Author Topic: Fire Rizzo  (Read 213351 times)

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Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4200: June 05, 2019, 11:22:08 AM »
2009 he takes over a 59-102 team.  They improve by 10 wins to 69 wins in 2010.  Another 11 wins to 80 wins in 2011.  Thn to 98 wins in 2012. 

2017 was 97 wins, 2018 was 82 and this year they’ll have to pick up the pace to hit that number

Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4201: June 05, 2019, 11:26:02 AM »
4/7 is .57, 4/10 is .40 after this year it’ll be 4/11

You aren't supposed to hold his first 3 years against him...that wouldn't be fair...

That's why FP always talks about someones last 10 or 20 at bats...counting all the prior failures just isn't fair.

And I learned something today...10 of 30 is 30%.  All these years I thought it was 33.33%...  :shrug:

Where's Mathguy when you need him?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4202: June 05, 2019, 11:32:42 AM »
You aren't supposed to hold his first 3 years against him...that wouldn't be fair...

That's why FP always talks about someones last 10 or 20 at bats...counting all the prior failures just isn't fair.

And I learned something today...10 of 30 is 30%.  All these years I thought it was 33.33%...  :shrug:

Where's Mathguy when you need him?

You're not seriously suggesting that Rizzo should be held accountable for not making the playoffs in 2009 or 2010? I'm not the biggest Rizzo apologist, but come on...

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4203: June 05, 2019, 11:36:19 AM »
You're not seriously suggesting that Rizzo should be held accountable for not making the playoffs in 2009 or 2010? I'm not the biggest Rizzo apologist, but come on...

So give him credit for the peak, but not the troughs that yielded the players that led to the peaks?

Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4204: June 05, 2019, 11:38:09 AM »
You're not seriously suggesting that Rizzo should be held accountable for not making the playoffs in 2009 or 2010? I'm not the biggest Rizzo apologist, but come on...

I thought we were talking about the law of averages.  If you don't factor in his entire tenure, don't you screw up the entire premise that 33.33% of the teams make the playoffs every year.  You have reduced the pool to 29 teams.

Throw out records for all first year GM's for their first 3 years and the pool is reduced even further...and the success rate should be even higher, no?


Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4205: June 05, 2019, 11:41:38 AM »
So give him credit for the peak, but not the troughs that yielded the players that led to the peaks?

No, I'm saying that a straight percentage of how many years he's made the playoffs is a dumb way to evaluate a GM's tenure.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4206: June 05, 2019, 11:43:34 AM »
No, I'm saying that a straight percentage of how many years he's made the playoffs is a dumb way to evaluate a GM's tenure.

So, like advanced metrics, let's just invent a way to measure something in order to arrive at the results we want to achieve?

Rizzo just had BABIP his first 3 years...

What explains these past 2 then?

If a player is what the back of his bubblegum card says, what is the measure of the GM...only the good years?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4207: June 05, 2019, 11:43:40 AM »
Rizzo got the team moving in the right direction. Sure the Harper and Strasburg drafts helped but overall he made many good trades and moves. But they didn’t win in the postseason and are moving in the wrong direction. So time for a new GM. Not sure the Lerners are capable of selecting a good one though.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4208: June 05, 2019, 11:48:38 AM »
No, I'm saying that a straight percentage of how many years he's made the playoffs is a dumb way to evaluate a GM's tenure.

Personally I’d prefer number of World Series titles followed by number of pendants, followed by number of times they’ve made the playoffs

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4209: June 05, 2019, 11:49:47 AM »
So, like advanced metrics, let's just invent a way to measure something in order to arrive at the results we want to achieve?

Rizzo just had BABIP his first 3 years...

What explains these past 2 then?

I'm not the one using any stat. Or proposing any formula to evaluate.  I just said it's ludicrous to say that Rizzo is a bad GM because the Nats didn't make the postseason in 2009. I'm not even defending the guy. In fact, I've posted here that his inability to put together even a serviceable bullpen the past two years is a reason he should be gone. But base it on that or any number of things over the past few years.
 

Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4210: June 05, 2019, 11:50:20 AM »
Rizzo got the team moving in the right direction. Sure the Harper and Strasburg drafts helped but overall he made many good trades and moves. But they didn’t win in the postseason and are moving in the wrong direction. So time for a new GM. Not sure the Lerners are capable of selecting a good one though.

His time has come...and gone...he and dave need to be shown the door...

The issue is the Lerners don't know baseball.  Maybe sliding attendance and a loss of revenue will get them to see the light.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4211: June 05, 2019, 11:51:00 AM »
I'm not the one using any stat. Or proposing any formula to evaluate.  I just said it's ludicrous to say that Rizzo is a bad GM because the Nats didn't make the postseason in 2009. I'm not even defending the guy. In fact, I've posted here that his inability to put together even a serviceable bullpen the past two years is a reason he should be gone. But base it on that or any number of things over the past few years.
 

Bad is not the same as mediocre- saying he’s mediocre is saying he isn’t good or bad, he’s middling which seems like a fair evaluation of his tenure here

Offline varoadking

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4212: June 05, 2019, 11:51:37 AM »
I'm not the one using any stat. Or proposing any formula to evaluate.  I just said it's ludicrous to say that Rizzo is a bad GM because the Nats didn't make the postseason in 2009. I'm not even defending the guy. In fact, I've posted here that his inability to put together even a serviceable bullpen the past two years is a reason he should be gone. But base it on that or any number of things over the past few years.

And all I'm sayin' is that Cory's assumptions are flawed...

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4213: June 05, 2019, 11:53:18 AM »
His time has come...and gone...he and dave need to be shown the door...

The issue is the Lerners don't know baseball.  Maybe sliding attendance and a loss of revenue will get them to see the light.
Yea. It’s kind of scary. Like Ted selecting a GM for the Wizards. We are doomed.

I think the common sense move would be to hire a senior advisor of some sort. Someone retired but with experience as a team president or GM. But also knowledgeable of analytics. Then you let that person lead the search. Teds consulting firm approach has not worked with the Wizards. At least so far.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4214: June 05, 2019, 11:53:55 AM »
His time has come...and gone...he and dave need to be shown the door...

+1

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4215: June 05, 2019, 11:54:00 AM »
Yea. It’s kind of scary. Like Ted selecting a GM for the Wizards. We are doomed.

I think the common sense move would be to hire a senior advisor of some sort. Someone retired but with experience as a team president or GM. But also knowledgeable of analytics. Then you let that person lead the search. Teds consulting firm approach has not worked with the Wizards. At least so far.

Ironically, they selected Rizzo

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4216: June 05, 2019, 11:55:24 AM »
Bad is not the same as mediocre- saying he’s mediocre is saying he isn’t good or bad, he’s middling which seems like a fair evaluation of his tenure here

Bad, Mediocre whatever. Making any evaluation that includes win loss data from the first year or two seems dumb. If you think he's mediocre there is plenty of evidence to support that in recent years. I'm not sure "Nats only won 59 games in 2009" is the justification that's needed.

 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4217: June 05, 2019, 11:57:41 AM »
Ironically, they selected Rizzo
He was in place. Not sure they have anyone who works for Rizzo who is qualified?

Looks like the Wizards will promote Tommy Shepherd. Who knows. It might work.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4218: June 05, 2019, 12:18:48 PM »
Beer man

Online UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4219: June 05, 2019, 12:44:13 PM »
must have been hard to be GM when Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon fall into your lap and the owner forces you to sign max scherzer

rizzo is above average so far and the mystery of a new GM hired by mark does terrify me, though.

Offline spidernat

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4220: June 05, 2019, 12:47:26 PM »
Bad is not the same as mediocre- saying he’s mediocre is saying he isn’t good or bad, he’s middling which seems like a fair evaluation of his tenure here



Figuring out whether bad is the same as mediocre, et al, sounds like a job for Slateman.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4221: June 05, 2019, 01:49:30 PM »
must have been hard to be GM when Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon fall into your lap and the owner forces you to sign max scherzer

rizzo is above average so far and the mystery of a new GM hired by mark does terrify me, though.

Everybody in the world was going to draft Stras and Harper in that spot, sure.  Do you know some guys that went ahead of Rendon?  Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling.  You don't always get an impact guy at #6, so he made a great pick.  Did Juan Soto and Victor Robles fall in his lap?  Signing Daniel Murphy?  Trading Souza for Treat Turner and Joe Ross?  Trading whoever that was to the Twins for Wilson Ramos?  Picking up a Howie Kendrick?  He's made a lot of good moves over the years.  He's not the best GM ever or anything, but he's been well above average to take an organzation that not only had the worst MLB team but the worst system and having the run he's had.  He didn't take over the Yankees or Red Sox.  He deserves at least next season to see where things are headed. 

Offline mitlen

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4222: June 05, 2019, 01:54:43 PM »
Everybody in the world was going to draft Stras and Harper in that spot, sure.  Do you know some guys that went ahead of Rendon?  Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling.  You don't always get an impact guy at #6, so he made a great pick.  Did Juan Soto and Victor Robles fall in his lap?  Signing Daniel Murphy?  Trading Souza for Treat Turner and Joe Ross?  Trading whoever that was to the Twins for Wilson Ramos?  Picking up a Howie Kendrick?  He's made a lot of good moves over the years.  He's not the best GM ever or anything, but he's been well above average to take an organzation that not only had the worst MLB team but the worst system and having the run he's had.  He didn't take over the Yankees or Red Sox.  He deserves at least next season to see where things are headed. 

IIRC Rendon fell to 6th because of injuries in college.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4223: June 05, 2019, 01:59:00 PM »
IIRC Rendon fell to 6th because of injuries in college.

Ankles if memory serves me.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #4224: June 05, 2019, 02:01:52 PM »
Everybody in the world was going to draft Stras and Harper in that spot, sure.  Do you know some guys that went ahead of Rendon?  Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling.  You don't always get an impact guy at #6, so he made a great pick.  Did Juan Soto and Victor Robles fall in his lap?  Signing Daniel Murphy?  Trading Souza for Treat Turner and Joe Ross?  Trading whoever that was to the Twins for Wilson Ramos?  Picking up a Howie Kendrick?  He's made a lot of good moves over the years.  He's not the best GM ever or anything, but he's been well above average to take an organzation that not only had the worst MLB team but the worst system and having the run he's had.  He didn't take over the Yankees or Red Sox.  He deserves at least next season to see where things are headed.

I agree with you. But you had to try hard to get a dud in that draft. It was absolutely loaded.