Author Topic: The Livan Hernandez Cy Young Watch (Read 13114 times)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #100 on:** May 08, 2010, 05:59:10 pm »

Quote from: Potomac Cannons on May 08, 2010, 05:53:39 pm

He's got a FIP of 4.55 and xFIP of 3.03 while his BABIP is well above league average. The only stat he can control that isn't good is the HR/9 and that is likely just the result of SSS being this early in the season.

An indication of it being SSS is that it is about 1 per 9 worse than his career.

Potomac Cannons · « **Reply #101 on:** May 08, 2010, 06:00:10 pm »

Quote from: cmdterps44 on May 08, 2010, 05:40:58 pm

I read his post you ass.

For the record: All you did with this post is criticize me and repeat what houston said. so please, shut the freak up and stop thinking your the crap.

His post showed just how consistent Walker has been this year and that his "bad" appearances have been when he's been used in long relief settings (twice in 3.0 IP situations and one 1.1 IP). Your post immediately followed that up by saying he was inconsistent despite the evidence otherwise. The guy has walked 2 batters in 16.1 IP and struck out 17. He's given up a few homers (way ahead of his career and recent norms) and hasn't been picked up by his replacement relievers yet. I guess it's the difference between reading and comprehension.

cmdterps44 · « **Reply #102 on:** May 08, 2010, 06:08:15 pm »

Quote from: Potomac Cannons on May 08, 2010, 06:00:10 pm

His post showed just how consistent Walker has been this year and that his "bad" appearances have been when he's been used in long relief settings.

Yes, hes given up the runs when hes went 2 innings or longer but if you look closer, hes given up those runs in his first inning of appearance aside from a homer given up 2 innings later in the same appearance. Just saying that in his first appearance of each game, giving up 2 to 4 runs in an inning is crappy.

Again, all I'm saying is I want him given the opportunity to show he can pitch in winning situations so we don't have to go to Bruney anymore.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #103 on:** May 08, 2010, 06:25:29 pm »

Maybe this should be in the pitching or bullpen thread, but in 9 appearances, he's given up 1 or less WHIP in 5, he's had 3 blowups, and he's had last night (2 runners in an inning). Bruney, OTOH, in 15 appearances, has had < 1 WHIP 6 times, and of those, 5 were in a row in a streak from 4/16 - 24. At most, you can say Bruney has had a short effective streak once. Perhaps Bruney is a guy who you ride when he looks good and slip to low leverage when he is not hot. I'd say Walker has been more consistently good.

tomterp · « **Reply #104 on:** May 08, 2010, 10:27:59 pm »

Quote from: Potomac Cannons on May 08, 2010, 04:54:44 pm

It's as if you didn't even read the post you quoted. Pretty convincing argument that pointed out the exact situations in which Walker gives up runs and the fact that he hasn't in 6 of 9 appearances. Way to add nothing to the conversation.

Stop the condescending bullcrap. Are you so inarticulate you can't make your arguments without them?

houston-nat · « **Reply #105 on:** May 08, 2010, 10:33:28 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on May 08, 2010, 10:27:59 pm

Stop the condescending bullcrap. Are you so inarticulate you can't make your arguments without them?

Well, the first red line was an open question, in my opinion, but of course Potomac was agreeing with me.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #106 on:** May 08, 2010, 11:57:07 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on May 08, 2010, 10:27:59 pm

Stop the condescending bullcrap. Are you so inarticulate you can't make your arguments without them?

He has very good points without them. I don't get it.

cmdterps44 · « **Reply #107 on:** May 09, 2010, 06:00:57 am »

Quote from: PANatsFan on May 08, 2010, 11:57:07 pm

He has very good points without them. I don't get it.

He's been condescending in a lot of posts directed at people so I just lost it because I've had enough of him being that way.

tomterp · « **Reply #108 on:** May 09, 2010, 04:45:23 pm »

Another crappy ass performance by Livan. Too many walks, hits, baserunners, pitches, not enough velocity, ratios all out of whack, totally sucked. Only those suckers who think how many runs you give up is important thought he pitched well today. Again. He's really continuing his serial lucky streak, ad nauseum.

Obed_Marsh · « **Reply #109 on:** May 09, 2010, 04:51:44 pm »

Are you trying to create another vindicator thread?

Don't jinx him.

tomterp · « **Reply #110 on:** May 09, 2010, 04:54:43 pm »

Quote from: Obed_Marsh on May 09, 2010, 04:51:44 pm

Trying to create another vindicator thread?

Don't jinx him.

I don't believe in jinxes.

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welch · « **Reply #111 on:** May 09, 2010, 04:54:53 pm »

Livan H.s the reverse of the Pyrrhic Victory (as in "a few more such victories, and I am undone"). If every Nats pitcher threw as poorly as L Hernandez, the Nats would be in first place.

Obed_Marsh · « **Reply #112 on:** May 09, 2010, 04:56:15 pm »

Well, by all means than, go back to you expressing your man love. Tell us again how your sweetie is unappreciated.

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #113 on:** May 09, 2010, 05:08:27 pm »

I think Livo is one of the front runners for comeback player of the year. Can you think of anyone more worthy? Unfortunately his low K rate will make it hard to win the Cy Young

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #114 on:** May 09, 2010, 05:34:49 pm »

Quote from: natsfan4evr on May 09, 2010, 05:08:27 pm

I think Livo is one of the front runners for comeback player of the year.

Livo does not run. Livo is a front walker. At a comfortable pace.

natsfan4evr · « **Reply #115 on:** May 09, 2010, 05:43:02 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on May 09, 2010, 05:34:49 pm

Livo does not run. Livo is a front walker. At a comfortable pace.

UMDNats · « **Reply #116 on:** May 09, 2010, 05:52:27 pm »

Man, through a little over a month, Livan has been awesome. Did not anticipate anything like this.

EdStroud · « **Reply #117 on:** May 09, 2010, 05:56:42 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on May 09, 2010, 04:45:23 pm

Another crappy ass performance by Livan. Too many walks, hits, baserunners, pitches, not enough velocity, ratios all out of whack, totally sucked. Only those suckers who think how many runs you give up is important thought he pitched well today. Again. He's really continuing his serial lucky streak, ad nauseum.

Tom you forgot to post that he went out and pitched to many innings also. Livo just plain selfish I tell you.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #118 on:** May 09, 2010, 06:25:38 pm »

livan needs the cy young and comeback player of the year award.

Mathguy · « **Reply #119 on:** May 10, 2010, 08:38:39 am »

Definately, if Livan keeps pitching this well.

Quote from: hammondsnats on May 09, 2010, 06:25:38 pm

livan needs the cy young and comeback player of the year award.

NatsDad14 · « **Reply #120 on:** May 10, 2010, 09:06:43 am »

Tyler Clippard for Cy Young

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #121 on:** May 10, 2010, 09:28:47 am »

Quote from: GMUNat on May 10, 2010, 09:06:43 am

Tyler Clippard for Cy Young

Not if he keeps giving up the lead.

NatsDad14 · « **Reply #122 on:** May 10, 2010, 09:29:59 am »

Quote from: DPMOmaha on May 10, 2010, 09:28:47 am

Not if he keeps giving up the lead.

He's on pace for

0.76 ERA
31-0 W-L
37 holds (the stat that measures how many leads you hold)
152 K

Those are absolutely Cy Young numbers.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #123 on:** May 10, 2010, 09:31:22 am »

He's also on pace for about 20 blown saves. Can't win the Cy Young doing that.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #124 on:** May 10, 2010, 09:39:19 am »

Quote from: GMUNat on May 10, 2010, 09:29:59 am

He's on pace for

0.76 ERA
31-0 W-L
37 holds (the stat that measures how many leads you hold)
152 K

Those are absolutely Cy Young numbers.

GMU - I want to do a bigger post / thread about this later, but Fangraphs is trying to track reliever effectiveness by a new stat - Shutdowns and Meltdowns - based on the win probability added for a relievers appearance. Any appearance that increases WPA by > .06 is a shutdown, and nay that decreases it by more than .06 is a meltdown. By that score, Clippard was 10 - 0 going into the weekend, biggest net in the majors, but his first meltdown Saturday to knocked him to 10-1. Capps, OTOH, I think got one for yesterday and is now 10-1. They both rank 2d to Fernando Rodney in all of MLB for shutdowns and net SD - MD. It'll be cool to see how this plays out.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2010&month=0