Author Topic: Fire Rizzo  (Read 207056 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3825: March 14, 2019, 02:16:15 PM »
Why do you judge drafting off who you trade away?  How about the position players we've drafted/signed as international free agents that we've kept?  Zimmerman going back before Rizzo's time.  Harper I guess was a no-brainer.  Rendon was a great pick.  Soto was obviously an amazing scout.  Robles looks to be the same.  MAT is a contributor.  Kieboom and Garcia are coming. 

As for Souza...he got us Trea Turner!  And Joe Ross as a bonus.

Because up the thread:

Mike Rizzo has led ten drafts as the #Nats GM, 36 of his draft picks have made the majors, only the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox were worse over that time.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=
our internal development system is not good. we have traded a lot of prospects for established talent yes but even those guys usually flame out. our ability to develop pitching has to be the worst among decent teams

So I went back and did a memory check on drafted position players who were traded.  After Rendon and Harper, I think the only position player drafted who became a contributor here is Taylor.  You go from Taylor to C Kieboom, more or less.  That's a position player drought, no?  As you say, RZ was before Rizzo got here and Turner is what  we got for Souza.

No question that the saving grace on position players has been DiPuglia and the Dominican signings. Soto, Difo, Robles, Sanchez, plus depth like Read.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3826: March 14, 2019, 02:18:08 PM »
Our entire roster foundation is trades and free agency. Just because we've discovered some studs doesn't mean our system is good or anything.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3827: March 14, 2019, 02:33:13 PM »
Because up the thread:

So I went back and did a memory check on drafted position players who were traded.  After Rendon and Harper, I think the only position player drafted who became a contributor here is Taylor.  You go from Taylor to C Kieboom, more or less.  That's a position player drought, no?  RZ was before Rizzo got here.  Turner is what  we got for Souza.

No question that the saving grace on position players has been DiPuglia and the Dominican signings. Soto, Difo, Robles, Sanchez, plus depth like Read.

Making the majors is a very poor measure of draft success.  If your big league roster is bad, then you can shuffle a ton of AAAA types on and off your roster that you drafted.  That doesn't indicate success.  High-end starters does, because that is what is hard to acquire elsewhere.  You can always acquire guys to fill out the edges of your roster.  Rizzo has drafted cornerstones of the roster as I listed. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3828: March 14, 2019, 02:37:20 PM »
Our entire roster foundation is trades and free agency. Just because we've discovered some studs doesn't mean our system is good or anything.
well, if you say the system rather than drafting, then you have to throw in the good Dominican program.  Even the Riveros and Lopezes were key trade chits.  If you don't take credit for Turner's development (which I think accelerated here), then 4 position playing starters are internal.  Just 1 rotation piece and 2 or 3 relievers (Grace, Suero, maybe Glover). Eaton and Turner and Gomes were all acquired for internally developed pieces we moved.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3829: March 14, 2019, 02:40:45 PM »
well, if you say the system rather than drafting, then you have to throw in the good Dominican program.  Even the Riveros and Lopezes were key trade chits.  If you don't take credit for Turner's development (which I think accelerated here), then 4 position playing starters are internal.  Just 1 rotation piece and 2 or 3 relievers (Grace, Suero, maybe Glover). Eaton and Turner and Gomes were all acquired for internally developed pieces we moved.

definitely just mean drafting, sorry. our international scouting is excellent. drafting is bad. player development is hit or miss. i don't know the last draftee that we had that overperformed their draft selection.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3830: March 14, 2019, 02:40:57 PM »
well, if you say the system rather than drafting, then you have to throw in the good Dominican program.  Even the Riveros and Lopezes were key trade chits.  If you don't take credit for Turner's development (which I think accelerated here), then 4 position playing starters are internal.  Just 1 rotation piece and 2 or 3 relievers (Grace, Suero, maybe Glover). Eaton and Turner and Gomes were all acquired for internally developed pieces we moved.

If you want to talk about Rizzo’s scouting ability, then how much are you talking about the Dominican players- how much of a role did he actually have in scouting and signing those guys?

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3831: March 14, 2019, 02:44:23 PM »
If you want to talk about Rizzo’s scouting ability, then how much are you talking about the Dominican players- how much of a role did he actually have in scouting and signing those guys?

i don't even give Rizzo blame or credit for drafting, considering that's 99% the scouting director's call. i just think rizzo should hire better people.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3832: March 14, 2019, 03:16:17 PM »
Our entire roster foundation is trades and free agency. Just because we've discovered some studs doesn't mean our system is good or anything.

We drafted our starting 1B, our future 2B, traded a guy we drafted for our starting SS, drafted our 3B, signed internationally our starting LF and CF, traded 3 players we drafted for our starting RF, drafted our 4th OF...but yea, we did have to go get Catchers and a stop-gap 2B.  Our positional players are basically all via draft/international signings.  As for the rotation, yea Stras is the only 1. 

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3833: March 14, 2019, 03:27:32 PM »
We drafted our starting 1B,

in 2005, pre-rizzo, not part of this discussion. entirely different staff.

our future 2B,

guy hasn't play a single major league minute. irrelevant.

traded a guy we drafted for our starting SS

yeah, that was a good move. i said we used trades.

drafted our 3B

slam dunk 6th overall pick who slipped because of injury issues but was just about MLB ready as a college bat

signed internationally our starting LF and CF,

i said it above but just talking about drafting. also robles hasn't proven anything yet.

traded 3 players we drafted for our starting RF,

he's a great trade guy for sure, i said we use trades and free agency. giolito looked like a bust when we dealt him.

drafted our 4th OF...

BFD

but yea, we did have to go get Catchers and a stop-gap 2B.  Our positional players are basically all via draft/international signings.  As for the rotation, yea Stras is the only 1. 

Our rotation is 4/5 non-home grown pitchers, our bullpen is outside guys, our last internal catcher was...jesus flores? derek norris?

2B, 4/5 starters, the entire back-end of the bullpen, C, LF (Eaton), SS and platoon 1B are all trades or free agency. rizzo is great at making moves but every offseason we're scrambling.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3834: March 14, 2019, 03:34:23 PM »
Can you be a slam dunk, no doubt draft pick at #6?

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3835: March 14, 2019, 03:36:56 PM »
Can you be a slam dunk, no doubt draft pick at #6?

About half of the #1 overall picks flop.

Jesus Flores was a rule 5 pick up, I believe by Bowden.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3836: March 14, 2019, 03:37:17 PM »
Can you be a slam dunk, no doubt draft pick at #6?

he was high injury risk, but low skill risk. With out the injury, he would have been number 1 overall. That's more rolling the dice that scouting

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3837: March 14, 2019, 04:05:50 PM »
About half of the #1 overall picks flop.

Jesus Flores was a rule 5 pick up, I believe by Bowden.

Yea, look at the top 5 or so picks in the draft history from the past decade...lot of guys you'd never even heard of

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/draft/draft.jsp#season=2011&player_name=&draft_type=JR&draft_team=&draft_round=&page=1&sort_order=&sorted_by=

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3838: March 14, 2019, 04:09:43 PM »
Our rotation is 4/5 non-home grown pitchers, our bullpen is outside guys, our last internal catcher was...jesus flores? derek norris?

2B, 4/5 starters, the entire back-end of the bullpen, C, LF (Eaton), SS and platoon 1B are all trades or free agency. rizzo is great at making moves but every offseason we're scrambling.

How many contending teams do you think have more home-grown results on their roster?  We have TWO position players out of 8 that we had to go elsewhere for.  Eaton is a direct result of our drafts as is Turner.  As is Doo since we traded Jesus for him that we drafted.  Drafts are successful if you accumulate prospects to deal for other needs on your roster. 

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3839: March 14, 2019, 04:15:33 PM »
I'd also note that we've traded away drafdt picks Pivetta and Jesus Luzardo, both of whom are primed to become very good pitchers.  Pivetta really looked like he was last year, he just had a terrible defense and terrible BABIP and strand luck.  He can be a mid-rotation guy for sure.  Jesus looks like the Ace in Oakland already.  Reynaldo Lopez still has some potential as a serviceable back-end rotation guy.  Giolitto I think was and is a bust.  So if we hadn't gone all in for reliever help, we could have Pivetta and Jesus rounding out the rotation instead of Sanchez and Hellickson.  Then we'd have 3/5 our rotation as home grown and 2 mega free agents. 

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3840: March 14, 2019, 04:27:28 PM »
We're in Win-Now mode and we fill our holes with trades and free agency. We've done a nice job collecting guys good enough to trade. I'm not debating that and obviously our ace is a free agent guy, our #3-5 are free agents, our closer was a free agent, our SS was a trade, our LF was a trade...the best thing Rizzo has done has been to use prospects for guys with team control.

I just don't think our domestic scouting team is that good, especially considering that's Rizzo's background. The Cardinals reload with internal guys very year. The Yankees are currently doing it. The Red Sox do it. Trades, free agency & being able to have internal guys fill important roles. Soto was a huge stroke of luck last year. Our international guys are excellent.

Also Luzardo has as much major league time as "future 2B Carter Kieboom" so maybe let's pump the brakes on including him with established MLB guys like Pivetta. We can all agree trading for Papelbon was dumb.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3841: March 14, 2019, 04:35:14 PM »
We're in Win-Now mode and we fill our holes with trades and free agency. We've done a nice job collecting guys good enough to trade. I'm not debating that.

I just don't think our domestic scouting team is that good, especially considering that's Rizzo's background. The Cardinals reload with internal guys very year. The Yankees are currently doing it. The Red Sox do it. Trades, free agency & being able to have internal guys fill important roles. Soto was a huge stroke of luck last year. Our international guys are excellent.

Also Luzardo has as much major league time as "future 2B Carter Kieboom" so maybe let's pump the brakes on including him with established MLB guys like Pivetta. We can all agree trading for Papelbon was dumb.

Why was Soto "luck?"  Of course you can't EXPECT any teenager to be that good, but why is identifying his talents luck?  You seem to be hell-bent on just downplaying anybody we draft/sign as luck or "can't miss."  There are all kinds of misses internationally and in early MLB draft picks each year. 

Offline dracnal

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3842: March 14, 2019, 04:36:08 PM »
Honestly, how many teams are better with say, the Dominican pipeline? Between Robles and Soto and how they have been treated by the org, I think we'll attract more than our share of them and our scouting seems to be on point there. There are worse things to be good at.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3843: March 14, 2019, 04:38:29 PM »
Why was Soto "luck?"  Of course you can't EXPECT any teenager to be that good, but why is identifying his talents luck?  You seem to be hell-bent on just downplaying anybody we draft/sign as luck or "can't miss."  There are all kinds of misses internationally and in early MLB draft picks each year. 

Dude i have literally said multiple times in this thread alone our international scouting staff is excellent. Why are you yelling at me. What was lucky was that 19-year-old Juan Soto was not only MLB ready but a superstar immediately when we needed him to be. No one prepares for that or expects it.

What makes our international team so impressive to me is we've never really spent huge dollar amounts on the top guys. Robles, Soto - they weren't hugely hyped at 16.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3844: March 14, 2019, 04:43:37 PM »
Dude i have literally said multiple times in this thread alone our international scouting staff is excellent. Why are you yelling at me. What was lucky was that 19-year-old Juan Soto was not only MLB ready but a superstar immediately when we needed him to be. No one prepares for that or expects it.

What makes our international team so impressive to me is we've never really spent huge dollar amounts on the top guys. Robles, Soto - they weren't hugely hyped at 16.

Dude, where are you getting yelling?  You yourself called Soto "lucky."  Also said Rendon was "can't miss" at #6 despite multiple players going higher and in that range in each that end up total busts.  Domestically we drafted Souza which became Turner and Joe Ross.  We drafted Giolitto/Dunning and signed Lopez which became Eaton.  We drafted Jesus which became Doo (and Madson for 2 years).  We drafted Pivetta which became our closer that didn't work out.  Going back to Gio, we acquired him trading players we drafted. 

Offline dracnal

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3845: March 14, 2019, 04:45:07 PM »
Dude, where are you getting yelling?  You yourself called Soto "lucky."  Also said Rendon was "can't miss" at #6 despite multiple players going higher and in that range in each that end up total busts.  Domestically we drafted Souza which became Turner and Joe Ross.  We drafted Giolitto/Dunning and signed Lopez which became Eaton.  We drafted Jesus which became Doo (and Madson for 2 years).  We drafted Pivetta which became our closer that didn't work out.  Going back to Gio, we acquired him trading players we drafted.

To be fair, Rendon's talent wasn't in question. It was whether or not he was too much of an injury risk/would he recover. If he didn't have that injury risk, he would have been taken sooner, without a doubt. He was basically tagged, 'Can't miss, if healthy.' Sounds like a dumb caveat, but it was a risk five other teams wouldn't take.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3846: March 14, 2019, 04:47:43 PM »
Dude, where are you getting yelling?  You yourself called Soto "lucky."  Also said Rendon was "can't miss" at #6 despite multiple players going higher and in that range in each that end up total busts.  Domestically we drafted Souza which became Turner and Joe Ross.  We drafted Giolitto/Dunning and signed Lopez which became Eaton.  We drafted Jesus which became Doo (and Madson for 2 years).  We drafted Pivetta which became our closer that didn't work out.  Going back to Gio, we acquired him trading players we drafted. 

i said we built our roster foundation on trades and free agency and you're pointing to trades we made for key players. i don't know what to tell you.

Also i already explained soto was a huge stroke of luck last year and why it was lucky that he was ready to go at 19 years old, so go back and read that rather than freaking out.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3847: March 14, 2019, 04:48:03 PM »
We have ourselves in excellent position with our position players moving forward, especially if we extend Rendon.  Finding a 1B isn't hard at all to replace Zim.  We have 2 top prospects that can potentially play 2B.  Turner, Soto, Robles...they're under team control for a long time.  I'm sure down the road we can replace a single cornr OF in Eaton.

The future of the rotation is the biggest question mark right now.  There aren't any "can't miss" pitching prospects on their way.  How much longer can Max keep it up?  Stras is only 30, but is an annual question with his health.  Corbin doesn't have a lengthy track record, so there is some question there.  It's not like those 3 guys are all facing impending doom.  They could each remain good to great several more years.  Or maybe 2 do.  If just 1 does...uh oh.  Finding #4 and #5 starters annually isn't a huge worry.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3848: March 14, 2019, 04:49:08 PM »
i said we built our roster foundation on trades and free agency and you're pointing to trades we made for key players. i don't know what to tell you.

Your criticism was of our ability to draft homegrown talent to comprise our rosters.  If you trade homegrown talent for solid starters...what's the problem?  You clearly had one.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3849: March 14, 2019, 04:54:15 PM »
Your criticism was of our ability to draft homegrown talent to comprise our rosters.  If you trade homegrown talent for solid starters...what's the problem?  You clearly had one.

because the rate at which we're trading guys is faster than our ability to plug in holes cheaply. it was a major issue last year that we had 0 pitchers in our system capable of stepping in as a #5 starter. It's not really sustainable to bank on hitting on all your first-round picks and then using free agency and an international player here or there to carry you to a full roster. we're in win-now mode and the next 5 years look like a Rendon extension, Turner extension and, eventually Soto & (hopefully) Robles getting their due in arbitration. Max, Stras and Corbin are paid a ton. We're going to need to fill in holes cheaply and we really have struggled at that and I'm just not seeing where we plug all our holes. Kieboom looks great, but he's in AA. Who knows. What if Rendon leaves? What if Max falls off a cliff in the next 2 years?

with the way the lerners talk about staying under the luxury tax we can't just keep whiffing on rounds 2-20 or trading every single decent prospect.