https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-do-prospect-grades-translate-to-future-outcomes/
Idk the best place to putting article - maybe useful minor league links, maybe org ranks, dunno - but Ben Clemens really advances the ball in his look at how future value rankings translate into mlb projections 3 years down the line. His focus on projections is explained and seems reasonable. Bottom line to me seems to be that I would not go overboard on any prospects acquired that rank below a 50, and its really only the 55s on up that have a good likelihood of being average or better as hitters. As for pitchers, there's just fewer high ranked, and fewer that take prominent roles. The comments note that Gore just being a regular and not above average or a star is in a category by himself over the 70s from 2018-22 or so.
It's a good article. While I could quibble with some of their methodology (for example, this is a time series data set and they do often change their FV s on prospects, and using your own projections as the measuring stick rather than actual results is self-inflicted intercorrelation), it's good to see that this seems to match real-world expectations fairly well.
It's also good to see the failure points are often guys who seemed really, really overhyped - such as Gore, when people were pretending that every Padres prospect was going to the Hall of Fame, and Jeter Downs, who would have been permanently obscure if his name had been Jose Downs.
