATL).  Pull out that stretch, and it is not good, 13-18, but not fatal.

[Displaced Bucco]

We played most of the playoff teams before 8/20 and our hot streak.  Since 8/20, we went 2-1 @KCR and 2-1 v. ATL. 

Also, that lousy record v. playoff teams is closely related to the 7/8 - 8/7 8-18 stretch.  We went 1 -11 v playoff teams during that time (0-3 LAD, 1-3 Pitt, 0-2 @ Det, 0-3 ATL).  Pull out that stretch, and it is not good, 13-18, but not fatal.

Or did playing playoff teams lead to the bad stretch? 

Probably a little of both....I'd hope for something approaching .500 against good teams tho', could live with the 13-18, but would like to see better!

[monkeyhit]

Just face it - we're not playoff caliber.  Many things must change before we ever will be.

[DPMOmaha]

many?

[PC]

Just face it - we're not playoff caliber.  Many things must change before we ever will be.

Wrong.  100% wrong.

First, AL teams don't matter.  The rosters are built completely different and different game is played.  Just watch an AL game and you'll know that.

Against the NL playoff teams, 28 of the games, two thirds were decided by 2 or fewer runs.  Losing so many close games is largely a Davey Johnson issue.  Get a manager in who understands managing where runs at a premium and our record against these teams improves.  Get a really good manager, one that knows his players strengths and weaknesses and our record improves considerably...with largely the same roster of position players.

This team is that manager away from being in the playoffs THIS year.

[varoadking]

This team is that manager away from being in the playoffs THIS year.

I fully support your position...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not sure any manager was going to take this team to the playoffs this year with the spit the bit bullpen and the roster depth problems.

[MorseTheHorse]

I'm not sure any manager was going to take this team to the playoffs this year with the spit the bit bullpen and the roster depth problems.

Shirley, you can't be serious. 

[Smithian]

Just face it - we're not playoff caliber.  Many things must change before we ever will be.

The team is a year past winning 98 games and will win about 85 this season. That isn't a situation you have to blow up and restart. Shuffle bullpen arms, a a better bat at 1st or CF, and the bench should be reevaluated. That isn't "many".

[Smithian]

Shirley, you can't be serious. 

Managers are very low impact. I'm a Davey fan but last year's team was going to kick ass whoever the manager was and this year's team was going to struggle whoever the manager was considering they couldn't hit.

[PC]

Managers are very low impact. I'm a Davey fan but last year's team was going to kick ass whoever the manager was and this year's team was going to struggle whoever the manager was considering they couldn't hit.

Managers have a HUGE impact when managing is done poorly and Davey did a very poor job this year managing this team.

[Mattionals]

The team is a year past winning 98 games and will win about 85 this season. That isn't a situation you have to blow up and restart. Shuffle bullpen arms, a a better bat at 1st or CF, and the bench should be reevaluated. That isn't "many".

Denard stays in CF.  He improved with Schu's tutelage and I think the better he did, the more the fans and team got behind him.  I'd expect him to play closer to a true leadoff guy next season as he has set himself up very well for a good bounce back campaign.

LaRoche though should be toast.

[imref]

Denard stays in CF.  He improved with Schu's tutelage and I think the better he did, the more the fans and team got behind him.  I'd expect him to play closer to a true leadoff guy next season as he has set himself up very well for a good bounce back campaign.

LaRoche though should be toast.

FWIW:
LaRoche 2013: .237   / .332 / .403 20HRs
Career Average: .264 / .337 / .474 26HRs

He's having a down year, but it's not like he turned into Adam Dunn 2012

[GburgNatsFan]

Managers are very low impact. I'm a Davey fan but last year's team was going to kick ass whoever the manager was and this year's team was going to struggle whoever the manager was considering they couldn't hit.

In game five last year, with Storen imploding, and the entire pitching staff available, he had no one warming.

This year, with a  known shoulder injury, Espinosa played virtually every day even though he couldn't hit a lick, right to the ASB.

Managers are mostly fairly low impact, except in some very critical situations.

[imref]

In game five last year, with Storen imploding, and the entire pitching staff available, he had no one warming.

This year, with a  known shoulder injury, Espinosa played virtually every day even though he couldn't hit a lick, right to the ASB.

Managers are mostly fairly low impact, except in some very critical situations.

even worse was putting in Jackson when Mattheus was available (and had pitched well to that point).

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This year, with a  known shoulder injury, Espinosa played virtually every day even though he couldn't hit a lick, right to the ASB.

Actually, Espinosa played about 1/4 of the season.  44 games, 167 PAs, 371.2 innings.  It probably was too much.  He played 6/1 and 6/2, and then was gone. 

Looking closer at the game log, he took a week off in mid April (shoulder?), and a week in May (5/23 - 28), then was given the boot after 5 more games.

[GburgNatsFan]

Actually, Espinosa played about 1/4 of the season.  44 games, 167 PAs, 371.2 innings.  It probably was too much.  He played 6/1 and 6/2, and then was gone. 

Looking closer at the game log, he took a week off in mid April (shoulder?), and a week in May (5/23 - 28), then was given the boot after 5 more games.

Yeah, you're right, it was not the ASB.

My point still stands. Managers manage every day and are bound to do things that seem stupid during a season. But six weeks is enough time to see that a guy cannot make contact, and Game 5s are all-hands-on-deck: if you're a pitcher, and didn't start Game 4 or Game 5, you're available. Someone should almost always be warming.