Author Topic: Follow the Prospects Master Thread  (Read 151996 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #600 on: December 16, 2025, 11:27:09 am »
top 30 updated. 

Additions:
- Harry Ford #2
- Luis Perales #5
- Orvelis Martinez #20
- Griff McGarry #30

Subtractions:
- Jake Bennett (was 10)
- Josh Randall (was 27)
- Tyler Stuart (was 28)
- Sir Jamison Jones (29)

Offline blue911

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #601 on: December 16, 2025, 02:01:26 pm »
top 30 updated. 

Additions:
- Harry Ford #2
- Luis Perales #5
- Orvelis Martinez #20
- Griff McGarry #30

Subtractions:
- Jake Bennett (was 10)
- Josh Randall (was 27)
- Tyler Stuart (was 28)
- Sir Jamison Jones (29)

Bad year for royalty.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #602 on: December 16, 2025, 02:29:46 pm »
Bad year for royalty.
Stuart dynasty was short-lived.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #603 on: December 16, 2025, 02:31:01 pm »
top 30 updated. 

Additions:
- Harry Ford #2
- Luis Perales #5
- Orvelis Martinez #20
- Griff McGarry #30

Subtractions:
- Jake Bennett (was 10)
- Josh Randall (was 27)
- Tyler Stuart (was 28)
- Sir Jamison Jones (29)
who was the old #30?  Looks like he jumped 27-29.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #604 on: December 16, 2025, 02:39:59 pm »
I think it was Pickney.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #605 on: December 26, 2025, 02:47:12 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-do-prospect-grades-translate-to-future-outcomes/

Idk the best place to putting article - maybe useful minor league links, maybe org ranks, dunno - but Ben Clemens really advances the ball in his look at how future value rankings translate into mlb projections 3 years down the line. His focus on projections is explained and seems reasonable. Bottom line to me seems to be that I would not go overboard on any prospects acquired that rank below a 50, and its really only the 55s on up that have a good likelihood of being average or better as hitters. As for pitchers, there's just fewer high ranked, and fewer that take prominent roles. The comments note that Gore just being a regular and not above average or a star is in a category by himself over the 70s from 2018-22 or so.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #606 on: January 07, 2026, 06:35:58 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-do-prospect-grades-translate-to-future-outcomes/

Idk the best place to putting article - maybe useful minor league links, maybe org ranks, dunno - but Ben Clemens really advances the ball in his look at how future value rankings translate into mlb projections 3 years down the line. His focus on projections is explained and seems reasonable. Bottom line to me seems to be that I would not go overboard on any prospects acquired that rank below a 50, and its really only the 55s on up that have a good likelihood of being average or better as hitters. As for pitchers, there's just fewer high ranked, and fewer that take prominent roles. The comments note that Gore just being a regular and not above average or a star is in a category by himself over the 70s from 2018-22 or so.

It's a good article.  While I could quibble with some of their methodology (for example, this is a time series data set and they do often change their FV s on prospects, and using your own projections as the measuring stick rather than actual results is self-inflicted intercorrelation), it's good to see that this seems to match real-world expectations fairly well.

It's also good to see the failure points are often guys who seemed really, really overhyped - such as Gore, when people were pretending that every Padres prospect was going to the Hall of Fame, and Jeter Downs, who would have been permanently obscure if his name had been Jose Downs.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #607 on: January 22, 2026, 10:12:40 pm »
milb.com has already seeded the new arrivals into our top-30:
- Fien #5
- Rosario #11
- Fitz-Gerald #12
- Cabrera #17
- Ortiz #24

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #608 on: March 02, 2026, 11:55:46 am »
Post #1 is updated based on the latest changes to the mlb pipeline top-30:
- Ford & Sykora switch places
- King jumps from 10 to 7
- Fitz-Gerald from 12 to 9
- Clemmey from 8 to 11
- Yoel Tejada Jr from 27 to 13
- Jackson Kent from 24 to 14
- Lomavita from 15 to 28
- Pickney from 30 to 19
- German from 29 to 21
- Orelvis "The King" Martinez leaves the top-30
- Peterson from 28 to 22
- Nauris De La Cruz enters at 30

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #609 on: March 20, 2026, 11:00:42 am »
May want to add Davian Garcia. 2024 6th rounder who got above slot and advanced to Wilmington last year. Started the breakout game. Throws hard. They seem to like him.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/davian-garcia/sa3031927/stats/pitching

Longhagen had him as a depth arm in his 7/25 review  of the Nats prospects:
Quote
Garcia was the Nats’ 2024 sixth rounder out of Florida Gulf Coast, an undersized righty with a short stride and a high slot that produces a trick pitch splitter. He could eventually be a slider-heavy long reliever.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-39-prospects/

Camerato in her breakout game article:
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/gavin-fien-five-rbis-nationals-2026-spring-breakout?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Quote
Garcia's fastest pitch of the day -- a 98.4 mph four-seamer -- caught Cardinals' No. 6 prospect Leo Bernal swinging for the punchout.

“He's throwing harder, his slider keeps improving, he's throwing strikes,” said assistant general manager Devin Pearson. “He's taken off. Hopefully, he can carry it throughout the spring.”

Last season, Garcia advanced from Single-A Fredericksburg to High-A Wilmington, going a combined 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 20 starts and two appearances out of the bullpen. Garcia grew up in Tampa and played college baseball at Florida Gulf Coast University, making the Spring Breakout a driveable event.

As for the 2025 numbers, Wilmington was a lot worse than Fredericksburg, so the combined number is deceptive. 

The article notes he was very nervous at the start of yesterday, with a BB, single,HBP start, but he K'd the next 2 guys and got out of the inning without a run.



Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #610 on: March 24, 2026, 07:32:27 pm »
With Linan off the top 30 (he was #27), Samil Serrano slides in at #30.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #611 on: March 25, 2026, 12:28:20 pm »
I suppose Hassell's thread should be reopened with post prospect status as well?

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #612 on: March 25, 2026, 01:29:23 pm »
I suppose Hassell's thread should be reopened with post prospect status as well?
done, thanks for the ping

Offline welch

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #613 on: April 01, 2026, 05:13:13 pm »
The Toboni administration seems to be clearing out the no-hopers, like Armando Cruz, from the previous management.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #614 on: May 02, 2026, 11:00:25 pm »
Isaac Lyon, also acquired in the Ferrer trade, has been pretty good so far:

https://www.milb.com/player/isaac-lyon-805214

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #615 on: May 12, 2026, 03:36:16 pm »
WaPo's Danielle Allentuck speaks with assistant GM Devin Pearsson and checks in on numerous minor leaguers during  the Nats off day. Crews, Willits, Cruz, Ford, Franklin, Hassell, Perales, Susana.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/05/12/dylan-crews-nationals-prospects/

Crews:
Quote
They still want him to work on swing decisions and ball flight; defensively, he needs to be prepared to play all three outfield positions.
...
After a slow start, Crews has shown progress in nearly every category. He’s hitting the ball harder. His hard-hit percentage is 50 percent, the highest of his professional career, and his exit velocity is up a few decimal points. His strikeout percentage is still high, sitting at 26.3, but his walk percentage is up, it’s at 10.9, also the highest of his career.
Pearson praises Crews's focus.

Peason praises Willits's maturity. For Cruz, not insight, just that he's continuing to do well as he did in the spring.

Ford: Job is  his when he turns  things around.
Quote
There’s a spot on the major league team waiting for him when he’s ready, but he’s 19 for 99 with only four extra base hits. Defensively, he’s worked on receiving with Nationals’ catching coach Bobby Wilson and Jake Lowery, the Nationals catching and game play coordinator.
He's doing what is asked.

Franklin?
Quote
He was one of the last players left in camp, and the Nationals have told him to dominate AAA to the point where they have no option but to call him up. He’s hitting .268 with a .404 on-base percentage. They also, Pearson said, want him to be confident at all three outfield positions.

Hassell is praised for his defense but  they want more  on offense, specifically improving his batted  ball profile and get inner half of the strike zone pitches in the air.

Perales needs to work on maintaining his 100 MPH stuff deeper into games by "developing routines." Susana has started throwing in West Palm.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #616 on: May 13, 2026, 03:16:37 pm »
Via @natsofthefuture
Quote
19 year old Browm Martinez with his 2nd homer in first 10 FCL ABs.

Was the other piece alongside Clayton Beeter acquired from NYY for Amed Rosario last year. Another player like Ronny Cruz we had yet to see much of

Posted a 1.139 OPS in DSL last year. Name to keep an eye on

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #617 on: May 14, 2026, 11:09:14 pm »
Isaac Lyon continuing to pitch well, i'll set up a FTP

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #618 on: May 22, 2026, 05:50:03 am »
Elian Soto promoted to Fredericksburg

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #619 on: May 31, 2026, 09:02:53 am »
I'm going to have to take a break from the monthly prospects stats updates. Life is just too hectic right now between work and little ones at home.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #620 on: May 31, 2026, 11:58:32 am »
I'm going to have to take a break from the monthly prospects stats updates. Life is just too hectic right now between work and little ones at home.

Completely understand. Thanks for all that you have done.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #621 on: June 10, 2026, 09:29:28 am »
Nats seem to have fixed 26 year old Royals cast-off Chandler "Lake" Champlain: https://www.milb.com/player/chandler-champlain-669441

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #622 on: June 13, 2026, 10:18:23 am »
Elian Soto promoted to Fredericksburg.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #623 on: June 14, 2026, 12:02:15 pm »
Elian Soto has a .853 OPS since being promoted to Fredricksburg. Anyone want to start a FTP for Juan's kid brother?

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects Master Thread
« Reply #624 on: July 09, 2026, 10:40:26 am »
MLB pipeline updated their Nats top 30. Here are the major changes:
- Ford falls from 3 to 7
- Ronny Cruz jumps from 25 to 4 (or 6?)
- Fien drops from 5 to 8
- Fitz-Gerald jump from 9 to 5 (what a way to make a living)