2010 Offseason Wheeling and Dealing

[DPMOmaha]

I'll take talent over experience.  I'm also beginning to wonder what the point signing two FA starters would be.  Is it going to turn us into contenders?  Doubtful.  How much better would they make us?  5 games?  10 games?  15 games?  more?  Would it be better, long term, to bring in Smoltz only and let the young arms sit under his tutelage for a year or two and mature and then go after a big name in the next year or two when we might be ready to contend?  Unless you're going to bring in 3 guys, I'm not sure it's worth spending on just one.  3 guys could, with this offense, put us right there come August.  But I don't think the FO will go that far.

[PANatsFan]

Can I smoke pot with you?

You'll have to settle for a bowl of plain rice and a glass of milk

[sportsfan882]

Well this is the first time I've really been in to a team enough to follow an offseason closely.  Became a fan 2008 but didn't follow as closely as this year.

Agreed about Dukes, but that is not as big of a worry as the pitching.

Yeah, we usually get pumped on here every year during the Nats' off-season and predict 80+ wins and are hopes are always dashed by the middle of April.

I'll take talent over experience.  I'm also beginning to wonder what the point signing two FA starters would be.  Is it going to turn us into contenders?  Doubtful.  How much better would they make us?  5 games?  10 games?  15 games?  more?  Would it be better, long term, to bring in Smoltz only and let the young arms sit under his tutelage for a year or two and mature and then go after a big name in the next year or two when we might be ready to contend?  Unless you're going to bring in 3 guys, I'm not sure it's worth spending on just one.  3 guys could, with this offense, put us right there come August.  But I don't think the FO will go that far.

We aren't going to bring in 3. There aren't 3 out there that are all that great anyways. I think you have to bring at the minimum 1 guy like a Jon Garland to eat innings and help mentor the younger guys.

I am really not sure what the Nats are thinking really. They said they want to move Balester and Stammen to the pen. Then who does that leave fighting for rotation spots? Garrett Mock? J.D. Martin? Ross Detwiler?

[sportsfan882]

You'll have to settle for a bowl of plain rice and a glass of milk

[DPMOmaha]

We aren't going to bring in 3. There aren't 3 out there that are all that great anyways. I think you have to bring at the minimum 1 guy like a Jon Garland to eat innings and help mentor the younger guys.

I am really not sure what the Nats are thinking really. They said they want to move Balester and Stammen to the pen. Then who does that leave fighting for rotation spots? Garrett Mock? J.D. Martin? Ross Detwiler?

Baloney.  If they said screw it and went out and got Garland, Doug Davis and Durcherer or Marquis combined with Lannan and any one of the young guys or eventually SS, you could make a run at the Wild card with the offense we've got right now.  I don't think they'll do that though.   You wouldn't have a true#1, but you'd have 4 #2's and that's tough to contend with.  I don't know if it'd win in the playoffs, but if you're in it at the deadline, you could certainly make a move.  I'm just sayin, the arms are out there if they really wanted to do it while letting the young arms still get experience, but I don't think any of us think they'll actually do it.  Ben Sheets is still out there too.  


And since you asked, here's what I'd do:
I'd sign Garland for 3 years, Davis for 2 years and Sheets for 1.  After next year, you see if you can get Sheets to stick around, if not, you should have SS ready to go, he'll have been up for half of 09 already.  The year after that, Detwiler should be seasoned enough to jump in and in 3 years there should be a whole host of options.  Lannan will be signed to an extension and you should have a pretty solid rotation at that point.  That's what I'd do.  But, I don't think they're gonna ask me for my opinion.

[sportsfan882]

Doug Davis, Garland, etc. aren't #2s on good teams. Maybe #4s.

Nats will settle for 1 and then probably Livan.

It is up to the young pitchers to get their crap together and have success in the Majors this season.

[DPMOmaha]

Doug Davis, Garland, etc. aren't #2s on good teams. Maybe #4s.

Nats will settle for 1 and then probably Livan.

It is up to the young pitchers to get their crap together and have success in the Majors this season.

Then I think they're missing an opportunity. 

And, Davis and Garland are better than #4's.  much.  On the Yankees or Sox they might be #4's but most teams don't have that luxury.  They're 2 or perhaps 3's on most teams

[sportsfan882]

So what are you advocating? That the Nats sign no FAs this year and wait to get a big FA next year? Or that the Nats sign 3 mediocre #3-4 starters this year and hope for the best?

[DPMOmaha]

Sorta.  I think there's an uncommon opportunity in a deflated market to structure a rotation that gives yourself a chance to win right now while also letting your future rotation get experience without the burden of carrying the team and let them fill in the spots natually instead of shoving them in there because of necessity.  If you're not going to do that, I don't know what the point of signing 2 FA's is, just bring in Smoltz and let his experience rub off on the guys.

[Potomac Cannons]

You'll have to settle for a bowl of plain rice and a glass of milk

2% or Skim?

[Potomac Cannons]

I'll take talent over experience.  I'm also beginning to wonder what the point signing two FA starters would be.  Is it going to turn us into contenders?  Doubtful.  How much better would they make us?  5 games?  10 games?  15 games?  more?  Would it be better, long term, to bring in Smoltz only and let the young arms sit under his tutelage for a year or two and mature and then go after a big name in the next year or two when we might be ready to contend?  Unless you're going to bring in 3 guys, I'm not sure it's worth spending on just one.  3 guys could, with this offense, put us right there come August.  But I don't think the FO will go that far.

The point of 2 guys is that you've got Olsen and Lannan as the only two legitimate MLB starters on the 40 man roster.  Adding two guys, preferably league average or better innings eaters like Garland and Davis, gives you 4 legit starters and the 5th spot is a competition between the young guys like Stammen, Detwiler, Balester, Mock, Martin, Martis, Chico and maybe even Strasburg if he's just too good to hold back.  Now injuries don't decimate the rotation, the young guys get more experience and time to work on specifics they'll need to have a better chance to succeed when called up to the majors again, and the bullpen doesn't get overworked.

The pen still needs another arm, preferably a lefty for the late innings, while guys like Wilkie, Spradlin, Mandel and Storen try to force their way into the pen.

[Lintyfresh85]

Doug Davis, Garland, etc. aren't #2s on good teams.

The Nats aren't a good team.

[Evolution33]

The point of 2 guys is that you've got Olsen and Lannan as the only two legitimate MLB starters on the 40 man roster.  Adding two guys, preferably league average or better innings eaters like Garland and Davis, gives you 4 legit starters and the 5th spot is a competition between the young guys like Stammen, Detwiler, Balester, Mock, Martin, Martis, Chico and maybe even Strasburg if he's just too good to hold back.  Now injuries don't decimate the rotation, the young guys get more experience and time to work on specifics they'll need to have a better chance to succeed when called up to the majors again, and the bullpen doesn't get overworked.

The pen still needs another arm, preferably a lefty for the late innings, while guys like Wilkie, Spradlin, Mandel and Storen try to force their way into the pen.

I was going to write something with the same thought behind it but not worded as well.

[Hondo]

We are going to put the same 100 loss team on the field next year with the addition of a few used and abused veteran starting pitchers.

This Sh!t is getting old.  Go out, sign Holliday, Garland, Macdougal, Capps, Hudson and give the wild card a run for it.  Then maybe we dont have the be the punch line to every baseball joke, then maybe next year we dont have to overpay a has been catcher just to come here, then maybe we will sell out some games...

nah......that's too expensive..... can someone please pass the bread and water (official nationals meal)

[Spinman]

Yeah, we usually get pumped on here every year during the Nats' off-season and predict 80+ wins and are hopes are always dashed by the middle of April.
We aren't going to bring in 3. There aren't 3 out there that are all that great anyways. I think you have to bring at the minimum 1 guy like a Jon Garland to eat innings and help mentor the younger guys.

I am really not sure what the Nats are thinking really. They said they want to move Balester and Stammen to the pen. Then who does that leave fighting for rotation spots? Garrett Mock? J.D. Martin? Ross Detwiler?

Getting Pudge changed the Nats view as to where to place all of their young arms. Without Pudge they could have started the season with any combination of Balester, Detwiler, Stammen, JD, Mock, at AAA. With Pudge now aboard they will probably have all of them stay with the big club out of spring and let Pudge and the FA ( Davis, Piniero? or someone else) teach all the young guns how to pitch and win.

I see a rotation of FA, Lannan, Olsen, Stammen then  Balester, Mock, Detwiler, JD competeing for the final rotation spot and the others going to the pen. If Olsen gets hurt we have the next starter already being seasoned by Pudge and the flow goes smoothly. Strasburg will probably be in the rotation if we are playing .500 ball by June. Especially if Olsen/Stammen are hurt early.

The chance of the Nats getting a First tier Starter to sign with a non- contender isn't going to happen until Strasburg is in the Rotation and the Nats become a .500 team or better. Look to 2011 for that to happen.  We won't lose 100 games this year.

[Evolution33]

In order for the Nationals to improve by the required 40 games to make a run at the wild card like everyone seems to think three 2.5 WAR pitchers and an all-star outfielder will improve us by 40 games. Even with all that this is only a .500 team and that is still a 20some game improvement. This team needs to focus on winning around 10 more games next season then try and get to .500 in 2011, and then make a run in 2012. You can't just go out and sign a bunch of people and hope it works out. Other teams have tried that and they get to be in the wild card hunt for most of the season then experence a dramatic drop off and win around 75 games.

[aspenbubba]

Having read this thread for quite sometime among others  I think that while the front office is saying that they need to add 2 starting pitchers ( plus a reliever and MI ) the message I am receiving is that it isn't 100 % about baseball (in its purest form ) but trying to field a team that will stem the decline in attendance. These aren't pure baseball moves but  (if that was the case they would build solely through the draft) but trying to put a respectable team out there to eventually get fans through the turnstiles at over 3 mil per annum as they add the pieces.They need to restore credibility with the fans (hence the Pudge signing).

As far as projecting Stras and Storn playing here in 2010 I think that that maybe premature and hinder the success of one if not both. Let them decide when they should be called up by their performance and dominace in the minors rather than need or fan expectations.

[Minty Fresh]

Can I smoke pot with you?

You don't want what he's smoking.   

[Minty Fresh]

And since you asked, here's what I'd do:
I'd sign Garland for 3 years, Davis for 2 years and Sheets for 1.  After next year, you see if you can get Sheets to stick around, if not, you should have SS ready to go, he'll have been up for half of 09 already.  The year after that, Detwiler should be seasoned enough to jump in and in 3 years there should be a whole host of options.  Lannan will be signed to an extension and you should have a pretty solid rotation at that point.  That's what I'd do.  But, I don't think they're gonna ask me for my opinion.

I'd actually sign Sheets longer term than any of teh three.  You know what you have with Garland, you know what you have with Davis but with Sheets you could really have something if he returns to form.

[DPMOmaha]

I'd actually sign Sheets longer term than any of teh three.  You know what you have with Garland, you know what you have with Davis but with Sheets you could really have something if he returns to form.

I'd be thrilled with that.  I'd go super aggressive after Sheets though.  I wouldn't let him slide back to the pack.  I'd lock him up and then see who else falls back from the rest of that group unless we make a move for Nolasco.  Then I'd sign just sheets if they make the move for Ricky.

[DPMOmaha]

The point of 2 guys is that you've got Olsen and Lannan as the only two legitimate MLB starters on the 40 man roster.  Adding two guys, preferably league average or better innings eaters like Garland and Davis, gives you 4 legit starters and the 5th spot is a competition between the young guys like Stammen, Detwiler, Balester, Mock, Martin, Martis, Chico and maybe even Strasburg if he's just too good to hold back.  Now injuries don't decimate the rotation, the young guys get more experience and time to work on specifics they'll need to have a better chance to succeed when called up to the majors again, and the bullpen doesn't get overworked.

The pen still needs another arm, preferably a lefty for the late innings, while guys like Wilkie, Spradlin, Mandel and Storen try to force their way into the pen.

That's true, I didn't think about Olsen.  If he can stay healthy, he could fill that role.

[Potomac Cannons]

We are going to put the same 100 loss team on the field next year with the addition of a few used and abused veteran starting pitchers.

This Sh!t is getting old.  Go out, sign Holliday, Garland, Macdougal, Capps, Hudson and give the wild card a run for it.  Then maybe we dont have the be the punch line to every baseball joke, then maybe next year we dont have to overpay a has been catcher just to come here, then maybe we will sell out some games...

nah......that's too expensive..... can someone please pass the bread and water (official nationals meal)

.440 under Riggleman.  That's 71-91.  Adding two legit SPs, a healthy Olsen, another reliever (especially someone like Capps) and improving the MI defense (Adam Kennedy?) should put us right at .500 without giving up anything from our top prospects.  That lets Strasburg/Storen to dominate AA/AAA this year and lets the natural maturation occur for some of our guys who were rushed too quickly in the first place.

[Minty Fresh]

.440 under Riggleman.  That's 71-91.  Adding two legit SPs, a healthy Olsen, another reliever (especially someone like Capps) and improving the MI defense (Adam Kennedy?) should put us right at .500 without giving up anything from our top prospects.  That lets Strasburg/Storen to dominate AA/AAA this year and lets the natural maturation occur for some of our guys who were rushed too quickly in the first place.

This, by the way, in my opinion was the biggest hole they needed to address in the off-season and they have yet to release anything in the press that indicates they're even remotely concerned about it.

If you enter the season with young pitchers who aren't big strikeout guys you NEED to have GREAT defense played behind them.  If we go with Desmond/Guzman and Guzman/Harris as our MI, we're doomed to a lot of failure.

[Potomac Cannons]

This, by the way, in my opinion was the biggest hole they needed to address in the off-season and they have yet to release anything in the press that indicates they're even remotely concerned about it.

If you enter the season with young pitchers who aren't big strikeout guys you NEED to have GREAT defense played behind them.  If we go with Desmond/Guzman and Guzman/Harris as our MI, we're doomed to a lot of failure.

Desmond's range is very good.  He needs to tighten up his throwing, but so did a certain Mr. Zimmerman and Riggleman was able to fix that in half a season.  Guzman, on the other hand, needs to be a pinch hitter who starts once a week maybe.  Desmond with Adam Kennedey, Nick Green or Jerry Hairston Jr. would be a big upgrade over the course of the season to last year's combos of Guzman--Hernandez/Gonzalez/Orr.

[houston-nat]

the random blog guys that say they have inside sources.

Oh dang, I remember those guys!!

This offseason is boring, in comparison, but that doesn't mean it's bad. It's just begun, and as Potomac Cannons and others have outlined, we need to bring in Capps and a defensive-minded guy for second base (or shortstop, if we're calling Nick Green). I'm actually inclined to agree with Spinman about starting pitchers:

Getting Pudge changed the Nats view as to where to place all of their young arms. Without Pudge they could have started the season with any combination of Balester, Detwiler, Stammen, JD, Mock, at AAA. With Pudge now aboard they will probably have all of them stay with the big club out of spring and let Pudge and the FA ( Davis, Piniero? or someone else) teach all the young guns how to pitch and win.

I see a rotation of FA, Lannan, Olsen, Stammen then  Balester, Mock, Detwiler, JD competeing for the final rotation spot and the others going to the pen. If Olsen gets hurt we have the next starter already being seasoned by Pudge and the flow goes smoothly. Strasburg will probably be in the rotation if we are playing .500 ball by June. Especially if Olsen/Stammen are hurt early.

The chance of the Nats getting a First tier Starter to sign with a non- contender isn't going to happen until Strasburg is in the Rotation and the Nats become a .500 team or better. Look to 2011 for that to happen.  We won't lose 100 games this year.

I don't think Pudge is an instant magic cure, but I do think it's sound philosophy to keep the kids up with the big league club this year in relief roles so they can gain experience and learn by example. For this to work, our free agent or traded-for starting pitchers need to be both good players and good teachers.