The Livan Hernandez Cy Young Watch

[NatsDad14]

He's also on pace for about 20 blown saves.  Can't win the Cy Young doing that.

Blown saves stat sucks. If a reliever in a 1 run game leaves the bases loaded with no outs and you allow just 1 run (a good thing), you get credited with a blown save.

[DPMOmaha]

Blown saves stat sucks. If a reliever in a 1 run game leaves the bases loaded with no outs and you allow just 1 run (a good thing), you get credited with a blown save.

Which is why I also don't put a whole lot of stock into his W pace.  He can give up the lead and have Hammer hit a homer  to give us the lead and be credited with the win.  It's more likely Capps gets the Cy Young than Clippard, but if KRod couldn't get it a couple years ago for his 60 whatever saves or Lidge couldn't get it when he went 40 something without blowing it, Capps won't get it either.

[spidernat]

Which is why I also don't put a whole lot of stock into his W pace. 

[NatsDad14]

Voters will take a 31 game winner even if he blows 50 games.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Okay, I wasn't convinced until yesterday, but I'm on board.  I didn't think he had the staying power, and I thought hitters might figure him out, but he's just been way too proficient and locating his pitches with fantastic movement.  Livan is a definite candidate for the CY.

Go get 'em, Livo!

[Obed_Marsh]

Livan has been a joy to watch this year. I truly hope he continue to excel. It would be an amazing comeback story (not quite right but I cannot find a way to describe going from decent to great). He has really excelled to a degree I would not have thought possible.

His results certainly lead credence to the idea his knee was holding him back.

Well done Livo!

[tomterp]

Eric Seidman, Baseball Prospectus - May 7, before Livan's start yesterday.  I excerpt the Livan Hernandez portion only here.

Livan La Vida Loca
by Eric Seidman

Welcome back to Seidnotes, my occasional column researching the ever so quirky aspects that make this game so great. Today’s tale focuses on a pair of Washington Nationals starting pitchers, who are currently on opposite sides of the results spectrum: Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis. The former’s best days were considered to be so far behind him that it was nowhere near a guarantee that he would start the season employed. The latter made last year’s National League All-Star team on the coattails of a deceptively hot start for the Rockies before sputtering down the stretch, even being bumped from Jim Tracy’s playoff rotation. Still, Marquis entered the season with a much more favorable projection given his propensity for grounders and ability to log quality innings. Given the buildup here, it should be incredibly obvious to those not already in the know that, as of this past week, the two have engaged in a Freaky Friday swap of sorts with Hernandez’s effectiveness being worthy of the “Game Changer” moniker given to Marquis in Nationals' promotional materials. Their starts give way to some very interesting questions.

Halladay, Lincecum… Livan?

Livan Hernandez has now made five starts, lasting a total of 36.1 innings and compiling a gaudy 0.99 ERA. Let that sink in. Hernandez has allowed just four runners to cross the plate and one of them did not count against him (fancy way of saying unearned run). It beats the life out of me how someone with such sub-par offerings could stifle the opponent not once, not twice, but five times in a row, especially considering the fact that he has walked 13 batters to just 11 punchouts and isn’t necessarily playing in front of the world’s greatest defensive unit. His shiny ERA juxtaposed against how terrible that same mark has been the last couple of seasons got me wondering if anyone with poor ERAs in two straight years ever got off to a hot start in the third season of that hypothetical span.

There is certainly a selection bias at work because Hernandez's ERAs in 2008 and 2009 were 6.05 and 5.44, respectively, and pitchers with marks that putrid don’t generally last 20 or more starts in a season, let alone get to hang around for another year. With that disclaimer out of the way, and to enhance the output, I stuck to just the year immediately preceding the year in question. I first perused my pitching game logs table and computed numbers for pitchers in April of every year from 1974-2009. Next, I looked to match up those marks with the end of season ERA for the preceding year. Anyone with ERAs in that prior year that fell below 5.00 was removed, as was anyone who finished the season in question with a sub-5.00 ERA, and the innings pitched minimum was set to 100. From that filtered table, of interest were the hurlers who began that second season by posting a sub-3.00 ERA in their April outings. Since 1974, I found just 10 pitchers to throw 100 or more innings in a season with a bad ERA, who took the league by storm a year later, before falling off a cliff and once again finishing with an ERA north of 5.00. Livan could join this list below:

Name
 Years
 ERA-YR1
 ERA-YR2
 ERA-April-YR2
 
Jimmy Anderson
 2000-01
 5.25
 5.10
 2.76
 
Brian Burres
 2007-08
 5.95
 6.04
 2.58
 
Mark Hendrickson
 2007-08
 5.21
 5.45
 2.56
 
Sterling Hitchcock
 1996-97
 5.35
 5.20
 2.92
 
Al Nipper
 1986-87
 5.38
 5.43
 2.86
 
Dickie Noles
 1984-85
 5.15
 5.06
 2.08
 
Ramon Ortiz
 2006-07
 5.57
 5.45
 2.57
 
Wandy Rodriguez
 2005-06
 5.52
 5.63
 2.53
 
Scott Schoeneweis
 2000-01
 5.45
 5.08
 2.90
 
Ismael Valdez
 2003-04
 6.10
 5.19
 2.41
 
Next, what struck me as particularly odd was Livan’s awful Trachselian strikeout-to-walk ratio: has anyone with a sub-3.00 ERA after the first two months of the season—since we’re into May now—ever had a sub-1.00 K/BB in 45 or more innings? In other words, has any starter walked more than he has whiffed but managed to somehow not let runs score at even an average clip? As fate would have it, Livan makes this group a baker’s dozen as there have been 12 to accomplish this “feat” before him:

 Name
 Year
 ERA
 SO/UBB
 
Ricky Bones
 1994
 2.56
 0.86
 
Nate Cornejo
 2003
 3.00
 0.69
 
Neal Heaton
 1985
 2.88
 0.68
 
Rick Langford
 1978
 2.89
 0.95
 
Bill Laskey
 1984
 2.88
 0.83
 
Paul Mirabelli
 1980
 2.95
 0.63
 
Paul Moskau
 1979
 2.60
 0.90
 
Joe Niekro
 1979
 2.51
 0.97
 
Claude Osteen
 1974
 2.93
 0.88
 
Jim Palmer
 1981
 2.94
 0.74
 
Jim Rooker
 1974
 2.93
 0.93
 
Steve Trout
 1985
 2.03
 0.93
 
So, the season Livan is having right now certainly isn’t unprecedented but it is still rare, and incredibly zany to see such a magnificent ERA born from such awful peripherals.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I like the precedents in the second group (Palmer, Osteen, niekro) better than the first.  Surprisingly, is Niekro the only knuckleballer?

[CatsEye]

   Well, all this is good, but don't you thing you're jumping the gun - just a little bit, on talk about a Cy Young award?  I mean we still have got a little over 4 months of the season to go, eh? 
  How about waiting for Strassburg and Storen to come up, and then start talking about Cy Young awards, and records that are being broken, since everyone seems to think they will both be up pitching for the Nats in June...............just a thought
                                                                           

[The Chief]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/facetious

[PANatsFan]

I like the precedents in the second group (Palmer, Osteen, niekro) better than the first.  Surprisingly, is Niekro the only knuckleballer?

I'd figure Joel Osteen for a knuckleballer.

[imref]

So how did he end up with Ike Davis?  Dumb luck?

[CatsEye]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/facetious

                  And......try looking up sanctimonious.............            
                                                                         

[The Chief]

                  And......try looking up sanctimonious.............            
                                                                         

"making  a  hypocritical  show  of  religious  devotion,  piety,  righteousness,  etc."

I think you might've missed the mark there



                                   

[hammondsnats]

Livan deserves it ... there's no need to see what other pitchers have to do or to wait it out to the end of the year ... just give it to him!

[CatsEye]

"making  a  hypocritical  show  of  religious  devotion,  piety,  righteousness,  etc."

I think you might've missed the mark there
        
                                    

        WEBSTER's II-adj -feigning piety or righteousness-as in "he's a little sanctimonious, isn't he?"    
Aw well...the moment is gone.......the humor is lost     ...........I'm going to get ice cream....
                                          
                                                                                              

[The Chief]

There never was any humor.  Except for the fact that you were taking the title of the thread seriously.  Pretty rich coming from the guy who once asked me if *I* had a sense of humor

[CJames0569]

There never was any humor.  Except for the fact that you were taking the title of the thread seriously.

Wait, What?!?

You will rue the day you didn't take Livo seriously

[CatsEye]

There never was any humor.  Except for the fact that you were taking the title of the thread seriously.  Pretty rich coming from the guy who once asked me if I had a sense of humor

                     Ya know, inside humor can be a wonderful thing....especially if you are in a High School or College clique........I'm just saying.......
             No harm in asking questions-like for instance-do you have a sense of humor -purely as an example, of course.     I mean you are not sitting on a throne or anything, right?  (no, this is not a bathroom joke) 
         
    Okay, okay -enough - I am laughing too much - back to the thread topic.......
          

[The Chief]

Honestly I don't have any idea what you're talking about at this point

I linked the definition of "facetious" as a tongue-in-cheek way of telling you that no one here seriously thinks Livo will be in the Cy Young running by the end of the season, which you seemed to believe.  If your original post was "inside" humor then it was so far inside that only you and the sub-basement gremlins "got" it.

In any case, glad you're having fun

[Evolution33]

[spidernat]

...........I'm going to get ice cream....
                                         
                                                                                             

You love snacking don't you? 

[CatsEye]

                One of my favorite songs........along with several other Elton John songs.........you have good musical taste.....imo..    

  (What someone gives is not always the way it is taken.............Chinese proverb - and/or  -What someone says is not always the way it is received.............Chinese proverb)   

[CatsEye]

You love snacking don't you? 

             It is -what it is.........chili dogs, popcorn, pizza, bacon cheeseburgers, ice cream, good drinks, good food - you betcha.       I still eat a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables - it is all in doing it in moderation, having some form of daily exercise, and not eating anything beyond 7:00 pm at night - that is, if you don't want to gain weight.   

[hammondsnats]

Livan = Cy Young
Rigglemania = Manager of year
Strasburg = Rookie of year