Nationals new 1B discussion

[Lintyfresh85]

If were talking overall, LaRoche isn't much of a downgrade at all from Dunn.

Dunn is a better offensive player, mainly because hell hit more bombs. LaRoche will not compare there but does in most other categories.

No. The do not compare, in the slightest.

Career - Dunn

.250/.381/.521/.902

Career - LaRoche

.271/.339/.488/.827

.042 Difference in OBP
.033 Difference in SLG
.075 Difference in OPS

LaRoche is a shell of what Dunn is.

And, like Lorb and Rizzo, you seem to be over estimating the impact of defense... on a non-defensive intensive position.

I respect your opinion... but man, I could not disagree with it more.

[wpa2629]

RBIs mean nothing.  Just for future reference.

RBIs mean nothing? How so?

[RyanTheRiot]

Are you guys trying to say their WAR is equivalent, because I think it is, actually.

Laroche 2.1, Dunn 3.9 on Fangraphs. Dunn had was twice the player last year. However, Werth was 1.5x the player dunn was.

Dunn put up 3.9 WAR last year compared to LaRoche's 2.1

That's a significant difference

[PANatsFan]

Dunn put up 3.9 WAR last year compared to LaRoche's 2.1

That's a significant difference

Yeah, look at the quote, I fixed it

[Lintyfresh85]

Are you guys trying to say their WAR is equivalent, because I think it is, actually.

Laroche 2.1, Dunn 3.9 on Fangraphs. Dunn had was twice the player last year. However, Werth was 1.5x the player dunn was.

2010
LaRoche WAR - 2.1
Dunn War - 3.9

Career
LaRoche WAR - 11.6
Dunn WAR - 27.8

[Lintyfresh85]

RBIs mean nothing? How so?

He means in terms of what a player can control. You can't control how many guys are on base when you hit a HR/2B what have you.

That's why it's generally considered a bad statistic to judge individual players on.

[RyanTheRiot]

RBIs mean nothing? How so?

RBIs depend on factors that are out of the hitter's control, namely, the lineup around him.  A batter who has more at bats with runners on base/runners in scoring position will have more RBIs over the course of the season.  LaRoche's RBI total last season was inflated by Arizona's quality lineup

[wpa2629]

So between losing Hammer and Dunn and Adding Werth and LaRoche, where does that leave us in the end? About the same?

[PANatsFan]

RBIs mean nothing? How so?

RBI's do not mean nothing. RBI's are not well correlated with INDIVIDUAL performance. Put Ron Belliard on the Yankees and his RBI will double, that's what people are trying to say. They are an interesting stat, but not that useful in a 1:1 comparison of players.

[wpa2629]

RBI's do not mean nothing. RBI's are not well correlated with INDIVIDUAL performance. Put Ron Belliard on the Yankees and his RBI will double, that's what people are trying to say. They are an interesting stat, but not that useful in a 1:1 comparison of players.

Yes, of course. I know that, my RBI post was TIC

<silver lining>

[PANatsFan]

So between losing Hammer and Dunn and Adding Werth and LaRoche, where does that leave us in the end? About the same?

5.0+2.1=7.1 wins
2.7+3.9=6.6 wins

UPGRADE

[PANatsFan]

Yes, of course. I know that, my RBI post was TIC

<silver lining>

I'm on your side, missy

[Lintyfresh85]

@JenRoyleMASN

Source: Adam LaRoche is currently in negotiations with the Nationals on a multi-year deal in the $8-9 million per year range.

That certainly seems excessive for LaRoche.

Much rather had Lee at 8 Million.

[PANatsFan]

That certainly seems excessive for LaRoche.

Much rather had Lee at 8 Million.

His 2.0 WAR over LaRoche's 2.1? It's a wash.

[RyanTheRiot]

I agree.  We need to drag this out and make LaRoche settle for less money

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If were talking overall, LaRoche isn't much of a downgrade at all from Dunn.

Dunn is a better offensive player, mainly because hell hit more bombs. LaRoche will not compare there but does in most other categories.

Defensively, LaRoche is twice the defender Dunn is.

So overall, I think the impact will be similar. Couple less runs, but well save a few more on the defensive end.

I also don't see how you can compare Morse and LaRoche. LaRoche is proven over 5+ years as a starter. Morse had a solid year lasy year as a utility guy. LaRoche is a definite upgrade if Morse is the alternative.

Let's just hope we get LaRoche done. I thin him being left handed makes him a better fit for the lineup, but I would have preferred Lee for one year.

Morse's career v LHP is .313 / .375 / .518 . Granted, it's over only about a half a season's PAs (248), but with a AAA line over 1287 PAs of .292 / .354 / .461 against all pitching, I'm very, very comfortable saying he has to play v. LHP.  If it's over LaRoche at first (career 888 PAs, .254 / .308 / .446 v. LHP), then do it, and get a lefty masher OF to yank either Roger or Nyjer out of the line up, or, if that is too much, then just play Morse in the OF over one of those two v. LHP.  But Morse absolutely must plan v. LHP.

[wpa2629]

5.0+2.1=7.1 wins
2.7+3.9=6.6 wins

UPGRADE

And the other moves we've made? Are we better than we were last year?

[Lintyfresh85]

His 2.0 WAR over LaRoche's 2.1? It's a wash.

On average, Lee has the better year.

2.73 WAR to about 1.65 for LaRoche.

Neither are that great of an outcome. 

[hammondsnats]

I agree.  We need to drag this out and make LaRoche settle for less money

does $1-2 million dollars really make a difference?  I'm not LAC baiting here, I'm just saying. 

You never know a team could swoop in and pick him up. 

[PANatsFan]

On average, Lee has the better year.

2.73 WAR to about 1.65 for LaRoche.

Neither are that great of an outcome. 

Nope, we need a star at 1B. Hopefully in a year or 2 Hood, Burgess, Marrero, Norris, SOMEONE can play there and mash.

[PANatsFan]

And the other moves we've made? Are we better than we were last year?

I love the bench. Love love the bench. Love the bullpen. No replacement for Strasburg makes me really worried though. There just wasn't anyone to get.

[Lintyfresh85]

And the other moves we've made? Are we better than we were last year?

If you factor in someone like Chad Gaudin who was a -0.9 WAR player last year... doubtful... but if you add LaRoche to Werth/Ankiel, yes.

But, then again, you also lose the WAR of Peralta etc. etc.

To be honest, it's all very similar... and it really makes the Nats look like they're just spinning their tires.

[wpa2629]

OK, assuming we get LaRoche prognostication anyone?

[Lintyfresh85]

You never know a team could swoop in and pick him up. 

Good. Maybe then it'll teach the GM not to make up fake excuses on why you don't like a star player, and get his ass in gear and keep the good players while adding others to the mix... instead of just shuffling the deck chairs.

[RyanTheRiot]

does $1-2 million dollars really make a difference?  I'm not LAC baiting here, I'm just saying. 

You never know a team could swoop in and pick him up. 

$1 million is a big difference.  Personally, I value LaRoche to be worth $6-7 million on the open market, not $8-9 million.  Overpaying for average talent is not the way to build a consistent winner.