2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[HalfSmokes]

I guess the important thing is that Dye won a World Series, so we know sportsfan will approve of him as a Winner.

is Marquis a winner- he wasn't on the roster, but he was on the team?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

DPM - there are some who think Dye really cannot field anymore.  Fangraphs I think have him as one the bottom 5 OFs but better than Dunn.  Not saying that's right, but it is just one analysis.  As for his offense, it has been up and down over past 4 years or so.  I think if he were a $3m ballplayer, less than what Abreu received last year, he might be worth a shot as an every day guy for a team with a good back up defensive corner OF.  But I don't think he is worth what Abreu's desperate contract was because he is not as consistent an offensive performer and probably worse defensively.

On his defense blues and offensive streakiness:

Dye has been an enigma at the plate the past few seasons, posting a .417 wOBA in 2006, then a .343 in 2007 followed by a rebound back up to .376 and then a downfall back to .344 this past season. In the field, however, it’s been a smoothly consistent four years of suck. Dye’s UZRs in that time frame: -22.5, -21.6, -19.4 and -18.7. Hey, he’s improving! By 2025, he’ll be up to average.

Seriously, though, he flat out stinks and his unpredictable offense makes him a poor overall value. If he could mash like he did in 2006, that would be one thing; he managed a 3.2 WAR that year. But since then, he’s been worth 0.9 WAR combined in three seasons as his bat has dropped off.

On his potential value:

We checked out right field this week and found that once again the outfield provides serious value late in the rankings. Jermaine Dye, the fourteenth-ranked outfielder in those rankings, is a good bet for close to 30 home runs and a decent batting average next year.

Most of his value is in his predictable power.  I think I'd rather have Maxwell in the OF at this point in his career.  Much better glove, decent power, with less of a chance of an explosive upside offensively.

[DPMOmaha]

Ok, just throwing out there, thanks, JCA.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ok, just throwing out there, thanks, JCA.

An interesting enough idea to be worth thinking about and some comment. Dye has been a real star and I don't recall anyone ever being critical of him personally. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Apologies to PatsNats. epicphalanx, nathan and others about a post yesterday.  It turns out I was wrong about xFIP.  It is like PatsNats says and does not account for the babip components of LD, flies, and GBs.  My fault for doing this from memory and not checkign the definition, which is on the hardball times glossary. Maybe a new year's resolution should be to check definitions before reciting them.  Sorry.

[PatsNats28]

Apologies to PatsNats. epicphalanx, nathan and others about a post yesterday.  It turns out I was wrong about xFIP.  It is like PatsNats says and does not account for the babip components of LD, flies, and GBs.  My fault for doing this from memory and not checkign the definition, which is on the hardball times glossary. Maybe a new year's resolution should be to check definitions before reciting them.  Sorry.

Apology accepted. I now revert back to disliking FIP and all forms of it.

Other thing is that technically, the pitcher doesn't really control home runs because it depends on the park, and BBs/Ks depend on the umpire (although that's hard to quantify statistically). Maybe you could adjust it based upon the umps strike zone.

It would be great if a new age statistic incorporated the quality of the opponent. So that when you're facing Zack Greinke and you hit a home run, it counts more than if you hit a home run off of Saul Rivera.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's bit of a mystery as to why it is a better predictor of future ERA than prior year's ERA or FIP or even advanced stats that take account of the type of contact and split flies between infield and outfield, but that is supposedly what the data show.

If you are interested in an advanced stat that account for types of contact, you may want to look at tRA (believe it stands for true Runs Allowed, but the darn link does not explain the abbreviation; I'd never let my clients write that way).

I like the caution about the advanced stats.  It makes you think of John Lannan causing confusion by his success.

One thing to note is that all of these are component ERAs, which means that they calculate an estimated ERA (or RA) based upon a pitcher's components. This, for one matter, strips out a lot of "luck," if we want to define luck as timing. In other words, an inning that looks like:

Walk, Strikeout, Groundout, Home Run, Strikeout

has a very different result than

Home Run, Strikeout, Walk, Strikeout, Groundout

even though the pitcher had a roughly equivelent performance. That's typically "luck" or "noise," and over time it cancels out.

But does it always? Perhaps not. There are talents, such as the ability to pitch well out of the stretch, or the ability to induce more grounders in double play situations, that may not being accounted for here. In those cases, we're simply throwing the baby out with the bathwater—discarding talent along with noise.

And for a value metric, we don't much care to wipe out all the noise that comes with a pitcher's performance, simply to neutralize the effect of a pitcher's defense on his performance.

[PatsNats28]

I like that tRA stat. It should be used more than like stupid FIP.

[JMW IV]

what exactly is tRA?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

what exactly is tRA?

The link below could probably explain it better than I could.  Essentially, it layers in infield and outfield fly rates, groundball, and line drive rates into the same things that go into FIP (K, BB, and HBP rates plus HR/FB), gives each hitting event a weight based on the likelihood of scoring before and after the event, and calculates how many runs should be charged to the pitcher.  There's also a regression to the mean that is more powerful the fewer innings pitched (that makes sense - less track record, less weight on the sample).

http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html

For what it is worth, I'm getting more skeptical about all of these better than ERA methods of predicting future runs allowed.  ERA is bad as a predictor of the future (Wyers article about a 2.3 runs, plus or minus), but the best of the others has a margin for error around 1.75 runs when you are working with 30 IP, and gets to .75 around 110 IP.

[PatsNats28]

I don't care about predicting the future. I like stats that evaluate perfomance, and allow the user to predict what will happen based on trends.

[tomterp]

I don't care about predicting the future. I like stats that evaluate perfomance, and allow the user to predict what will happen based on trends.

This seems quite contradictory. 

In my opinion, the primary purpose of historical statistical analysis is to attempt to predict the future, because the clearer the crystal ball, the more certainty that a team properly constructed will perform to the level anticipated.  So yes, the objective IS to predict the future, and any tools available that help should be employed.

[PatsNats28]

This seems quite contradictory. 

In my opinion, the primary purpose of historical statistical analysis is to attempt to predict the future, because the clearer the crystal ball, the more certainty that a team properly constructed will perform to the level anticipated.  So yes, the objective IS to predict the future, and any tools available that help should be employed.

That's not what I meant. I mean I like having the stats, like saying he has a decreasing K/9 rate in the last three years, and then coming to my own conclusions rather than someone telling me what his stats will be.

[tomterp]

That's not what I meant. I mean I like having the stats, like saying he has a decreasing K/9 rate in the last three years, and then coming to my own conclusions rather than someone telling me what his stats will be.

Ok, I get what you mean.  For any given player, we all like to use our observations and experience to make forward looking guesses.  But for 800 players or more, it's nice to have some systems around (like BP's PECOTA) to help fill in the gaps and sanity check your own estimates.

[Spinman]

 

Seriously, we don't find out about things with this team until they happen.  Who had any idea about Pudge? 

I don't even know if the players even know too much ahead of time. You can be a National today and a Yankee tomorrow. 

[Nathan]

I don't even know if the players even know too much ahead of time. You can be a National today and a Yankee tomorrow. 

Is that some sort of inside information about a trade about to happen?

[Spinman]

Is that some sort of inside information about a trade about to happen?

No! I do know thats what the players have said from past deals. Don't forget Merv Rettenmund, who played for the Orioles and Reds in the 60's and 70's was a cousin of ours. We got a bunch of info from him.

[houston-nat]

Bill Ladson just Tweeted that the Nationals are interested in Orlando Hudson, but only if he's a bargain. I replied asking what kind of bargain they're looking for, or how much he's demanding. Don't know if Bill will notice...

[tomterp]

Bill Ladson just Tweeted that the Nationals are interested in Orlando Hudson, but only if he's a bargain. I replied asking what kind of bargain they're looking for, or how much he's demanding. Don't know if Bill will notice...

You're not going to get that sort of info out of anybody.  Closely guarded for competitive reasons.

[houston-nat]

You're not going to get that sort of info out of anybody.  Closely guarded for competitive reasons.

My tweet...

@washingnats we hear the Nats don't want to break the bank on both Hudson and Smoltz. Heard J.S. wants $8m; any idea what O.H. is asking?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Lerners have offered O-Dog the Hudson.  He wants the Bay, they offered the portion of the river that is being dredged for PCBs.

[houston-nat]

Rizzo said he is not finished when it comes to improving the Nationals. Rizzo is looking for starting pitching and to get better on defense. The Nationals finished 16th in the National League in ERA [5.00], while leading the Majors in errors with 143.

"We are never finished," Rizzo said. "We feel the club still has a lot of deficiencies. We never forget the fact that we won only 59 games last year. I don't want to go through that again -- ever.

"We can never get enough talented players and you can never get enough pitching. We are still going to remain busy up until Spring Training, through Spring Training and through the season to improve the club for 2010 and beyond."

http://therocket.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/01/nationals_tidbits_for_wednesda.html

[Lintyfresh85]

Doug Davis would be nice. So would Pineiro!

[tomterp]

Doug Davis would be nice. So would Pineiro!

Phillies are chasing both Piniero and Sheets, probably looking to sign only one.

[JMW IV]

so we sign the other guy.