2012 Arbitration Results

[MarquisDeSade]

Maybe I'm forgetting something, but I thought that if you won in arbitration the contract was guaranteed. 

[Tyler Durden]

If Morse wins and gets a contract (non guaranteed) worth $1.5 million more than the team wants to pay him, Rizzo is certainly going to start looking at trade options.  If Morse wins and we sign Fielder, Morse is at risk of being cut if we don't find a trade partner.  The chances of the team losing are slim, but the only time they lost in the past they cut Hill in spring training.  Now Hill and Morse are hardly comparable, but this team wants the message to sink in that you accept our terms or you get cut.

If they sign Fielder, they're trading Morse - I agree.  There is zero chance of him being cut. 

[natsfan4evr]

If they sign Fielder, they're trading Morse - I agree.  There is zero chance of him being cut. 

Why would they trade Morse? Trade LaRoche sure, but Morse? He'll be the left fielder and Werth will move to center when Bryce Harper finally gets called up.

[Obed_Marsh]

They won't cut Morse regardless of the result of arbitration but I can see it diminishing his trade value or making it more likely he is traded.

[The Chief]

MDS the full contract isn't guaranteed until the end of spring training or thereabouts, I forget exactly when the cutoff is.  Before that it's only one eighth guaranteed, I believe

[Tyler Durden]

Why would they trade Morse? Trade LaRoche sure, but Morse? He'll be the left fielder and Werth will move to center when Bryce Harper finally gets called up.

I think they'll trade both LaRoche and Morse.  Werth won't play CF for more than 2012.  Morse has a lot of value being under team control for another couple of years.  They may be able to trade him for a true CF and play Werth and Harper at the corners.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm trying to figure out where each side got its number. 

Ellsbury just settled for ~ 3.5 times his last year salary ($8MM) in his 2d arbitration year, and he had a better year than Morse.  That would support the Nats.  Alex Gordon, in his 3d year of arbitration, flied at $5.45 MM, with KC at $4.15MM, coming off a better year than Morse in terms WAR, and steals (17) but a worse year in terms of HR (23) and RBI (87); arbitrators look at traditional stats (batting average was a wash - .303).  Gordon is coming off of a $1.4 MM prior year.  looks like it is line with the raise Gordon is getting in terms of % jump, and arguably Morse is coming off a worse year.

These settlements seem pretty far off the FG rule of thumb that a player gets about 60% of a free agent's $/WAR in the second year of arb and 80% in the 3d.  That would be $3MM per projected WAR for a 2d year player and about $4MM for a 3d year.  No way that works in these cases.  that would have gordon at 1 - 1.25 WAR and Ellsbury at 2.7 WAR.

[Baseball is Life]

I think they'll trade both LaRoche and Morse.  Werth won't play CF for more than 2012.  Morse has a lot of value being under team control for another couple of years.  They may be able to trade him for a true CF and play Werth and Harper at the corners.

Yep, that's what will happen if they sign Prince. Werth is not the long-term answer in CF. And, no, Harper is not a CF. He's NEVER played the position in the minors and it would be insane to put him there at the MLB level. I suppose they could keep him down longer and let him work there but I don't see that happening.

[aspenbubba]

I think they'll trade both LaRoche and Morse.  Werth won't play CF for more than 2012.  Morse has a lot of value being under team control for another couple of years.  They may be able to trade him for a true CF and play Werth and Harper at the corners.

I agree with you and this is all predicated on PF being signed ? Correct?

[PowerBoater69]

MDS the full contract isn't guaranteed until the end of spring training or thereabouts, I forget exactly when the cutoff is.  Before that it's one eighth guaranteed, I believe

I believe that a third of the contract is guaranteed until some point early in spring training, then half of the contract is guaranteed until late spring when the full value is locked in.  I remember lobbying hard for FLop to be cut before the cut off dates.  If someone else doesn't beat me to it, I'll look up the details tonight.

[shoeshineboy]

They won't cut Morse regardless of the result of arbitration but I can see it diminishing his trade value or making it more likely he is traded.

That's the rub. If his salary ends up above market, it makes it tougher to trade him. But if he has diminished trade value, then there is less a reason to trade in the near term him unless the motivation is purely about fitting under a payroll budget cap. And let's face it, if you trade a player like Morse simply to save 1.5M on the current season's payroll, your focus is clearly on penny pinching and not the product.

[tomterp]

If Morse wins and we sign Fielder, Morse is at risk of being cut if we don't find a trade partner. 

 

[shoeshineboy]

BTW, if Morse goes to arbitration all his agent has to do is submit LaRoche's contract with the Nats as exhibit A.

[tomterp]

Yep, that's what will happen if they sign Prince. Werth is not the long-term answer in CF. And, no, Harper is not a CF. He's NEVER played the position in the minors and it would be insane to put him there at the MLB level. I suppose they could keep him down longer and let him work there but I don't see that happening.

20 games at CF for Hagerstown this past season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harper002bry

[Obed_Marsh]

That's the rub. If his salary ends up above market, it makes it tougher to trade him. But if he has diminished trade value, then there is less a reason to trade in the near term him unless the motivation is purely about fitting under a payroll budget cap. And let's face it, if you trade a player like Morse simply to save 1.5M on the current season's payroll, your focus is clearly on penny pinching and not the product.

All true but the original contention seems to me to be a tempest in a teapot. No way in hell do they cut Morse over 1.5M this season.

[The Chief]

All true but the original contention seems to me to be a tempest in a teapot. No way in hell do they cut Morse over 1.5M this season.

Imagine PA's excuses if they did

[HalfSmokes]

All true but the original contention seems to me to be a tempest in a teapot. No way in hell do they cut Morse over 1.5M this season.

cut no, trade for AA reliever with no shot at the majors...

[tomterp]

cut no, trade for AA reliever with no shot at the majors...

Stop smoking dope.

[HalfSmokes]

Stop smoking dope.

seriously, if Morse wins arbitration and is traded for anything other than a huge haul that addresses actual needs, I'll be shocked

[tomterp]

seriously, if Morse wins arbitration and is traded for anything other than a huge haul that addresses actual needs, I'll be shocked

Ok, it read to me like you were expecting him to be traded for a non-descript reliever.

Hill got cut because his injury risk didn't get fairly reflected in his arbitration win.  In short, it was pretty obvious that they were going to be overpaying, and why do that?

In Morse's case, even a win by him leaves the Nats with a bargain stud.

[Obed_Marsh]

Imagine PA's excuses if they did

Well his swing is too long and he has problems with the opposing team's best pitchers.

[tomterp]

Well his swing is too long and he has problems with the opposing team's best pitchers.

True.  He ain't no Guzman.  Maybe good as a bench bat against lefties only.

[Lintyfresh85]

True.  He ain't no Guzman.  Maybe good as a bench bat against lefties only.

Did you really say Guzman was a better hitter?

[zoom]

If we sign Fielder, Morse will be moved when Harper comes up.  If we don't sign PF, he'll be our first baseman. 

[Baseball is Life]

20 games at CF for Hagerstown this past season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harper002bry

My bad then. But scouts seem to think his OF play is the weakest part of his game so CF is not where I would put him. Apparently he has the wheels but CF takes more than that.