Furthermore, even if he hits .190 all year, there's no saying he won't smash the ball next year, and next year is the year that really matters for the Nats.
That said, at this point I really like Morse at 1B and I hope he keeps it up and locks up the job next year.
I agree that there are no definites here and I'm not saying Dunn is already on an irreversible decline. I'm saying that, given the contract he eventually signed witht eh White Sox and the numbers that were being thrown around as possible extension figures, it would not have been worth signing him. Yes, you do give up the possibility of 35+ homeruns every year - but you also don't risk having a $15 mil/year non-hitting DH on the roster.
How much would you have bet on Dunn being the same guy he has been? 3 years and 40 million? 2 years and 35 million? For all we know, Rizzo may have offered that. Or Rizzo may not have been willing to even bet that amount given the 'old guy skills' and risk of severe and precipitous decline. We don't know - we only know that Dunn eventually signed for four years with Chicago.
I also wouldn't exactly relate them to a deer in the headlights. They did manage to sign Strasburg and Harper at the deadline, which some people said they couldn't get done. That does reflect at least some minimal level of competence. They may not have 'outsmarted' anyone, but if they are to be judged on results, they may have made the right call here. Even if they were, as you said, just doing what they were supposed to be doing.
