Law owns Ladson

[imref]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors/_/date/20110104#8118

Bryce Harper, the top overall pick in last June's draft, is certainly on the fast track, by all accounts, and MLB.com's Bill Ladson writes that it's conceivably that the teenager could make the major league roster out of spring training -- this season.

Ladson wrote in a recent Q & A with his readers that "the 18-year old has proven he could play with professionals. He wasn't over matched in the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. He will be in Major League Spring Training and will face big league pitching for the first time. "It wouldn't come as a surprise if Harper played well and made the team out of Spring Training. It can be done. Remember Al Kaline? He made his Major League debut at the age of 18 and went on to have a Hall of Fame career."

Kaline was drafted in 1953 and went straight to the big leagues at age 18, but that was also 58 years ago, and the competition, especially on the mound, and the risk for the Nationals is much, much greater than it was for the Detroit Tigers nearly six decades ago.

While we admit nothing is impossible, the idea that Harper doesn't need a little time to acclimate himself to a relatively new position in right field as well as see -- and handle -- some good, consistent minor league pitching -- is probably far fetched. For more on the idea, we checked with ESPN Insider's in-house talent evaluator, Keith Law, for his take.

Keith Law
Umm, not bloody likely
"That is absolutely laughable. And Harper did struggle in the AFL against offspeed stuff, especially moving away from him. I love the kid, and still see stardom for him, but ... come on."

[Lintyfresh85]

Someone better hope they have a private email.

[shoeshineboy]

Until the AFL, Bryce Harper had never seen a 90+ mph pitch. He is NOT making the team out of ST. The kid could turn water into wine, and Rizzo would still have him in the minors until late 2012. Lerner may make him a vendor at the ballpark, but he isn't sniffing the roster.

[Evolution33]

I think he makes the team out of Spring Training if he bats .500 with a 1.000 OBP and every hit is a homer that blows up a car.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think he makes the team out of Spring Training if he bats .500 with a 1.000 OBP and every hit is a homer that blows up a car.

SSS

[imref]

I still think best case scenario is he comes up as a September call-up, but that would mean he has a great camp, starts the season in Harrisburg, and makes it to Syracuse by say early July. 

[JMaddyNatty]

Until the AFL, Bryce Harper had never seen a 90+ mph pitch. He is NOT making the team out of ST. The kid could turn water into wine, and Rizzo would still have him in the minors until late 2012. Lerner may make him a vendor at the ballpark, but he isn't sniffing the roster.

Lerner would have him on the field immediately. To sell tickets.

[comish4lif]

Until the AFL, Bryce Harper had never seen a 90+ mph pitch. He is NOT making the team out of ST. The kid could turn water into wine, and Rizzo would still have him in the minors until late 2012. Lerner may make him a vendor at the ballpark, but he isn't sniffing the roster.

Um. Really? He played JuCo in a strong conference. He saw plenty of 90 mph heat at CSN. Probably saw some in HS too.

Although, I don't mean that to say that Harper is ready for the show.

[EdStroud]

Until the AFL, Bryce Harper had never seen a 90+ mph pitch. He is NOT making the team out of ST. The kid could turn water into wine, and Rizzo would still have him in the minors until late 2012. Lerner may make him a vendor at the ballpark, but he isn't sniffing the roster.

He's to young to sell beer so I won't see him.

[RD]

Until the AFL, Bryce Harper had never seen a 90+ mph pitch. He is NOT making the team out of ST. The kid could turn water into wine, and Rizzo would still have him in the minors until late 2012. Lerner may make him a vendor at the ballpark, but he isn't sniffing the roster.

While I agree he wont be making the team out of spring training, he has seen quite a few 90+ arms in his day.

For starters, his own brother can hit 90 and was drafted out of high school. Harper saw 90 at an early age.

He's been on the national circuit for years, and has seen plenty more heat. Even in the AFLAC game, I believe guys ran it up to 95.

At CSN, two of his own pitchers, which Im sure he faced quite a bit in the fall, broke 90 with ease.

The heat isn't a problem. He's seen 90 since he was 14.

It's the consistency of the off speed pitches thats the problem.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the bigs come September, but it's not happening out of the gates.

[Coladar]

Prince of Doom FTW.

[Baseball is Life]

He will be a June call up so he has one less year of service. He will tear it up in ST and fly through the minors like Stras did. This kid is a freak.

Remember, you heard it here first.:~)

[houston-nat]

I'm with the June 1, 2012 people.

[shoeshineboy]

The heat isn't a problem. He's seen 90 since he was 14.

It's the consistency of the off speed pitches thats the problem.

Agreed completely that the heat is not the issue. I was basing the comment on some article I had read recently that had pointed out that he hadn't seen pitchers consistently topping 90. But that article was likely incorrect. I remember being a bit surprised by it. But as you say, it isn't about the heat. The point was simply that he hadn't been exposed to elite pitching, and more importantly, Rizzo is very cautious and a big believer in a guy following a certain course even for old-school tradition sake.

This kid is a freak, and will likely experience some challenges adjusting as he faces tougher opposition, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him blow through the minors and seem like he has nothing much else to learn other than getting comfortable. I suspect his games will garner a lot of media attention as well, even if it is not as much of a circus as the Strasburg run. He seems like he has a realistic opportunity to make a big league debut at the age of 19. And there's no doubt the decision will be driven heavily by financial considerations.

But the idea that he would "make the team" out of ST just seems ludicrous. ST stats are meaningless, and given the desire to get the guy acclimated to a certain routine and rise through the ranks in the traditional way Rizzo respects, it seems absurd to suggest otherwise. Spring Training is often mistakenly viewed as being analgous to some junior varsity basketball tryout where people "make the team" based upon how they do. Any success Harper has this spring should only help to add to marketing hype, not be used to evaluate his actual readiness. His ability to dominate AA will tell that story.

[blue911]

^ Adjusting to the grind. He's never played 10 days straight in 4 different cities, while traveling on a bus. He's lived at home where he had real food and not clubhouse fare or KFC. The kid has a lot of growing up ahead of him, like all 18 year olds living away from home for the first time. Let him adjust with as little fanfare as possible.

[shoeshineboy]

^ Adjusting to the grind. He's never played 10 days straight in 4 different cities, while traveling on a bus. He's lived at home where he had real food and not clubhouse fare or KFC. The kid has a lot of growing up ahead of him, like all 18 year olds living away from home for the first time. Let him adjust with as little fanfare as possible.

Yup. He'll still have the fanfare on a somewhat reduced scale. So it will also be more practice dealing with media hype. But he has been dealing with that fairly well for years, and has actually seemed to mature pretty well. One of the best qualities of this kid is his respect for the game and those who came before him. He's such a fan, that even though he is deservedly cocky, he wants to be part of everything that he has admired. So he should relish being around more experienced players he can learn from. He'll probably have a blast living the lifestyle that many of the other minor-leaguers have come to dread.

[Evolution33]

I can report that there is no giant billboard on I-70 outside Hagerstown, or at least I didn't see one over the New Years weekend.

[imref]

^ Adjusting to the grind. He's never played 10 days straight in 4 different cities, while traveling on a bus. He's lived at home where he had real food and not clubhouse fare or KFC. The kid has a lot of growing up ahead of him, like all 18 year olds living away from home for the first time. Let him adjust with as little fanfare as possible.

from what I understand, the summer tournament / traveling team schedules for top prospects can be pretty brutal.  A friend of mine's son played with Harper 2 years ago, they were constantly traveling around the SW during the summer to various tournaments.

[cmdterps44]

He's to young to sell beer so I won't see him.

[blue911]

from what I understand, the summer tournament / traveling team schedules for top prospects can be pretty brutal.  A friend of mine's son played with Harper 2 years ago, they were constantly traveling around the SW during the summer to various tournaments.

I'm sure they are but including spring training we're talking almost 7 months.

[Baseball is Life]

Harper will tear it up in ST and be sent to 2A where he he will fly through the minors and be in the show this June. Sort of like SS did.

Remember, you heard it here first, I think.

[welch]

My best guess is that Harper plays half the season at AA, and half at AAA. Maybe a call-up in September, but major league pitching is a long jump from AA.

Incidentally, as per Ladson:

- Al Kaline was not "drafted" in 1953. He was signed as a bonus baby, just like Harmon Killebrew and Jerry Schoonmaker. The bonus rule said that a team had to keep a player on their major league roster for about three seasons before letting them play in the minors. It was an attempt to keep teams like the Yankees from buying up all the high school talent -- all the Mickey Mantles.

- Of all the young players to pick, Kaline makes Ladson's argument most wobbly. Al Kaline, who was a first-ballot Hall of Famer, hit about .275 in 1954, his first full season. In 1955, he hit .340. If that's the dismal fate Ladson is predicting for Harper, I'll take it.

- Incidentally, pitching in 1953 was probably tougher than today, comparatively. There were only eight teams in each league, and MLB was far and away the leading professional sport. The NFL had a small following, and the NBA was more related to the circus sideshow than to sports. (That's not entirely a joke. The NBA was formed by guys who owned the arenas, who wanted something to show when the circus was not in town.) If you were an athlete, you played baseball.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nice points, Welch.  You do see spikes in offensive stats after most expansions, mostly due to bringing into rotations minor leaguers and bullpen guys who used to be stockpiled.  Going from 4 man rotations, 16 teams to 5 man rotations, 30 teams may outstrip the supply of good arms.  Of course, night games, additional travel, more integration of African Americans into the majors, internationalizing the player pool, and great specialization all would make it tougher on hitters. But you are also correct to say that the best athletes gravitated to baseball more back then, so your basic point about pitching can be argued.

While Kaline might have been the last position player to go from high school to the majors without minor league time and to stick, there have been some college guys to do it, too.  I think the last one may have been John Olerud, who just walked off the college diamond and into the line up for some very good Blue Jay teams. 

[blue911]

^ I can't think of another. Jim Abbott did it also which is downright amazing. Abbott has a higher batting average than Jason Bergmann.