Author Topic: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 1  (Read 26488 times)

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Offline tomterp

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Re: Fire Riggleman
« Reply #600: April 05, 2010, 09:48:37 PM »
I didn't have a problem trying to sacrifice Morgan to third in the first inning after he stole the base.  

You should, because giving up an out to move a runner from scoring position to scoring position is counter productive.

In 2009, teams with no outs and a runner on second scored 1.1415 runs on average.  Teams with a runner on 3rd and one out, scored 0.96548 runs on average, so the strategy you advocate would result in fewer runs scored than just swinging way, over the course of a season.

Source:  BP Run Expectations table:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=68778