Nationals new 1B discussion

[Coladar]

Per MLB Trade Rumors an hour ago:

10:38pm: Confidence is growing on both sides that LaRoche will end up in Washington, a person with knowledge of the talks told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

Obviously nothing earth shattering there, just rumors and speculation. That said, it sure sounds like LaRoche gets signed in the next couple of days.

[hammondsnats]

Per MLB Trade Rumors an hour ago:

Obviously nothing earth shattering there, just rumors and speculation. That said, it sure sounds like LaRoche gets signed in the next couple of days.

yup sounds like it's going to happen anyday now.

[PC]

I'm sorry, I don't mean to be too rude here, but I honestly don't see what difference it makes if we sign him tomorrow or on February 10.  It's not like we're in on 20 guys and waiting to see which one bites.  At this point it's basically down to LaRoche and Pavano.  I'm sure there are other trade and conversations we're not privy too, but I really doubt the LaRoche conversations are taking away from other deals.  I think it's more on LaRoche at this point than anything else at this point anyway.

Nothing is gained by waiting and potentially, you could lose the player.  You're resting your hopes on the machinations of every other MLB team and what they will do or won't do.  What if something unforeseen happens?  What if some other teams' starting first baseman is arrested for murder, with the smoking gun in his hand?  They'll be back in the market, looking for a first baseman and, suddenly, there's competition for him.

[DPMOmaha]

Nothing is gained by waiting and potentially, you could lose the player.  You're resting your hopes on the machinations of every other MLB team and what they will do or won't do.  What if something unforeseen happens?  What if some other teams' starting first baseman is arrested for murder, with the smoking gun in his hand?  They'll be back in the market, looking for a first baseman and, suddenly, there's competition for him.

  Did you really just go there?  I mean, I know the Alfredo Simon thing just went down, but really?

[Coladar]

  Did you really just go there?  I mean, I know the Alfredo Simon thing just went down, but really?

Lol. Really, do we need a "Its too soon." threshold for Simon shooting some guy? MLB players run around the streets shooting their guns all the time, it could easily happen.

[DPMOmaha]

Lol. Really, do we need a "Its too soon." threshold for Simon shooting some guy? MLB players run around the streets shooting their guns all the time, it could easily happen.

No kidding.  I'm just wait for the news to break on the Pujols killing spree.

[houston-nat]

Same here.

Ideally, I would have liked Werth and Dunn, but what's done is done.

Btw, does anyone think I'm crazy for this idea?:

I think it could have been an interesting move to send Zimmerman to the Reds for Votto or Alonso (possibly Alonso + a prospect), and then sign Beltre.

I could never see it happening, but it's one of those "I would do it on MLB The Show" type of moves.

Knorr,
IF I had assurance that I absolutely WOULD sign Adrian Beltre, then yes, I would definitely trade Ryan Zimmerman for Joey Votto or Yonder Alonso + a ML starting pitcher. The added bonus is that Zimmerman leaving the team would make Nats320 quit in cynical resignation.

[Tyler Durden]

Knorr,
IF I had assurance that I absolutely WOULD sign Adrian Beltre, then yes, I would definitely trade Ryan Zimmerman for Joey Votto or Yonder Alonso + a ML starting pitcher. The added bonus is that Zimmerman leaving the team would make Nats320 quit in cynical resignation.

Like you said, it would never happen - but I'd make the trade for Votto and sign Beltre.  Not Alonso, though.

[Tyler Durden]

Looking at baseball-reference, LaRoche has some interesting comparisons that would make me a lot more comfortable with a 2 year deal than a 3 year deal. 

Tony Clark, Tino Martinez, Glen Davis, and Eric Karros are 4 out of the top 5.  Most of those guys were either done or had a significant downturn by the time they reached their age 33(ish) season. 

Glen Davis just fell off a cliff when he turned 30.  That's the most worrying because of LaRoche's down season last year in a number of areas. 

At least we won't have traded Steve Finley and Curt Schilling for him!

Anyway, we still need the guy so sign him for 2 years today and be done with it.

[MarquisDeSade]

And yet still no discussion from the FO on a "top of the rotation" starter.  Welcome to another 100+ loss season...

[houston-nat]

And yet still no discussion from the FO on a "top of the rotation" starter.  Welcome to another 100+ loss season...

Do you really think that (hypothetically)
Nationals - (Dunn + Willingham + Peralta) + (LaRoche + Werth + Ankiel + HRod + Zmann) + ([.5]Wang) = -7 games?

Of course I agree with you that we need starting pitching badly. It's always been the No 1 need. But I don't agree that this is a 100 loss team, not if last year's team wasn't. 90, sure.

[Evolution33]

Do you really think that (hypothetically)
Nationals - (Dunn + Willingham + Peralta) + (LaRoche + Werth + Ankiel + HRod + Zmann) + ([.5]Wang) = -7 games?

Of course I agree with you that we need starting pitching badly. It's always been the No 1 need. But I don't agree that this is a 100 loss team, not if last year's team wasn't. 90, sure.

If you can look at the situation from other peoples eyes it is a 100 loss team. I agree with you and don't think it is as reality lies in the middle of best case and worst case, but for some reason these days people are more and more getting realist and pessimist confused. A lot of people are just being negative and saying they are being realistic when in reality they are just being unrealisticly negative, but if you look at the situation through their eyes what you see is a rotation that is:

Jordan Zimmermann: young, unproven, and coming off injury
Livan Hernandez: due for serious regression, old for the age he claims to be and probably older, also fat
Jason Marquis: bone spurs
John Lannan: number 4 or 5 in his best years and terrible first half of last year, second half was fluke like rest of career
Yunesky Maya: great at getting unskilled latinos out but bad numbers in majors last season, will never learn 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hell Werth was even considered a worse OF'er than Hammer in 2010.

Hammer -4.4 UZR/-6.8 UZR/150
Werth -6.9 UZR/-7.2 UZR/150

single season UZR   It's true, and you were only talking about year to year improvement, but Werth having a normal year defensively should be a 10 - 15 run improvement over his and Willingham's 2010.

Looking at 2010, Werth had a range drop in right and played about 10 fewer games (90 innings), which explains the big UZR drop to (-3) runs from 2007 - 2009, when he was +30 runs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lol. Really, do we need a "Its too soon." threshold for Simon shooting some guy? MLB NFL players run around the streets shooting their guns all the time, it could easily happen.

Fixed

[blue911]

single season UZR    It's true, and you were only talking about year to year improvement, but Werth having a normal year defensively should be a 10 - 15 run improvement over his and Willingham's 2010.

Looking at 2010, Werth had a range drop in right and played about 10 fewer games (90 innings), which explains the big UZR drop to (-3) runs from 2007 - 2009, when he was +30 runs.

Werth's overall rating was effected by his playing center. Jayson Werth isn't a centerfielder just like Elijah Dukes wasn't a centerfielder.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Team needs two positional signings - a lefty 1b and a second righty outfielder / 1b. LaRoche and Cantu would be interesting.  I could enjoy watching those two at first and Morse / Ankiel in left.

[blue911]

Team needs two positional signings - a lefty 1b and a second righty outfielder / 1b. LaRoche and Cantu would be interesting.  I could enjoy watching those two at first and Morse / Ankiel in left.

I'd take Mike Sweeney long before the ugliest man in the western hemisphere.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'd take Mike Sweeney long before the ugliest man in the western hemisphere.

If you could tell me Sweeney can bend and stay out of the hospital again, then I'd say that is a wonderful development and agree with you. 

[blue911]

If you could tell me Sweeney can bend and stay out of the hospital again, then I'd say that is a wonderful development and agree with you. 

I can't but Cantu isn't going to be satisfied with a limited duty role. Sweeney has adjusted to that role primarily because he can't hold up as an everyday player. If you sign LaRoche, he's going to get a vast majority of the starts so you need a guy to spell him against tough lefties and pinch hit. 

[houston-nat]

MLBTR

TUESDAY, 7:49am: The Nationals are closing in on a two-year deal with LaRoche, according to Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio (on Twitter). Bowden was GM Mike Rizzo's predecessor in Washington.

[Tyler Durden]

MLBTR

TUESDAY, 7:49am: The Nationals are closing in on a two-year deal with LaRoche, according to Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio (on Twitter). Bowden was GM Mike Rizzo's predecessor in Washington.

Excellent news.  I'm going to quote what I wrote earlier on why 3 yrs is probably too much.  I'd rather pay 9 mil/yr for 2 years than 7 mil/yr for 3.

Looking at baseball-reference, LaRoche has some interesting comparisons that would make me a lot more comfortable with a 2 year deal than a 3 year deal. 

Tony Clark, Tino Martinez, Glen Davis, and Eric Karros are 4 out of the top 5.  Most of those guys were either done or had a significant downturn by the time they reached their age 33(ish) season. 

Glen Davis just fell off a cliff when he turned 30.  That's the most worrying because of LaRoche's down season last year in a number of areas. 

At least we won't have traded Steve Finley and Curt Schilling for him!

Anyway, we still need the guy so sign him for 2 years today and be done with it.

[doubler]

I gotta say, I prefer the Zimmy, Werth, LaRoche combo over the Zimmy, Dunn, and Willingham combo. Better defense, and a little more speed...

So yeah, I am digging this if true.

[Ray D]

 I'd rather pay 9 mil/yr for 2 years than 7 mil/yr for 3.

9m for 2 years total 18m while 7m for 3 totals 21m, so the third year would effectively cost an extra 3m vs. two years. Isn't it worth it?

[natsfan4evr]

LaRoche should help in returning the 3rd base gold glove award to its righteous owner.

[Lintyfresh85]

LaRoche should help in returning the 3rd base gold glove award to its righteous owner.

It wasn't Dunn's fault that Zimmerman lost it in the first place.

http://flotn.blogspot.com/2010/11/open-letter-to-dave-sheinin.html