Author Topic: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1  (Read 12786 times)

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Offline houston-nat

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #50: April 12, 2010, 12:22:49 PM »
Why don't they bat the pitcher second and have him bunt every time?

Offline CJames0569

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #51: April 12, 2010, 12:30:08 PM »
Why is it other teams always have their real lineup and our lineups always look like something from spring training?

LAC   :lol: :stir:

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #52: April 12, 2010, 01:07:33 PM »
beautiful day out and i have no work today!  gonna have a few cold ones here in a minute!

Offline EdStroud

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #53: April 12, 2010, 01:14:28 PM »
beautiful day out and i have no work today!  gonna have a few cold ones here in a minute!
Brats go on grill at 2 o'clock

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #54: April 12, 2010, 01:43:33 PM »
I don't like Guzman batting third

Anyone have access to a line up optimizer program?  I'd be curious what the optimum batting order for this group of players would be.  I'm at work and can't fit in all the probabilities on the one I googled (http://www.sportsquant.com/simbaseball.htm)  Just a guess, but a line up like this I think might be what it'd spit out:

Morgan
Desmond
Guzman
Dunn
Willingham
Pudge
Kennedy
Marquis
Taveras

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #55: April 12, 2010, 01:47:10 PM »
:? I understand they like his speed but I'd like to see us put someone who gets on base a little more consistently in the 2 hole. Based on our options there isn't a standout for that spot, but I'd rather see someone else. Any thoughts on trying out Pudge or Kennedy?
Pudge hit #2 most of his time in Detroit, I think.  His expected OBP is a little low, Kennedy is less hacktastic.  I prefer Desmond, but Pudge is hot, so I could see riding the hot hand.  Plus, it lets you go L-R-S-L-R at the top of the order, splitting up your lefties against a LHP.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #56: April 12, 2010, 01:58:51 PM »
For the third year running, the crap hits the fan when your team loses to us :lol:

http://www.wnff.net/index.php/topic,17280.0.html

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #57: April 12, 2010, 01:59:26 PM »
I have my laptop set up. Going to have to power it down until 3 because this power is going soooo fast.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #58: April 12, 2010, 02:00:41 PM »
I have my laptop set up. Going to have to power it down until 3 because this power is going soooo fast.

Hey terps, know anything about this new "cmdterpslover" person that signed up?

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #59: April 12, 2010, 02:03:58 PM »
Anyone have access to a line up optimizer program?  I'd be curious what the optimum batting order for this group of players would be.  I'm at work and can't fit in all the probabilities on the one I googled (http://www.sportsquant.com/simbaseball.htm)  Just a guess, but a line up like this I think might be what it'd spit out:

Morgan
Desmond
Guzman
Dunn
Willingham
Pudge
Kennedy
Marquis
Taveras


According to this lineup optimizer, the regular Nats lineup most optimal lineup based off of last year's numbers (Desmond is career numbers) is 5.19 runs per game:
Dunn
Zimmerman
Harris
Desmond
Willingham
Pudge
Kennedy
Pitcher
Morgan

Based off of your lineup it is 4.65 runs:
Morgan
Dunn
Kennedy
Desmond
Willingham
Pudge
Guzman
Pitcher
Taveras

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=morgan&OBA0=+0.369&Slug0=+0.388&Player1=kennedy&OBA1=+0.348&Slug1=+0.410&Player2=Guzman&OBA2=+0.306&Slug2=+0.390&Player3=dunn&OBA3=+0.398&Slug3=+0.529&Player4=willingham&OBA4=+0.367&Slug4=+0.496&Player5=taveras&OBA5=+0.275&Slug5=+0.285&Player6=pudge&OBA6=+0.280&Slug6=+0.384&Player7=desmond&OBA7=+0.330&Slug7=+0.566&Player8=p&OBA8=+0.150&Slug8=+0.175&Model=0

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #60: April 12, 2010, 02:14:40 PM »
LOL at Dunn leading off.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #61: April 12, 2010, 02:22:54 PM »
LOL at Dunn leading off.

He'd really clog up the basepaths :D

Offline natsfan4evr

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #62: April 12, 2010, 02:23:20 PM »
LOL at Dunn leading off.
He's only on top due to his high walk ratio

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #63: April 12, 2010, 02:28:31 PM »
I found the Baseball Musings line up optimization tool and plugged in the Marcel projections for OBP and SLG to see what it spit out as the optimum batting order.

Rigg's lineup is projectd to score 4.517.  The 30 best lineups are projected to score between 4.623 and 4.638 runs.

All of the 30 best line ups had Morgan leading off.  That is interesting because it did not factor in baserunning.

28 had Dunn batting second, 2 had Willingham.

13 had Guzman batting third, including 3 of the 5 best.  9 had Desmond, 4 had Willingham, kennedy and Pudge were 3d in two each.  

16 had Willingham batting 4th, 8 had Desmond, 4 had Guzman, 2 had Dunn.

13 had Desmond batting 5th.  That makes Desmond 3, 4 or 5 in all of the optimized orders. 8 had Willingham, 7 had Guzman, 1 had Rodriguez, 1 had kennedy.

Marquis?  Most common spot in the order was . . . 6th (19 out of the top 30, 7 out of the 8 best line ups).

29 out of 30 had Taveras batting 9th; the outlier was Kennedy.

Offline EdStroud

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #64: April 12, 2010, 02:29:19 PM »
According to this lineup optimizer, the regular Nats lineup most optimal lineup based off of last year's numbers (Desmond is career numbers) is 5.19 runs per game:
Dunn
Zimmerman
Harris
Desmond
Willingham
Pudge
Kennedy
Pitcher
Morgan

Based off of your lineup it is 4.65 runs:
Morgan
Dunn
Kennedy
Desmond
Willingham
Pudge
Guzman
Pitcher
Taveras

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=morgan&OBA0=+0.369&Slug0=+0.388&Player1=kennedy&OBA1=+0.348&Slug1=+0.410&Player2=Guzman&OBA2=+0.306&Slug2=+0.390&Player3=dunn&OBA3=+0.398&Slug3=+0.529&Player4=willingham&OBA4=+0.367&Slug4=+0.496&Player5=taveras&OBA5=+0.275&Slug5=+0.285&Player6=pudge&OBA6=+0.280&Slug6=+0.384&Player7=desmond&OBA7=+0.330&Slug7=+0.566&Player8=p&OBA8=+0.150&Slug8=+0.175&Model=0
looks like a very valuable tool

Offline natsfan4evr

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #65: April 12, 2010, 02:29:32 PM »
Does anyone know if Tim Dirkes reads here? I've been having issues with MLB Trade Rumors for a few days now. Anyone else?

Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #66: April 12, 2010, 02:31:01 PM »
JimBo is on XM 175 right now giving out advice on how to pick up chicks.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #67: April 12, 2010, 02:31:25 PM »
Does anyone know if Tim Dirkes reads here? I've been having issues with MLB Trade Rumors for a few days now. Anyone else?

He's a registered member with several posts to his credit, as a matter of fact.  I haven't been to MLBTR in about a week myself so I can't comment on that.

Tried just now, received "An error occurred. Please wait a few minutes and try your request again. "

Offline natsfan4evr

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #68: April 12, 2010, 02:32:18 PM »
JimBo is on XM 175 right now giving out advice on how to pick up chicks.
Hopefully he makes a better wingman than a GM

Offline CJames0569

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #69: April 12, 2010, 02:33:12 PM »
Does anyone know if Tim Dirkes reads here? I've been having issues with MLB Trade Rumors for a few days now. Anyone else?

I was on it earlier today, and I noticed that their redesigned page has been a little buggy lately. All it takes for me is a couple page refreshes and I'm good.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #70: April 12, 2010, 02:33:55 PM »
JimBo is on XM 175 right now giving out advice on how to pick up chicks.

Then GHB is sure to be mentioned.

Offline natsfan4evr

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #71: April 12, 2010, 02:34:01 PM »
He's a registered member with several posts to his credit, as a matter of fact.  I haven't been to MLBTR in about a week myself so I can't comment on that.
I know he's registered, just not sure if he reads here. I love his site, but it's been slow as molasses lately. Now it won't load at all.

Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #72: April 12, 2010, 02:34:44 PM »
Alfonso Soriano got booed at Wrigley during the line-up announcements of the Cubs home opener today and got "mock cheered" when he caught a routine pop-up in outfield. :lol:

Offline EdStroud

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #73: April 12, 2010, 02:35:25 PM »
JimBo is on XM 175 right now giving out advice on how to pick up chicks.
New Book; How to get girls and underachieving right fielders By Jim Bowden

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Phillies, Game 1
« Reply #74: April 12, 2010, 02:38:07 PM »
I know he's registered, just not sure if he reads here. I love his site, but it's been slow as molasses lately. Now it won't load at all.

He registered March 12th and was last logged in April 1st.  Whether he has visited the site without logging in since then, I don't know.