ESPN: The confusing plan of the Nationals

[Tyler Durden]

Nats should follow the model... except, in the end, re-sign the top talent before it can hit FA.

That's my point.  They can't.  No team that has no established fan base can because a fan base will never be built if the starts off by losing 100 games a year for 10 years, as this guy is advocating.

[Baseball is Life]

Alright... lets be fair, then... what does a 2012 Nationals lineup look like?

C - Ramos/Norris/Flores ?
1B - ?
2B - Espinosa/Lombardozzi
3B - Zimmerman
SS - Desmond/Espinosa
LF - Bernadina/Morse/Werth
CF - Morgan/Brown/Werth
RF - Werth/Harper/?

To me... it really doesn't look much different than 2011... and it doesn't look that good.

Unless the Nats plan a spending spree next offseason, or work quite a few trades... I'm not seeing an offense that will be ready for prime time in 2012.

Hell, we don't even know what 2011 will look like!

But, sure, I'll play:

C - Ramos
1B - Laroche/Lee or TBD
2B - Espinosa
3B - Zimmerman
SS - Desmond
LF - Werth
CF - Bernadina or TBD
RF - Harper

I love Morse but I can't project him as a full time starter anywhere right now.

[Evolution33]

I have always had a bit of a problem with the philosophy of teams building from within. Was it more luck or decision making that got the Capitals Ovechkin, the Rays Price and Longoria, the Cavaliars Lebron, the Colts and Peyton Manning, and the Giants Lincecum. Those teams were bad enough in those years to snag top talent that ended up helping to turn around the franchise. Look at how many teams have sucked and sucked and waited to hit the jackpot with a draft pick or prospect only to see that savior fail. I would say there are more stories of failure out there than there are success'. 

[imref]

Scary as hell indeed. What is this team trying to do?

I still think they are playing for 2012.  If they had gotten Greinke, and assuming Harper/Strasburg are on the opening day roster, they would have been in good shape goiing into 2012 with a staff front-ended by Strasburg-Greinke-Zimmermann and a line-up featuring Harper, Werth, Zimmerman and Lee/LaRoche at 1B.  Neither Willingham nor Dunn fit the 2012 team that Rizzo is trying to build.

[imref]

I have always had a bit of a problem with the philosophy of teams building from within. Was it more luck or decision making that got the Capitals Ovechkin, the Rays Price and Longoria, the Cavaliars Lebron, the Colts and Peyton Manning, and the Giants Lincecum. Those teams were bad enough in those years to snag top talent that ended up helping to turn around the franchise. Look at how many teams have sucked and sucked and waited to hit the jackpot with a draft pick or prospect only to see that savior fail. I would say there are more stories of failure out there than there are success'. 

IMHO the teams that win year after year are those who develop a solid core of home-grown players.  We're still missing that core, but we're getting closer.

[Minty Fresh]

This article is stupid.

Chief's.  Best.  Post.  Ever.

[ZIM4MVP]

Anyone know of big name FA's in 2012?

[Evolution33]

IMHO the teams that win year after year are those who develop a solid core of home-grown players.  We're still missing that core, but we're getting closer.

My analogy for winning teams is they need a Jordan, a Pippen, a Rodman/Grant, and then a revolving door of roll players. I think Zimmerman, Harper, Werth can be Jordan, Pippen, and Grant. Let's get optimistic here for a minute and use Heyward as a comp for Harper's first year that is a 5.0 WAR, I say we can probably expect Zimmerman to still be in his prime in 2012 and I will predict a 6.0 WAR, and Werth we will just say a 4.0 now let's figure every other position is average so from position players that is 25.00 WAR. Now as for pitching. Strasburg was on pace for 7.0 WAR last season so let's figure he isn't that good in 2012 and say 5.0 WAR, let's figure Jordan Zimmermann looks decent and is worth 3.5 WAR, and the rest of the rotations is average and that is 14.5 from the starters. Figure in about 3.0 WAR from the bullpen and 1.5 WAR from the bench and the team is at 44 WAR. A replacement team should win around 48 games so 44+48=92. 

[DPMOmaha]

Anyone know of big name FA's in 2012?

There's potential you could have Pujols and Fielder on market.  It's also possible one or both of Carpenter and Wainwright will be too.  Oswalt could extend in Philly, retire or hit FA. 

Others are: Jose Bautista, Jimmy Rollins (the first of the Philly guys), Buehrle, Heath Bell, Wandy Rodriguez, Papelbon.

And... Josh Willingham.

[EdStroud]

I did not know ESPN covered baseball anymore.  ESPN motto- We're bigger than sports!!!

[blue911]

Who is Matt Meyers? He isn't on any of ESPN's baseball related programs, so they apparently don't hold him in high regard.

[LetsGoNats]

CF unknowable
LF Inknowable
CF morse
RF bernadina/morse platoon hardcard backseat on the Shanahan party bussp during game times
First is a nightmare in FA.
Third Zimmerman
As for as espinosa
2nd or 2
First clueless
catcher Ramos and Zombie Flores. Pudge heeds to take a
5 Zimmermann

Nnot looking like a strong more a strong team makes.

?  Morse in CF?  That might be worse than Milledge trying to play CF.

[JMW IV]

blahblahblah how dare the lowly nationals sign a good player blahblahblah

[houston-nat]

blahblahblah how dare the lowly nationals sign a good player blahblahblah

blahblahblah he should have been a Yankee/Red Sox/Angel other teams don't matter blahblahblah

[hammondsnats]

blahblahblah he should have been a Yankee/Red Sox/Angel other teams don't matter blahblahblah

blahblahblah the nats should never spend on FAs because it's a stupid move, but when Boston does it's a great move blahblahblah

[houston-nat]

blahblahblah Washington is a small market because everyone watches CSPAN, they should trade Ryan Zimmerman for single-A prospects to be Derek Jeter's heir blahblahblah

[EdStroud]

Blah E Blah S Blah P Blah N Blah

 

[spidernat]

Anyone know of big name FA's in 2012?

Stephen Strasburg will be the Nats big "FA acquisition" next offseason.

[hammondsnats]

Stephen Strasburg will be the Nats big "FA acquisition" next offseason.

lol.

nats park was our biggest one to date, before Werth and then Strasburg next season.

[blue911]

blahblahblah how dare the lowly nationals sign a good player blahblahblah

that the Red Sox really.really wanted.


I wonder if Theo finds it hard to sit with all of Bristol,Connecticut kissing his ass 24/7.

[NatsDad14]

Absolutely agree, that was the dumbest part of the article.  There is no comparison between the Werth signing and the Pirates giving a few bucks to Eric Hinske.

The Pirates did trade for Matt Morris and his ridiculous contract to appease fans.

[NatsDad14]

Right, but the comparison is invalid because the Nats haven't made moves to appease fans.  A 7-year, $126 million contract for Werth was not to try to fool anyone.  It was to add a critical piece to a much larger puzzle.

The Werth was partially made to appease fans who were concerned about the Nationals spending level and losing out on Dunn

[Evolution33]

The Werth was partially made to appease fans who were concerned about the Nationals spending level and losing out on Dunn

And you know this how?

[NeedaNewNick]

Excellent article, but he doesn't realize Willingham was a salary dump, even at $5 million per.   

This team is not trying to win now, or ever for that matter.   The Lerners care less about winning, and more about spinning, than any ownership group.  Phil Wood, Kilgore, and others trade access to players and/or a paycheck for regurgitating a lot of company taking points.

In most other markets, there would be a fan rebellion.   But here, we have a bunch of golf clapping attorneys and a fanbase than has amazingly bought into Snyder's hype for more than a decade.    But the Lerners are even worse, because at least Snyder's trying to win. 

[NeedaNewNick]

Look at how many teams have sucked and sucked and waited to hit the jackpot with a draft pick or prospect only to see that savior fail.. 

Agree.  There's a different between a bad team, and a badly run franchise.   The Nats are the latter.

Interesting you mention Lincecum.  He was a #10 pick (the year the Nats took Marrero at 15), and was passed over by a number of teams because of his stature and wind up.   The Royals, a franchise nearly, but not quite as dysfunctional as the Nats, went for the overhyped Luke Hochevar at #1.