Author Topic: Stats. Giggity!  (Read 33099 times)

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Online blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #25: December 15, 2011, 04:34:15 PM »
"best to date" is like saying democracy is the least worst form of government.

Pretty much.

Offline Vega

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #26: December 15, 2011, 04:42:28 PM »
We must not forget to factor in Mike Cameron's dERP, WaNG, VP, (Veteran presence.) sHIMMY, and bEEf, adjusted for werewolves, of course.

Offline welch

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #27: December 15, 2011, 08:14:02 PM »
It tracks the ball.

I'm sure you can add variables such as location of defenders and ball speed into the equation and it'll figure it out as well.

Pitch f/x works great... it's made by the same company (I think)... and I know several MLB teams have bought the technology (field f/x)... so if they think it works, I'm sure it'd be fine for public consumption.

Fielding seems much harder to stat-ify than pitching.

How does "it" decide if a player was well positioned before the ball was hit? For an OF, you could measure how far the fielder had to run, but that can depend on the pitcher...for instance, if the pitcher is supposed to throw outside and the fielders are shaded to the opposite field, but pitcher misses badly and the batter pulls the ball. Fielder was in the right position but other things changed the play.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #28: December 15, 2011, 08:16:23 PM »
The better question is - what do you do with the old "metrics" using these mixed methodologies?  Throw them out?  Not that up until a point "metric" and methodology X was used and from this point forward methodology Y is where it's at?  Obviously you could come up with a conversion system but would you really feel comfortable drawing any contract related inference from that?

Online blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #29: December 15, 2011, 08:31:48 PM »
The better question is - what do you do with the old "metrics" using these mixed methodologies?  Throw them out?  Not that up until a point "metric" and methodology X was used and from this point forward methodology Y is where it's at?  Obviously you could come up with a conversion system but would you really feel comfortable drawing any contract related inference from that?

It's basically using high speed photography to quantify fielding range. 

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #30: December 15, 2011, 08:33:39 PM »
It's basically using high speed photography to quantify fielding range. 

Which the old systems didn't.  See the problem?

Online blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #31: December 15, 2011, 08:37:42 PM »
Which the old systems didn't.  See the problem?

None of the other systems used high speed photography , so I guess I don't.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #32: December 15, 2011, 08:39:21 PM »
He's saying you can't compare players from the past to current players because you can't retrofit the technology.

Online blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #33: December 15, 2011, 08:49:01 PM »
He's saying you can't compare players from the past to current players because you can't retrofit the technology.

Ah okay but who really cares? Nobody is going to change their opinion of Willie Mays just because there is a better system being used today.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #34: December 15, 2011, 09:17:57 PM »
Ah okay but who really cares? Nobody is going to change their opinion of Willie Mays just because there is a better system being used today.

Proving my point already good chap!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #35: December 15, 2011, 09:26:37 PM »
I have this feeling that old defensive stats, UZR, and some future way of analyzing defense will be the equivalent of comparing leaching, civil war surgery, and 1980s medical practice.

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #36: December 15, 2011, 09:29:34 PM »
I have this feeling that old defensive stats, UZR, and some future way of analyzing defense will be the equivalent of comparing leaching, civil war surgery, and 1980s medical practice.

leeching*

:)

Offline tomterp

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #37: December 16, 2011, 08:41:33 AM »
Ah okay but who really cares? Nobody is going to change their opinion of Willie Mays just because there is a better system being used today.

Sometimes I think Willie earned half his rep off that one over the shoulder catch that wasn't nearly as difficult as Roger's catch.


Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #38: December 16, 2011, 08:52:46 AM »
Sometimes I think Willie earned half his rep off that one over the shoulder catch that wasn't nearly as difficult as Roger's catch.

 :roll:

:stir:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #39: August 09, 2012, 10:37:39 PM »
Here's a fun tool to calculate win probability added, from Hardball Times.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/other/wpa_inquirer.php

One thing you'll need to input is run environment, or average runs.  A way to do that is to go to ESPN's stat site, look at MLB runs, calculate an average, take the park factor (also on ESPN) , and multiply the park factor times the average runs.   For example, Nats Park is playing as an slightly above average park for run production (1.025) and MLB average runs is 4.35, so the run environment in Nats park is about 4.5, to the nearest half run. 

Suppose Burnett pitches a clean 8th with a 2 run lead.  the difference in the likelihood of a win from bases empty top of the 8th with a 2 run lead and bases empty top of the 9th 2 run lead is 6% in a 4.5 run environment.  the likelihood of win goes from 87% to 93%.

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #40: August 09, 2012, 11:06:20 PM »
Good Ol' OPS and WHIP are good enough for my simple mind.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #41: August 14, 2012, 10:42:44 AM »
Desmond - 2nd in WAR for all MLB SS
Zimmerman - 5th in WAR for all MLB 3B
Espinosa - 7th in WAR for all MLB 2B
LaRoche - 8th in WAR for all MLB 1B

What an infield!

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #42: August 14, 2012, 10:48:29 AM »
So where is Lombardosi ?

Desmond - 2nd in WAR for all MLB SS
Zimmerman - 5th in WAR for all MLB 3B
Espinosa - 7th in WAR for all MLB 2B
LaRoche - 8th in WAR for all MLB 1B

What an infield!


Offline Mathguy

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #43: August 14, 2012, 10:51:26 AM »
Willie didn't have the corner or wall to deal with like Roger, but Willie had much more variability in the ground he had to cover to end up in the right position

Sometimes I think Willie earned half his rep off that one over the shoulder catch that wasn't nearly as difficult as Roger's catch.




Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #44: August 14, 2012, 10:52:04 AM »
So where is Lombardosi ?



He doesn't qualify due to a lack of PA's, but if he did...

24th among 2B.
38th among LF.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #45: August 14, 2012, 11:36:33 AM »
Another interesting stat... Nats are by far and away the worst base running team in baseball according to the base running stats (which doesn't include SB/CS... and only focuses on taking extras bases on singles, doubles etc.)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

Here's the definition of how it's calculated.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-primer/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #46: August 14, 2012, 11:41:46 AM »
There's a lot of love for Espinosa's defense buried in those stats, along with his nice offensive recovery.   While his arm has been scattershot at SS (5 throwing errors), he has been remarkable good at getting to balls within the normal SS range, and has been able to get to balls out of zone at a very high rate.  UZR of course loves him, too.

If we ever bit the bullet and used him in a deal for a white whale, most teams would look at him as a SS.  If Rendon were capable of playing 2d, this might be very tempting.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #47: August 14, 2012, 11:45:45 AM »
There's a lot of love for Espinosa's defense buried in those stats, along with his nice offensive recovery.   While his arm has been scattershot at SS (5 throwing errors), he has been remarkable good at getting to balls within the normal SS range, and has been able to get to balls out of zone at a very high rate.  UZR of course loves him, too.

If we ever bit the bullet and used him in a deal for a white whale, most teams would look at him as a SS.  If Rendon were capable of playing 2d, this might be very tempting.

Espinosa has the third highest UZR among all MLB infielders.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #48: August 14, 2012, 11:50:04 AM »
It's a spike for one season.  last year he was slightly above average. Still, by reputation from the scouts and BA, he is supposed to be a superior defender.  now it is showing up in the stats.  Consensus!

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #49: August 14, 2012, 12:02:49 PM »
          Win    Loss    PCT
April     14     8        .636
May     15     13       .536
June     15     11      .577
July      17     9        .654
Aug      11     3        .786