There is a lot of cultural pressure on Japanese players not to cost the posting team its money. Dice-K went through much of the same negotiation, where Boras argued the posting fee should not count against the FA contract. Eventually, he settled for the $52MM. Teh fact that Texas has opened with $52 MM is an indication that the money will be higher. Just a guess - 6 / $60mm gets the deal done on the last day. He is probably not getting better than 5/ $75MM next year, which is darn good money, so the risk of arm injury and the harm it would do to his marketability in Japan will lead him to agree to a deal.