Message #2272084

[HalfSmokes]

if a sale takes years to play out, then any potential buyers will accuse the lerners of poisoning the well by refusing to spend any money for multiple years as they look to sell the team. behooves everyone to make it happen. the masn situation will eventually get worked out, the nats are the beneficiaries of any resolution (they don't owe any money) and i bet RSNs continue to merge into conglomerates anyways. now, if the orioles go up for sale, all bets are off.

The nationals broadcast rights may be the most valuable part of the Os franchise

[Natsinpwc]

Ted can buy the team, but MASN can laugh in his face if he asks to broadcast games on monumental. I don’t see him closing a deal without resolution and I don’t see that happening any time soon

Who is MASN? You really mean the BLOS.  They allegedly want to sell their team also. Not a good issue for them to have hanging either.

[imref]

Going out on a limb: the 2022 draft was the best in Nats history.

https://districtondeck.com/2022/11/12/washington-nationals-revisiting-2022-mlb-draft/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/managers-top-front-office-executives-on-expiring-contracts-4.html

Nationals: President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are both only signed through the 2023 season, as the Nationals exercised club options on both men back in July.  Wins and losses aren’t really a factor for the rebuilding Nats, but the ongoing search for a new owner certainly is, though the most recent reports haven’t given any clear timeline on when a sale might be finalized.  As a result, Rizzo and Martinez might each be facing a lame-duck season, with their fates unknown until a new owner is in place.

[Slateman]

Jarrett Seidler from Baseball Prospectus had a Q&A on Twitter and spoke on Nats player development

Q: You’ve spoken at length about how prospect outcomes can be a function of organizational PD infrastructure as much as anything else. Have you factored that into your rankings this year and were there any organizations that surprised you, positive or negative?

A: a bit. It was surprising to me just how bad Washington was at basically everything when I really sat down to look at it

https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1616099350823768066?s=46&t=ghLqx4nHynKXbKZZAq0dEA

Q: how many years & level of investment to bring the Nats PD system to just average? Are there names of hires we can look out for to signal they are starting to get serious about their "looks right at 5pm" approach to their farm?

A: this is addressed in fairly specific detail with a sample team in my Annual essay, but ~5 years assuming their pivot towards it this offseason represents actual progress and not just checking some boxes. Will be hard to ascertain from the outside immediately

https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1616094626145763329?s=46&t=ghLqx4nHynKXbKZZAq0dEA

[HalfSmokes]

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Feels like 2008 all over again.

[HondoKillebrew]

Jarrett Seidler from Baseball Prospectus had a Q&A on Twitter and spoke on Nats player development

Q: You’ve spoken at length about how prospect outcomes can be a function of organizational PD infrastructure as much as anything else. Have you factored that into your rankings this year and were there any organizations that surprised you, positive or negative?

A: a bit. It was surprising to me just how bad Washington was at basically everything when I really sat down to look at it

https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1616099350823768066?s=46&t=ghLqx4nHynKXbKZZAq0dEA

Q: how many years & level of investment to bring the Nats PD system to just average? Are there names of hires we can look out for to signal they are starting to get serious about their "looks right at 5pm" approach to their farm?

A: this is addressed in fairly specific detail with a sample team in my Annual essay, but ~5 years assuming their pivot towards it this offseason represents actual progress and not just checking some boxes. Will be hard to ascertain from the outside immediately

https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1616094626145763329?s=46&t=ghLqx4nHynKXbKZZAq0dEA

That's just depressing. There's absolutely no excuse for allowing things to get this bad.   

[welch]

Why should we, or anyone, trust Jarret Seidler's predictions?

[Natsinpwc]

Why should we, or anyone, trust Jarret Seidler's predictions?

It’s not just a prediction.  He has just confirmed what we already knew at heart. Nats have been terrible at player development.

[HalfSmokes]

Why should we, or anyone, trust Jarret Seidler's predictions?

A quick glance at the roster confirms it

[skippy1999]

Feels like 2008 all over again.

But it’s soooo much worse because we got respectable then good then flipping won it all, it is hard to know after all that we’re the dregs of baseball again

[JCA-CrystalCity]

broke out the Finnegan keep or trade discussion into its own thread because I've got nothing better to do.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40503.0

Also moved the Robles discussion to the Robles thread.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

But it’s soooo much worse because we got respectable then good then flipping won it all, it is hard to know after all that we’re the dregs of baseball again

I'm okay with the whole "being good and winning it all, then becoming the dregs again" part.  Sports are mostly cyclical.  It would be nice to be the Yankees or Cardinals, but most teams just don't have that kind of sustained success.

The darker part of this to me is the fact that there's no light at the end of the tunnel.  The first dark period lasted about 4-5 years, and that felt long enough.  We're currently in year 3 of this new downturn and this team is so far away from being any good.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm okay with the whole "being good and winning it all, then becoming the dregs again" part.  Sports are mostly cyclical.  It would be nice to be the Yankees or Cardinals, but most teams just don't have that kind of sustained success.

The darker part of this to me is the fact that there's no light at the end of the tunnel.  The first dark period lasted about 4-5 years, and that felt long enough.  We're currently in year 3 of this new downturn and this team is so far away from being any good.

Some teams are cyclical, other just stay at the bottom. There is nothing about the way the nats are being run that makes me think they won’t be in the same position as the pirates

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Some teams are cyclical, other just stay at the bottom. There is nothing about the way the nats are being run that makes me think they won’t be in the same position as the pirates

that's one of the things Rizzo talked about today. He was frank. There are teams that perpetually say they are rebuilding but aren't. Of course, part of the sham is he will say they aren't one of those teams, they hate losing, and they are on track in the rebuild. Otoh, there's a realistic chance that F-burg is loaded and they will get some payoff by the end of the year from the Hassells and the Gores,  complemented by some relief arms and Alu, to begin to be respectable in 2024.

[HalfSmokes]

that's one of the things Rizzo talked about today. He was frank. There are teams that perpetually say they are rebuilding but aren't. Of course, part of the sham is he will say they aren't one of those teams, they hate losing, and they are on track in the rebuild. Otoh, there's a realistic chance that F-burg is loaded and they will get some payoff by the end of the year from the Hassells and the Gores,  complemented by some relief arms and Alu, to begin to be respectable in 2024.

So many guys in the lower levels have to hit for 2024 to be realistic. I just don’t see it happening

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So many guys in the lower levels have to hit for 2024 to be realistic. I just don’t see it happening

really farfetched for the Fredericksburg crew to supply much help by then. That said, Hassell, Alu, Brzyc..., Ferrer could be help, surrounding Abrams and Ruiz, plus maybe Meneses and some others. A lot depends on Gore and Cavalli. There's a scenario

[Slateman]

really farfetched for the Fredericksburg crew to supply much help by then. That said, Hassell, Alu, Brzyc..., Ferrer could be help, surrounding Abrams and Ruiz, plus maybe Meneses and some others. A lot depends on Gore and Cavalli. There's a scenario

Hassell could be a legit starter. Alu is a utility IFer. Brzykcy and Ferrer are relievers. Theres still no real power in the lineup and its completely dependanf on Cavalli, Gore, and Gray becoming a top 7 rotation in baseball.

2024 is a pipe dream. Best we can hope for is Rizzo getting canned and ownership lucking into a development/analytics heavy GM as a cost saving measure

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hassell could be a legit starter. Alu is a utility IFer. Brzykcy and Ferrer are relievers. Theres still no real power in the lineup and its completely dependanf on Cavalli, Gore, and Gray becoming a top 7 rotation in baseball.

2024 is a pipe dream. Best we can hope for is Rizzo getting canned and ownership lucking into a development/analytics heavy GM as a cost saving measure

If Alu actually is a bit better and is a regular 3rd baseman, it sounds like they are optimistic / delusional about Garcia and Thomas, and that they mentally think Ruiz, Smith, Garcia, Abrams, possibly Alu, plus Hassell and Thomas gets them close, then you keep on integrating guys like Wood, Green, House, etc... as they develop.

[HalfSmokes]

If Alu actually is a bit better and is a regular 3rd baseman, it sounds like they are optimistic / delusional about Garcia and Thomas, and that they mentally think Ruiz, Smith, Garcia, Abrams, possibly Alu, plus Hassell and Thomas gets them close, then you keep on integrating guys like Wood, Green, House, etc... as they develop.

Even if everyone one of them hits their potential, are the nats better than the dogdgers? Phillies? Braves?

[Five Banners]

Even if everyone one of them hits their potential, are the nats better than the dogdgers? Phillies? Braves?

The whole having to play other major league teams is the issue

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Even if everyone one of them hits their potential, are the nats better than the dogdgers? Phillies? Braves?

not asking for 90th percentile outcomes to get to a middling team that can be augmented.  I  could say 2010-11, but there are other teams right now that contend like that.

[Slateman]

If Alu actually is a bit better and is a regular 3rd baseman, it sounds like they are optimistic / delusional about Garcia and Thomas, and that they mentally think Ruiz, Smith, Garcia, Abrams, possibly Alu, plus Hassell and Thomas gets them close, then you keep on integrating guys like Wood, Green, House, etc... as they develop.

This is all wildly optimisti

Alu is Lombardozi
Garcia has to hit 30 homers or win a batting title to justify his miserable defense.
Ruiz is a slap hitter who will only play about 120 games
Thomas is a light hitting corner OFer
Abrams is Dee Gordon without the PEDs

That gets you, maybe, 68 wins.

Wood has an enormous hole in his swing and was exposed as soon as he went somewhere you could spin a breaking ball

Green's hole is so enormous, he's probably Joey Gallo

House? Who is that? The 18 year old with a debilitating back injury? He's never going to play a full season for the Nats

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Some teams are cyclical, other just stay at the bottom. There is nothing about the way the nats are being run that makes me think they won’t be in the same position as the pirates

Way to completely misunderstand the point and the entire context of how I was saying that.

I meant that as in "sports franchises tend to have cyclical levels of success, so I didn't really expect the Nats to be good forever when the team was regularly making the playoffs," not "sports franchises = cyclical, so the Nats will bounce back any day now."