2010 Pitching Staff MLB/AAA

[Potomac Cannons]

After what we've seen/heard so far this offseason here's what I perceive as the most likely scenario, pertaining to our pitching staff, heading into the season. 

The MLB staff:

SP1--Lannan
SP2--FA (Garland)
SP3--Olsen
SP4--Detwiler
SP5--Stammen

LR--Estrada, Chico
MR--Bergmann, Clippard
SU--Burnett, Bruney
CL--FA (Capps)

AAA:
SP1--Martin
SP2--Strasburg
SP3--Martis
SP4--Mock
SP5--Balester

I'm not sure where to go with the AAA BP.  I'm assuming Storen, Wilkie, Spradlin, Mandel, Garate are in the mix, but Mandel could be a starter at AA with Thompson, Atilano, Meyers, Arnesen etc.

I'd rather a 2nd FA SP and RP be signed, Estrada and Stammen starting in AAA, and Strasburg in AA, but I don't think that is very likely.

As far as that bullpen goes, we've got two swing guys in the long relief spots (Estrada had 3 solid relief appearances in September last year and solid numbers as a starter at AAA), two guys who don't let inherited runners score in middle relief, a legit set-up guy and a set-up guy with good stuff who is wild, and a legit closer.

Our starters include two legit MLB lefties, an innings eater who won't be tremendously expensive, our best starter in September and our best overall young starter from last year.  It gives the rest of the young guys who have potential time to work as a rotation in Syracuse and be ready while having emergency starter cover with Estrade and Chico.

It's not great, but it is better than the past two years and it shows young guys stacking up at AA/AAA who have legit MLB potential, even if it is only in relief, who are going to have to start forcing their way to higher levels.

[UMDNats]

Until we actually acquire a quality pitcher I'm not going to assume we get one. We all want one but who knows if we actually get one.

Other than that I'm not going to disagree with anything.

[NatsDad14]

If we have to rely on Marco Estrada for anything on the big league level next year, we should just concede the season already.

[Nathan]

If we have to rely on Marco Estrada for anything on the big league level next year, we should just concede the season already.

I thought we already had

[Potomac Cannons]

If we have to rely on Marco Estrada for anything on the big league level next year, we should just concede the season already.

So....being a long reliever/mop-up guy isn't something he can do?  He's 27 in July, His K/9, WHIP and FIP were all above average as a AAA starter last year.  He had a bad first appearance for the Nats and then 3 good relief appearances.  If he earns a spot, and it would be primarily eating an inning or two on days when Lannan or one of the youngsters gets knocked out early, then let him do it and keep the service days of the better prospects at a minimum.

[NatsDad14]

I thought we already had

We just gave the guy 1 meaningless start in September. If he plays all year, we can officially call Stan Kasten's plan a failure.

[balzig777]

After what we've seen/heard so far this offseason here's what I perceive as the most likely scenario, pertaining to our pitching staff, heading into the season. 

The MLB staff:

SP1--Lannan
SP2--FA (Garland)
SP3--Olsen
SP4--Detwiler
SP5--Stammen

LR--Estrada, Chico
MR--Bergmann, Clippard
SU--Burnett, Bruney
CL--FA (Capps)

AAA:
SP1--Martin
SP2--Strasburg
SP3--Martis
SP4--Mock
SP5--Balester

I'm not sure where to go with the AAA BP.  I'm assuming Storen, Wilkie, Spradlin, Mandel, Garate are in the mix, but Mandel could be a starter at AA with Thompson, Atilano, Meyers, Arnesen etc.

I'd rather a 2nd FA SP and RP be signed, Estrada and Stammen starting in AAA, and Strasburg in AA, but I don't think that is very likely.

As far as that bullpen goes, we've got two swing guys in the long relief spots (Estrada had 3 solid relief appearances in September last year and solid numbers as a starter at AAA), two guys who don't let inherited runners score in middle relief, a legit set-up guy and a set-up guy with good stuff who is wild, and a legit closer.

Our starters include two legit MLB lefties, an innings eater who won't be tremendously expensive, our best starter in September and our best overall young starter from last year.  It gives the rest of the young guys who have potential time to work as a rotation in Syracuse and be ready while having emergency starter cover with Estrade and Chico.

It's not great, but it is better than the past two years and it shows young guys stacking up at AA/AAA who have legit MLB potential, even if it is only in relief, who are going to have to start forcing their way to higher levels.

sounds great, whats next weeks lotto numbers?

[Potomac Cannons]

We just gave the guy 1 meaningless start in September. If he plays all year, we can officially call Stan Kasten's plan a failure.

Way to ignore the three quality relief appearances and the yearly development through the minors.  I think he's a mop-up reliever.  That's a legitimate role that saves service days on the arbitration clocks for guys like Martin, Mock, Balester, Stras etc.  Not sure you want to bother with the facts but it would help if you didn't just ignore the parts that don't fit what you want to believe.

[Nathan]

We just gave the guy 1 meaningless start in September. If he plays all year, we can officially call Stan Kasten's plan a failure.

I meant we've already conceded next season.

[imref]

i'd bet a buck Clippard takes the closer role at some point next year.  Most teams get a real mean looking closer (Jenks, Broxton, Franklin, etc.), we get Clippard's glasses to psyche out the opposing hitters in the 9th.

Otherwise, the starting line-up you list should be good for at least 60 wins.

[Potomac Cannons]

i'd bet a buck Clippard takes the closer role at some point next year.  Most teams get a real mean looking closer (Jenks, Broxton, Franklin, etc.), we get Clippard's glasses to psyche out the opposing hitters in the 9th.

Otherwise, the starting line-up you list should be good for at least 60 wins.

That's a 70 win team and I think Clippard could get there if Capps isn't signed.  I'm guessing Bruney, even if it isn't deserved, gets the first shot ahead of Clippard if Capps is the primary closer.

I do really like the goofy psycho look Clippard has going.

[NatsDad14]

Way to ignore the three quality relief appearances and the yearly development through the minors.  I think he's a mop-up reliever.  That's a legitimate role that saves service days on the arbitration clocks for guys like Martin, Mock, Balester, Stras etc.  Not sure you want to bother with the facts but it would help if you didn't just ignore the parts that don't fit what you want to believe.

I'm surprised a stats guy like you would cite a 5 inning sample. Let's look at those 3 outings:

vs. Phi- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R:
faced the 6-7-8 hitters (Francisco, Feliz, Ruiz)

vs. LAD- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (inherited run scored), 1 K
Relieved Livan Hernandez. men on 1st and 2nd, he allows a double to James Loney which scores both runners. Then he strikes out Casey Blake to end the inning. The next inning he faces the 7-8-9 batters. He allows a hit a single to Russell Martin who gets bunted over to 2nd by the Kuroda (pitcher). Inning ends on a ground out by Furcal.

vs. LAD-  2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R (unearned), 1 BB, 4 K
Faces the entire Dodger lineup. Strikes out the side in his 1st inning. Allows an unearned run because of an error by one of the fielders.

He wasn't anything special in the first 2 outings and had a decent 3rd outing. Basically you think he is a bullpen option based off of 1 2.1 IP sample.

[NatsDad14]

btw, Marco Estrada is a right hander, not a Lefty. If you are looking for a lefty, it will probably be Doug Slaten.

[blue911]

I'm surprised a stats guy like you would cite a 5 inning sample. Let's look at those 3 innings:

vs. Phi- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R:
faced the 6-7-8 hitters (Francisco, Feliz, Ruiz)

vs. LAD- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (inherited run scored), 1 K
Relieved Livan Hernandez. men on 1st and 2nd, he allows a double to James Loney which scores both runners. Then he strikes out Casey Blake to end the inning. The next inning he faces the 7-8-9 batters. He allows a hit a single to Russell Martin who gets bunted over to 2nd by the Kuroda (pitcher). Inning ends on a ground out by Furcal.

vs. LAD-  2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R (unearned), 1 BB, 4 K
Faces the entire Dodger lineup. Strikes out the side in his 1st inning. Allows an unearned run because of an error by one of the fielders.

He wasn't anything special in the first 2 outings and had a decent 3rd outing. Basically you think he is a bullpen option based off of 1 2.1 IP sample.

Nice job of looking behind the stats.

[PANatsFan]

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091216&content_id=7819746&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was


Balester willing to relieve. Good attitude. That book by Jaeger he is reading intrigued me enough to pick up a copy. It's out of print with no electronic edition, unfortunately.

[cmdterps44]

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091216&content_id=7819746&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was


Balester willing to relieve. Good attitude. That book by Jaeger he is reading intrigued me enough to pick up a copy. It's out of print with no electronic edition, unfortunately.

I guess Blah Blahson won the back and forth twitter feed?

[PANatsFan]

I guess Blah Blahson won the back and forth twitter feed?

Yeah, or Balester is a team-first guy.

[Potomac Cannons]

I'm surprised a stats guy like you would cite a 5 inning sample. Let's look at those 3 outings:

vs. Phi- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R:
faced the 6-7-8 hitters (Francisco, Feliz, Ruiz)

vs. LAD- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (inherited run scored), 1 K
Relieved Livan Hernandez. men on 1st and 2nd, he allows a double to James Loney which scores both runners. Then he strikes out Casey Blake to end the inning. The next inning he faces the 7-8-9 batters. He allows a hit a single to Russell Martin who gets bunted over to 2nd by the Kuroda (pitcher). Inning ends on a ground out by Furcal.

vs. LAD-  2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R (unearned), 1 BB, 4 K
Faces the entire Dodger lineup. Strikes out the side in his 1st inning. Allows an unearned run because of an error by one of the fielders.

He wasn't anything special in the first 2 outings and had a decent 3rd outing. Basically you think he is a bullpen option based off of 1 2.1 IP sample.

That's exactly the role/purpose he would be up for.  Those 3.2 IP starts that our guys are going to throw out there occasionally, getting through the bottom of the lineup a time or two, and generally giving the better relievers days off  while keeping the younger guys from wasting their service time so we can keep them under team control as long as possible during their development.  He was solid in AAA last year.  Why not give him a shot as a mop-up reliever this year?

[Potomac Cannons]

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091216&content_id=7819746&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was


Balester willing to relieve. Good attitude. That book by Jaeger he is reading intrigued me enough to pick up a copy. It's out of print with no electronic edition, unfortunately.

Pretty good maturity from a 23 year old.  Glad we've got guys with that kind of attitude.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Been a while since this thread was bumped, but there has been a series in Fangraphs suggesting that minor league righty sinker ball pitchers might be the most underrated type of playing prospect.  What this guy shows is that these players, who he defines as >50% GBs and <15% LDs, tend to have very consistent performance.  As they move up, the hitters get better but so does the defense, so they tend to maintain their ERAs.  I will not summarize all of the articles, but will just link the first, the second, and the third.  

To relate this to the Nats, it seems like Craig Stammen fits the profile.  Here are his minor league splits:

               IP    FIP     BF H     2B HR  W  IW K GDP     AVG BABIP WHIP W/9 K/9 HR/9   GB% LD% FB%     IF/F  HR/F
Overall  492.0 3.96  2021 503 114 37 151 4 355 49  0.271 0.318 1.33 2.76 6.49 0.68  54.3% 14.0% 29.5% 11.3% 8.0%

The 54% / 14% GB / LD split is right in line with this guy's analysis.  It has been pretty consistent with what he did all the way along, even when his ERA was popping around.  It also is not too far off his MLB performance.  I was not too high on Stammen last year, but this might mean he has a better future than analysis that looks at K rate and stuff suggest.

[blue911]

JCA- You remind me of King Pellinore in The Once and Future King.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

JCA- You remind me of King Pellinore in The Once and Future King.

You've got me beat.  All I can say is "What?"

[houston-nat]

JCA, I thought that was a really cool post. He says he's looking for the next batch of guys to fit this description and will post about them tomorrow; it will be interesting to see what, if any, comment is made about Craig Stammen.

[PatsNats28]

Meyers is someone like that too, unfortunately I couldn't find his GB%.

[blue911]

You've got me beat.  All I can say is "What?"

Your Questing Beast is the perfect stat. And you get a lot of fewmets along the way.