Message #1072623

[HalfSmokes]

I think its ridiculous to look down on HS pitchers or write them off because of a high bust rate.

EVERY position, from every level has a long list of busts.

College pitchers are just as risky as HS arms. Look at the list of college arms that have been complete busts ...
2001 - Dewon Brazelton, Josh Karp, Chris Smith
2002 - Bryan Bullington btw, Zach Greinke was a top ten pick this year.
2003 - Kyle Sleeth
2004 - Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers, Wade Townsend, Thomas Diamond
2005 - Wade Townsend
2006 - Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller. This was Kershaw's year.
2007 - Daniel Moskos, Casey Weathers. This year also had Bumgarner and Jarrod Parker taken in the top 10.

I stopped there, because some guys still could develop. That list of names doenst include names like Detwiler, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Prior, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm, or Jeff Francis who have all made the bigs at least, and had some level of success. Although none of them have lived up to their billing to date.

Certainly there are the David Prices, Verlanders, even Ricky Romero's in there. But there are FAR more busts among the college arm than their are successes.

Should we eliminate college arms from consideration as well? Should we write off their potential?

All that matters is who you think has the most talent and the ability to make the biggest impact at the big league level. There is risk involved with every single kid you select. College kids have injury risks as well. This list is just the top ten, because stretching it further would take forever. This list shows just how high bust rates are among arms, period. Its not exclusive to HSers. Discrediting Giolito's talent or potential because he's a high schooler is ridiculous.

That's why I favor quantity and wouldn't sacrifice next years pick