O-Dog (Orlando Hudson)

[blue911]

There is no weighting.

They just add in the four components and that's the total RAR.

Each of the components is weighted. Explain them.

[blue911]

Linty, My beef isn't with you but each of the components requires us to believe that the weighing to accurate.

[Lintyfresh85]

Batting - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-one

Fielding - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-two

Replacement - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four

Positional - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

I can't really explain it as well as you'd like... but those tell why each is what it is.

[blue911]

Batting - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-one

Fielding - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-two

Replacement - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four

Positional - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

I can't really explain it as well as you'd like... but those tell why each is what it is.

No formulas & no explanation of how the weighing was reached.

[tomterp]

After looking at Guzman, and seeing that his RAR is 9.3 (less than a win), cut his ass and sign a 2B. He had a dreadful offensive season in 2009.

No way!  Once before he's had his shoulder overhauled and returned zipping liners to all corners of the ballpark.  I'm not predicting any such thing this time, but still, if there's even a 15% chance that he'll be improved, then bring him back, put him out there and hope he gets hot enough to be tradeable.  When healthy Guzman can hit well over .300 for long stretches of time, and there's some trade value in that.

[PANatsFan]

No way!  Once before he's had his shoulder overhauled and returned zipping liners to all corners of the ballpark.  I'm not predicting any such thing this time, but still, if there's even a 15% chance that he'll be improved, then bring him back, put him out there and hope he gets hot enough to be tradeable.  When healthy Guzman can hit well over .300 for long stretches of time, and there's some trade value in that.

He did that this year, and look at how many runs his offense is worth. Yup, negative.

[PANatsFan]

No formulas & no explanation of how the weighing was reached.

At lot of these Fangraphs numbers are normalized pretty meticulously so you can just added them, i.e. equal weighting.

[tomterp]

He did that this year, and look at how many runs his offense is worth. Yup, negative.

How do you know how many runs his offense is worth in 2010?

[PANatsFan]

How do you know how many runs his offense is worth in 2010?

Was there supposed to be some resemblence of humor in that question?

[blue911]

At lot of these Fangraphs numbers are normalized pretty meticulously so you can just added them, i.e. equal weighting.

Not true. Look at the weights applied to Fenway. The idea of linear weights is to normalize stats between to disparate players, not to impose arbitrary penalties.

[tomterp]

Was there supposed to be some resemblence of humor in that question?

I think your question confused me.  You referred to "this year", which is 2010, a season yet to be played. 

Did you mean 2009?  Okay, whatever.   What was he worth in 2007, coming off his last shoulder deal?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Woah, woah, woah.

You of all people should know that bolded part isn't even remotely true.

These stats are from your (and my) favorite website Fangraphs.

Offensive runs above average based on park adjusted wOBA (basically, how many runs his bat is better than the average player)

couple of things - I do not buy that pre-Lasik Guzman is the same offensive player as post, so I only judge him from 2007 on.  Last year, he played with multiple injuries in the 2d half.  I think his new normal is as high BABIP guy, in the .325+ range. That's a huge discount off of 2007, 2008, and the first half of 2009. I peg him at closer to a .325 OBP guy. Figure a wOBA around .320.  Below average, but not by much. 

Hudson, OTOH, is above average.  No dispute.  CHONE projects him as 2 runs above average, and Guz as 5.9 below.  Goose up Guz's projection if you discount older numbers and the second half, maybe he is minus 3 runs.  IOW, .5 WAR on hitting.  Like I said, not too significant.  It is not 20 runs or so.  And I really believe Guz will be a better fielder, at least on UZR, at 2d next year. 

[tomterp]

couple of things - I do not buy that pre-Lasik Guzman is the same offensive player as post, so I only judge him from 2007 on. 

That's pretty much where I am on this.  He couldn't see and he had a torn labrum in 2005.  Both got fixed and he was a dramatically better player in 2007.  Not saying he's great, or even average, but close to it probably.  Get his shoulder overhauled and his bunions fixed  and put him out there to earn his $8m.  And if he doesn't bench him and put Desminosa in, but give him the chance to contribute and create some value.

[PANatsFan]

I think your question confused me.  You referred to "this year", which is 2010, a season yet to be played. 

Did you mean 2009?  Okay, whatever.   What was he worth in 2007, coming off his last shoulder deal?

Sorry I thought you were being a smartass. I have no idea what day or month it is, ever, even though I always have a rough idea of what time is. I think I'm an idiot savant.

Yeah, in 2009 he was worth negative runs compared to an average player.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=728&position=SS#value
In 2007 and 2008 he was worth less offensively than 46 games of Nyjer Morgan. He sucks. I just didn't realize it. His -13 runs in 2009 are why he should be sitting at home counting his money come early April.


http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=728&position=SS#value

[PANatsFan]

Not true. Look at the weights applied to Fenway. The idea of linear weights is to normalize stats between to disparate players, not to impose arbitrary penalties.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-problem-with-position-adjusted-stats/

This was the first questionable assertion I found, so I'll easily grant you there are others. But if you were asking how they weight those four categories, I would guess 1:1:1:1.

[The Chief]

Whenever I look at Fangraphs I feel like I've walked in on a game of D&D.  No offense to D&D.

[blue911]

This was the first questionable assertion I found, so I'll easily grant you there are others. But if you were asking how they weight those four categories, I would guess 1:1:1:1.

No I want to know what weights are used in each of the ratings. I know that leftfield putouts in Fenway are worth less than the same freaking outs at the Trop. That isn't a weight that's a penalty!.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Where will Espinoza start, what level?

This question got lost in the shuffle.

Based on the fact that he did fairly well at A+ last year and was in the AFL this year (and did well there too), I'd say it's almost a certainty that he'll begin at AA.

[DPMOmaha]

This question got lost in the shuffle.

Based on the fact that he did fairly well at A+ last year and was in the AFL this year (and did well there too), I'd say it's almost a certainty that he'll begin at AA.

I guess the reason I ask, is because it was kind of alluded to, but the thought of having Desmond and Espinoza in AAA for a year together, might be appealing to the FO to see what they have in the two of them together.  Where they could see how they play together, and which one is better for what position, those sorts of things.  We can live with Guz for one more year, bring in Hudson or Kennedy for a year or two and see what how these guys work together.  I don't know if Espinoza is ready for that level yet or not.

Just a thought.

[PatsNats28]

No formulas & no explanation of how the weighing was reached.

I can explain wOBA to you, which when multiplied by a constant or two, gives you wRAA, which is the statistic used to judge batting skill there.

[sportsfan882]

I guess the reason I ask, is because it was kind of alluded to, but the thought of having Desmond and Espinoza in AAA for a year together, might be appealing to the FO to see what they have in the two of them together.  Where they could see how they play together, and which one is better for what position, those sorts of things.  We can live with Guz for one more year, bring in Hudson or Kennedy for a year or two and see what how these guys work together.  I don't know if Espinoza is ready for that level yet or not.

Just a thought.

It's Espinosa.

AA is not much different than AAA. AA features better prospects.

Desmond is not a secondbaseman. I can't see them playing in the same infield anytime soon.

Espinosa will start the season in AA and Desmond will be either in AAA or MLB.

[JMW IV]

T. Plush says "bring on teh O-Dog."

its on Nationals.com

[tomterp]

T. Plush says "bring on teh O-Dog."

He needs to learn how to spell "the".

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Desmond is not a secondbaseman.

His point is that you should try both of them at second base to see who fits better where.

I think we're just going to have to trade one of them eventually.  Rarely do you see teams try to switch the defensive position of one guy who has potential to play capable SS, let alone two.  I totally get the reasoning behind it, but I think the Nats want to give themselves the best possible chance of having a top-notch SS and won't risk it by prematurely switching them over to 2B.

[sportsfan882]

I saw enough from ID at 2B last year to know that SS is his position.

Moving Espinosa there isn't a bad idea but he is more valuable at SS.

I think both will start the year in AA (DE) and AAA (ID) and we'll see where it goes from there.

I'd hate to trade either guy but if one guy establishes himself in the Majors and proves he can play we would definitely consider trading the other guy.