Author Topic: Nationals vs Mariners, Game 1 (Read 39162 times)

Sharp · « **Reply #100 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:09:48 pm »

Quote from: Evolution33 on June 21, 2011, 02:05:54 pm

I don't think I was trying to say what you think I was trying to say. My point is Fister's numbers are damn near meaningless as he has never faced the nats and only Pudge and Hairston have ever seen him before for a total of 6 PA. Seeing a pitcher in a live game is a lot different than seeing him on video. Even the Mariners numbers vs. Livo mean very little as most of the PA are Olivio and that was from when he was on the Marlins and Livan was a differnt pitcher.

Atilano was a poor pitcher. Doug Fister is an average to above average major league pitcher there is a world of difference between the two. The only reason Atilano had any success was because no one had ever seen him. My bringing up his name at all only seemed to cause confusion, but I think hsi limited success shows how even guys with no stuff, no control, and no intelligence can have limited success just because they are unseen.

Fister could easily shutout the Nats tonight and it will be partly because he is talented and partly because they have no idea of what his stuff is like in a 3D world.

Ah, I see what you're saying. In that case, sure, you're right that we know nothing about how our hitters will be against him specifically. But since we don't, until further data comes in I think it's probably reasonable to assume we'll do about as well as the average hitter is expected to do against him. That means we should expect him to give up about 4 runs per nine, and since he's gone about 6 2/3 each time we should expect him to give up about 3 runs. The rest is up to, um, all the other players on the field.

Quote from: sportsfan882 on June 21, 2011, 02:08:21 pm

You wanted a reason why they had a slightly better record than us and I gave it to you. Weaker schedule.

Actually, BP's adjusted standings (which account, among other things, for league and schedule) think the Mariners are a good deal better than we are. But since this is baseball that doesn't mean more than a few percent either way.

sruiz59 · « **Reply #101 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:09:49 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 21, 2011, 01:58:35 pm

Just a question.

Which team has the winning record, again?

I'm glad everyone is so confident... but to say these are games the Nats SHOULD win, confuses me.

In fact, I imagine the Nats are considered "Should" win games for Mariners fans, as well.

But this is a 4-10 version of the Mariners (that's their record when Fister starts). Fortunately for the Nats, and unfortunately for your argument, Pineda and Hernandez will have no bearing on tonight's game like they have had on the Mariners Win/Loss record.

Plus they are traveling across the country. Check their record in those types of games--it's not good.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #102 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:12:01 pm »

Linty, SF's point was the Nats don't get the luxury of playing in the crummy AL West. The NL East is tougher and the Nats - as we all know - have had the toughest schedule to date.

But Fister has been a nice #5 guy for them, but he's not as good away from Safeco as he is when he wears the white uniform. The last three weeks, we've beaten some stud aces, so we should feel like we have a shot against anyone.

I still can't grasp how this club is only two games back of .500 with their best player playing in only 14 games.

Now lets sweep these guys and hit the road with a winning record.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #103 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:12:28 pm »

Quote from: Tyler Durden on June 21, 2011, 02:09:01 pm

Because they're going up against a guy with a career 4 ERA and a good bit higher away from his home park that favors hitters. And they're going up against a team that's collectively batting .200 or whatever.

Livo's career home ERA is 4.13 with a WHIP of 1.37

You don't see me posting that the Nats are screwed and the M's "SHOULD" win the game.

Why do the same for Fister?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #104 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:15:45 pm »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on June 21, 2011, 01:18:10 pm

That's the best lineup we have. No excuse not to win tonight even with Livo on the mound.

Seattle's active roster is batting .370/.407/.605 off of Livo in 81 ABs.

a lot of that was piled up when he was with the Twins and stinking.

OldChelsea · « **Reply #105 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:15:59 pm »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on June 21, 2011, 02:08:21 pm

You wanted a reason why they had a slightly better record than us and I gave it to you. Weaker schedule.

Maybe so overall, but their campaign thus far has not been without major wins: in late April and early May they swept three from the Tigers on the road then followed that with 2 of 3 at Boston and then 2 of 3 at home against Texas; took 2 of 3 from the Yankees Memorial Day weekend, 3 of 4 from the Rays a bit later, then 2 of 3 from the Phillies this past weekend.

In fact they're 5-1 overall against the NL thus far - swept the Padres on the road back in May, plus the aforementioned Phillies series.

The Chief · « **Reply #106 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:16:05 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 21, 2011, 02:12:28 pm

Livo's career home ERA is 4.13 with a WHIP of 1.37

You don't see me posting that the Nats are screwed and the M's "SHOULD" win the game.

Why do the same for Fister?

You're such a cherrypicker when it suits you. Livo's home ERA at Nats park is 3.27. This year it's 1.97.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #107 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:17:48 pm »

Quote from: The Chief on June 21, 2011, 02:16:05 pm

You're such a cherrypicker when it suits you. Livo's home ERA at Nats park is 3.27. This year it's 1.97.

I'm arguing with the guy that says we should ignore Fister's major league stats versus his minor league stats.

And you're calling me a cherry picker?

Sharp · « **Reply #108 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:18:01 pm »

We've played so few home games this year that using anyone on the Nats' home ERA is waaay too small a sample, and you know it, Chief

The Chief · « **Reply #109 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:19:15 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 21, 2011, 02:17:48 pm

I'm arguing with the guy that says we should ignore Fister's major league stats versus his minor league stats.

And you're calling me a cherry picker?

I expect better from you.

The Chief · « **Reply #110 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:19:51 pm »

Quote from: Sharp on June 21, 2011, 02:18:01 pm

We've played so few home games this year that using anyone on the Nats' home ERA is waaay too small a sample, and you know it, Chief

You're so close to getting the point! Like this >< far, just scoot to the left a little

sruiz59 · « **Reply #111 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:21:18 pm »

So LintyFresh,

Who do you think is the more talented team tonight?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #112 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:23:20 pm »

Quote from: sruiz59 on June 21, 2011, 02:21:18 pm

So LintyFresh,

Who do you think is the more talented team tonight?

I haven't seen the Mariners enough to comment.

I do know that I'd love to have Hernandez, Pineda, Bedard, Smoak, Ackley and Ichiro on the Nats, though.

Sharp · « **Reply #113 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:24:43 pm »

I guarantee you that the Mariners would love to have both Zimms, Espinosa, Ramos, and probably Morse back, too. We should join forces.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #114 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:25:37 pm »

Quote from: Sharp on June 21, 2011, 02:24:43 pm

I guarantee you that the Mariners would love to have both Zimms, Espinosa, Ramos, and probably Morse back, too. We should join forces.

Would make a formidable team.

C: Ramos/Olivo
1B: Smoak
2B: Ackley
3B: Zimmerman
SS: Espinosa
LF: Morse
CF: Ichiro
RF: Werth
UTI: Desmond

SP: Hernandez
SP: Pineda
SP: Zimmermann
SP: Bedard
SP: Marquis/Fister/Vargas

CL: Storen
SU: Clippard
SU: League

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #115 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:26:38 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 21, 2011, 02:12:28 pm

Livo's career home ERA is 4.13 with a WHIP of 1.37

You don't see me posting that the Nats are screwed and the M's "SHOULD" win the game.

Why do the same for Fister?

The better team should win. The Nats lineup is probably better than the M's lineup, especially now that we have Zim back. Even if you consider Fister to be Livo's equal as a pitcher, I'd say that the Nats are fielding a better team tonight and 'should' win.

sruiz59 · « **Reply #116 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:28:43 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 21, 2011, 02:23:20 pm

I haven't seen the Mariners enough to comment.

I do know that I'd love to have Hernandez, Pineda, Bedard, Smoak, Ackley and Ichiro on the Nats, though.

I said TONIGHT. Hernandez, Bedard, and Pineda will not be on the field tonight. And Ichiro has been bad this year, by the way. And Morse is a better player than Smoak at this point and Espy and Ackley are a wash. So I dn't see why this isn't a game the Nats SHOULD win.

Sharp · « **Reply #117 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:29:15 pm »

1. Ichiro (RF)
2. Ackley (2B)
3. Zimmerman (3B)
4. Morse (LF)
5. Smoak (1B)
6. Espinosa (SS)
7. Ramos (C)
8. Pitcher (duh, the Marinals would be an NL team)
9. Warm Body (CF)

Rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Michael Pineda
3. Erick Bedard
4. Jordan Zimmermann
5. Warm Body

Bullpen:
Storen (CL)
Clippard (RP)
League (RP)
Warm Bodies (RP)

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #118 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:29:37 pm »

Quote from: sruiz59 on June 21, 2011, 02:28:43 pm

I said TONIGHT. Hernandez, Bedard, and Pineda will not be on the field tonight. And Ichiro has been bad this year, by the way. And Morse is a better player than Smoak at this point and Espy and Ackley are a wash. So I dn't see why this isn't a game the Nats SHOULD win.

Espinosa is a better player than Ackley.

sruiz59 · « **Reply #119 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:31:43 pm »

I wouldn't mind seeing Franklin Gutierrez in a Nats uniform. The Nats have had what, 3 months of decent CF play (Nyjer's first year) in their time in Washington?

sruiz59 · « **Reply #120 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:33:29 pm »

Quote from: Sharp on June 21, 2011, 02:29:15 pm

1. Ichiro (RF)
2. Ackley (2B)
3. Zimmerman (3B)
4. Morse (LF)
5. Smoak (1B)
6. Espinosa (SS)
7. Ramos (C)
8. Pitcher (duh, the Marinals would be an NL team)
9. Warm Body (CF)

Rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Michael Pineda
3. Erick Bedard
4. Jordan Zimmermann
5. Warm Body

Bullpen:
Storen (CL)
Clippard (RP)
League (RP)
Warm Bodies (RP)

Is it bad that the player who makes the most money between the two teams didn't make the roster?

Sharp · « **Reply #121 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:34:52 pm »

Quote from: sruiz59 on June 21, 2011, 02:33:29 pm

Is it bad that the player who makes the most money between the two teams didn't make the roster?

I guess we could put Ichiro in CF and add Werth at RF if we really wanted... but the Marinals wouldn't have needed to make that deal in the first place because between their Yankees-lite lineup and their Phillies-lite rotation free agents would be jumping aboard the bandwagon faster than you can say "3D movies."

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #122 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:34:58 pm »

Is 'warm body' Werth's new nickname?

sruiz59 · « **Reply #123 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:38:42 pm »

And that's only a $100 million dollar roster. The Marinals could still sign CJ Wilson and Prince in the off-season. 1927 Yankees look out for the 2012 Marinals--add Strasburg and Harper to the mix.

Sharp · « **Reply #124 on:** June 21, 2011, 02:42:24 pm »

Man... I started listing this lineup as a joke but I suddenly really want to make it happen. Let the Lerners buy out the M's, Selig! Conflict of interest, schmonflict of schminterest.