Nationals vs Mets, Game 1

[KnorrForYourMoney]

There are a lot of great ways to answer that question....

[CJames0569]

Who "hates" Desmond in the two hole?

Hammonds doesn't mind it that's for sure

[sportsfan882]

"The Luckiest Man Alive"

FanGraphs rips Livan Hernandez

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-luckiest-man-alive/

In a few hours, Livan Hernandez will take the hill against the Mets, and he will look to continue one of the luckiest runs in the history of major league baseball.

A quick look at the gap between Hernandez’s ERA (1.46) and his xFIP (5.09) would tell that he’s gotten fortunate, but I don’t even think those numbers do justice just how incredibly Hernandez has walked the tightrope this season.

He’s thrown 49 1/3 innings in his seven starts and allowed just nine runs while putting 51 men on base. Well, that’s not really true, because he’s allowed six home runs, so those guys were never really “baserunners” in the sense that most of us think of the word. Take the home runs out of the picture, and Hernandez has put 45 guys on base. Three of them have scored.

Three. Out of 45.

And the hilarious part is that he hasn’t even pitched all that well with runners on base. He’s pitched to 71 hitters when there as at least one man on. Of those 71, he’s walked nine, struck out just six, and posted an okay-but-not-spectacular 47% groundball percentage. However, opponents have an .054 batting average on balls in play against him in those situations. Oh Fifty Four.

It’s even better when opponents have put a runner in scoring position. In the 38 batters who have faced Hernandez with a chance to drive in a run, one has gotten a hit, and it was a single. Opponents are 1 for 30 with seven walks and a sac fly against Livan in RISP situations. Only four of those 29 outs were strikeouts.

I figured I should write about this while I still had the chance, because every time he takes the hill, there’s a chance it will all just blow up. No one can sustain this for very long, especially not a guy who just throws the ball over the plate and hopes the ball finds one of his fielders. But yet, for seven miraculous starts, Hernandez has seen just that happen.

It’s one of the most amazing things we’ll ever see on a baseball field.

[UMDNats]

Pretty solid lineup for tonight. Guzman is on fire and getting on base. Desmond can drive in runs. Let's end this streak!!

[Evolution33]

Maybe we should just play a game without fielders to prove them right. I don't even understand how there can be a stat that adjusts a pitchers ERA is fielders didn't exist. Imagine a football stat QAWR QB accuracy with reciever or a basketball sta SPMB shooting percentage minus backboard. The game is played with fielders and hitting your spots and pitching to your defense is how guys that can't overpower hitters survive.

[hammondsnats]

"The Luckiest Man Alive"

FanGraphs rips Livan Hernandez

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-luckiest-man-alive/

i'm surprised you didn't attach a after reading that column.

you have been anti-livo ever since this board started!

[sportsfan882]

i'm surprised you didn't attach a after reading that column.

you have been anti-livo ever since this board started!

I think the article is bullcrap. He has pitched really well thus far this season....

With that being said I think he gets rocked tonight. 

[hammondsnats]

I think the article is bullcrap. He has pitched really well thus far this season....

With that being said I think he gets rocked tonight. 

hahahaha you will sure be first ballot WNFF hall of fame

[Lintyfresh85]

Don't you have to be respected to be a Hall of Famer?

[PANatsFan]

Maybe we should just play a game without fielders to prove them right. I don't even understand how there can be a stat that adjusts a pitchers ERA is fielders didn't exist. Imagine a football stat QAWR QB accuracy with reciever or a basketball sta SPMB shooting percentage minus backboard. The game is played with fielders and hitting your spots and pitching to your defense is how guys that can't overpower hitters survive.

According to QAWR, Anthony Morelli is the greatest QB of all time.


Any way to check opponents' slugging? That could explain allowing hits with runners on and no runs. 2 singles, a DP and a fly out is just not a problem.

[UMDNats]

We should have a WNFF hall of fame. Requirements re like 5,000 posts, 2 years of registration, and them forum vote. Max like 3 entries per season.

First ballot:

AirZimmerman (no idea if he fits requirements)
ASSCLOWN
???

[blue911]

According to QAWR, Anthony Morelli is the greatest QB of all time.


Any way to check opponents' slugging? That could explain allowing hits with runners on and no runs. 2 singles, a DP and a fly out is just not a problem.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=hernali01&year=&t=p

[PANatsFan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=hernali01&year=&t=p

There you go. He wins when doesn't give up doubles or HR's. Two message board posters in 30 seconds deflated the entire story. What a dork.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not all knuckleballs are alike, but for fun, 3 hitters have had over 20 PAs v. Wakefield - Pudge, Guz, and Kennedy.

Pudge:  54 PAs, .286 /.333 / .490
kennedy: 30 PAs, .241 /.267 / .379
Guzman:  23 PAs, .286 / .348 / .571

Kennedy has done better against Dickey (16 PAs, .267 / .333 / .533), with Guz 0 for 5, but IIRC Dickey has not always been a knuckleball pitcher.  He came up with Texas, and I think did not throw significant MLB innings with using a knuckleball until he was with Seattle.  Kennedy's ABs were probably in 2003 and 2004, pre-knuckleball, I think, w/o further checking.

[DPMOmaha]

We should have a WNFF hall of fame. Requirements re like 5,000 posts, 2 years of registration, and them forum vote. Max like 3 entries per season.

First ballot:

AirZimmerman (no idea if he fits requirements)
ASSCLOWN
???

gotta be Chief.  He's the Abner Doubleday of WNFF.  Could the HOF handle the induction of AZ and AC/SF in the same class?

[PANatsFan]

Upon further examination, most of Livan's strikeouts are in the heart of the order. So he gives the early and late hitters more hittable pitches and takes out the big boppers. Again, 30 seconds.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

We should have a WNFF hall of fame. Requirements re like 5,000 posts, 2 years of registration, and them forum vote. Max like 3 entries per season.

First ballot:

AirZimmerman (no idea if he fits requirements)
ASSCLOWN
???

Man, I hope iluvryanzimmerman or mike hughes meet the requirements.

[UMDNats]

Man, I hope iluvryanzimmerman or mike hughes meet the requirements.

Ah, those are the two I was debating for that third spot. Both are legends.

[houston-nat]

But the thing is, you have to be done with your career to get in the Hall of Fame.

So let's ban ASSCLOWN.

[spidernat]

"The Luckiest Man Alive"

FanGraphs rips Livan Hernandez

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-luckiest-man-alive/

Who cares what they have to say. I don't understand why some of you give a freak about that. As long as he pitches well and gives us a shot at winning they can call it anything they want.

With that being said I think he gets rocked tonight. 

I doubt SF has the sack to test this out on a bet but care to place a wager on this SF?

[sportsfan882]

what's the bet. i won't be here during the game though

[Neuman]

Hey everyone - I have my game preview up,
http://www.examiner.com/x-19476-Washington-Nationals-Examiner~y2010m5d19-Game-41-Nats-back-to-Square-One

And I'd love to hear your thoughts on the first 40 games:
http://www.examiner.com/x-19476-Washington-Nationals-Examiner~y2010m5d19-Nationals-Quarterly-Report

[The Chief]

It seems to me that fangraphs makes no allowances for intelligent situational pitching.  I'd be the first person to admit that Livan has been incredibly lucky, but I'm a firm believer that you make your own luck.

[The Chief]

Whoa, who the heck is this chick?

[The Chief]

Jen Royal, apparently.