2012 Payroll: $83.87M - My Best Estimate

[PowerBoater69]

PANatsFan, over or under on $78 million payroll?

Based on the spreadsheet, the only way our opening day payroll hits $78 is if Harper and Maya start the season on the 25 man roster and we pick up an expensive bench player.  More likely it'll be in the $73 range, a marginal increase from last year even when adjusted for inflation.  Cue the fireworks.

[PANatsFan]

Based on the spreadsheet, the only way our opening day payroll hits $78 is if Harper and Maya start the season on the 25 man roster and we pick up an expensive bench player.  More likely it'll be in the $73 range, a marginal increase from last year even when adjusted for inflation.  Cue the fireworks.

Maya and Harper get paid regardless

[Lintyfresh85]

Maya and Harper get paid regardless

They're not on the 25 man opening day roster, which is how Payroll is calculated.

[PowerBoater69]

Maya and Harper get paid regardless

If Cots (or any other source of payroll numbers) included players not on the 25 man roster then those guys would be relevant to the discussion of total payroll, but they don't, so including them for the Nats falsely raises our payroll number in comparison to that of other teams. 

The line about hidden expenses comes into play here, Phil Woods and Mark Lerner would have us believe that the Nats are spending more on minor league talent, development facilities, and scouts than other teams, which accounts for the huge deficit in major league payroll.  Which is of course bullcrap, but it sounds nice since there is no way to account for total expenditures.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

PB69 - What  cots says is it includes major league contracts plus signing bonuses, so guys like Harper,  Maya, Rendon, Purke, and others not on split contracts  count on their calculation of major league payroll.  That was the basis for the $68MM figure that gets quoted for last year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=150

Opening Day payrolls
(Major League contracts plus pro-rated signing bonuses):
2011: $ 68,306,929

[PowerBoater69]

PB69 - What  cots says is it includes major league contracts plus signing bonuses, so guys like Harper,  Maya, Rendon, Purke, and others not on split contracts  count on their calculation of major league payroll.  That was the basis for the $68MM figure that gets quoted for last year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=150

Interesting, obviously I was pretty sure that it was just the 25 man.  Wouldn't the two draftees be excluded if their bonuses were paid last year?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I suppose if you are doing cash flow, which maybe this thread is trying to do, then the bonus does not count.  Still, there is an annual salary component, and if it is a major league contract, then whatever the pay is for the year would come out of the Nats cash.  As for MLB salary calculations (lux tax, revenue sharing, etc...) I think the relevant number is the AAV, which includes a pro-rated portion of the bonus.   As for 2-way contracts that specify different pay in the majors and the minors and non-guaranteed contracts, I don't know how that figures.

[The Chief]

JCA I'm sure it wasn't your intention anyway, but pointing out that even less money was actually on the field last year isn't making the team look any better.

[comish4lif]

I suppose if you are doing cash flow, which maybe this thread is trying to do, then the bonus does not count.  Still, there is an annual salary component, and if it is a major league contract, then whatever the pay is for the year would come out of the Nats cash.  As for MLB salary calculations (lux tax, revenue sharing, etc...) I think the relevant number is the AAV, which includes a pro-rated portion of the bonus.   As for 2-way contracts that specify different pay in the majors and the minors and non-guaranteed contracts, I don't know how that figures.

The cash flow calculation is what I am going for - trying to calculate what the Nats are spending in a given year. That's why I have only the 2012 portion of Purke and Rendon in my spreadsheet - it is what it will cost the Nats, this year.

AAV is nice for MLB and revenue sharing, but I don't think it provides an accurate year-to-year number as to what the Nats are spending. So, the MLB number would be bumped up by counting the AAV, but would also be suppressed by not counting Purke/Rendon at all. As for someone on a split contract - like Cameron - I think the folks (USA Today) that generally publish the opening day calculations will count Cameron's MLB salary if he makes the team, and ignore it if he starts in Syracuse.

This is not helped at all by how close the Nats keep salary numbers. I still cannot find what we are paying Cameron or DeRosa. Or Morse, I know the years and dollars, but not the yearly breakdown.

[MrsMorse]

Stop.  Stop right there. 

This team is good enough to finish third in the NL East and maybe win 80 games.  Nothing more. 

I'm so sure of that I'll put $100 bucks on it for anyone willing to take it.

You do that and you're sleeping on the balcony until next June.

[blue911]

Stop.  Stop right there. 

This team is good enough to finish third in the NL East and maybe win 80 games.  Nothing more. 

I'm so sure of that I'll put $100 bucks on it for anyone willing to take it.

You do that and you're sleeping on the balcony until next June.

I'll take that bet 
 

[spidernat]

I don't buy that it's really Mrs MDS. MDS has as many personalities here as he does teams to pull for.

[comish4lif]

You do that and you're sleeping on the balcony until next June.

Someone ought to start a website that takes bets from internet strangers, has each party digitally sign the terms of the bet, and hold the money for both parties. And then pay the winner at the appropriate time.

[MrsMorse]

I don't buy that it's really Mrs MDS. MDS has as many personalities here as he does teams to pull for.

And twice as many hats. I exist, I assure you - I just don't waste my days pretending to be Internet Tough Guy. Also, would MDS post this picture of himself rocking a sleeved blanket because his widdle feet were cold? (Actually, he probably would.)

[houston-nat]

And twice as many hats. I exist, I assure you - I just don't waste my days pretending to be Internet Tough Guy. Also, would MDS post this picture of himself rocking a sleeved blanket because his widdle feet were cold? (Actually, he probably would.)

(Image removed from quote.)

Okay, now I know Mrs MDS is real, because the MDS we know would never put those cracka-azz posters on his wall.

Random half-related thought: I bet there are a bunch of rappers who wish they could have put Toulouse-Lautrec in one of their videos. A midget and a monocle? freak yeah.

EDIT: Somehow the sentences were in the wrong order.

[PANatsFan]

JCA I'm sure it wasn't your intention anyway, but pointing out that even less money was actually on the field last year isn't making the team look any better.

Obligations are obligations; they have to pay that bum Maya regardless... I was pointing out that it's a firm number (jack it up a mil for Lidge), but yeah, it seems lower this way I suppose.

[hammondsnats]

Obligations are obligations; they have to pay that bum Maya regardless... I was pointing out that it's a firm number (jack it up a mil for Lidge), but yeah, it seems lower this way I suppose.

in other words, yeah the payroll is once again way lower than it should be. 

[comish4lif]

Obligations are obligations; they have to pay that bum Maya regardless... I was pointing out that it's a firm number (jack it up a mil for Lidge), but yeah, it seems lower this way I suppose.

Actually, I'd bump it up a half mil - I think Lidge gets Ryan Perry's bullpen spot - so, subtract Perry's ~$500K and add in a mill for Lidge.

I'm waiting to update since I don't yet have the Morse breakdown. I know that it's $10.5M over 2 years, but I don't know what he gets in 2012.

For those looking for 2012 payroll number, I can subtract out Maya, Purke, Rendon and Harper. That just makes it an even lower number. I'd still show those numbers side by side.

[comish4lif]

With Lidge and Jackson in and likely Lannan out, I'd estimate the payroll at $80.5, give or take.

For the group, has anyone seen the official figures for Jackson? The breakdown of the Morse deal? The numbers for DeRosa?

[blue911]

With Lidge and Jackson in and likely Lannan out, I'd estimate the payroll at $80.5, give or take.

For the group, has anyone seen the official figures for Jackson? The breakdown of the Morse deal? The numbers for DeRosa?

Morse (per cots)    $.5M signing bonus.   $3.25M in 12, $6.75M in 13

[Tyler Durden]

Didn't see this posted anywhere else - Jeff Passan of Yahoo has us down for $89 mil for payroll.  We're right around the Braves, Blue Jays, Mets, and Reds according to the article.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AuAu3EKl2HOY4vIhGuw8R38RvLYF?slug=jp-passan_oakland_athletics_yoenis_cespedes_021312

Mindfacting here, but that seems high to me.  I also think they'll trade Lannan before the season. 

[Lintyfresh85]

Listed as one of the 15 lowest in the game.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

he says his source is BP.  tom or someone - is that really just a player pay projection or does it include other charges that are figured into payroll for MLB accounting purposes (like insurance and other admin costs)?

[comish4lif]

Alright, I've updated the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah8KBga3QqVzdEhYUXZtWDJQdjJxZVozNlJIVXJ1c1E

My current guesstimate is: $83,870,000

I added Jackson at $9,000,000 and gave him Ryan Perry's roster spot; Jackson has $2M deferred. As the roster looks now, I have to carry Jackson, Lannan and Wang on my 25 man roster. They are all too expensive to be sent to the minors, and will get their MLB contracts if they get sent down anyways.

I added in Rick Ankiel at $1.25M, a $500K salary for Andres Blanco, and then saved some money on the Morse extension. In his 2 year  extension, Morse gets paid less in 2012 ($3.25M) than the amount he filed for in arbitration ($3.5M).

I'm pretty sure that the numbers at BP are just the salaries and do not include admin costs or insurance.

One more note, if I make this an Average Annual Contract number, the payroll number jumps to: $93,262,500.

[Slateman]

Whooray spending!!!!!