Plan "B"

[BerkeleyNat]

so according to Rosenthal(insert grain of salt), everything is lining up like this:

Rays sign Pat Burrel
Cubs sign Milton Bradley
A's sign Jason Giambi.

that leaves Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn as the premier left-handed hitters on the market.

between those two, which do you take, and why?

He was right on about Burrell. ESPN is reporting that he has signed with the Rays.

[hammondsnats]

and bradley to the cubs is now being reported as official.  get dunn now so we can end this mess. 

p.s. anyone have that adam dunn/nationals image.

[HalfSmokes]

That would be great if they all can put up similar numbers to that.  I think if you're going to move an outfielder to 1b, I'd rather decide between Abreu and Willingham than Willingham and Dunn.  Abreu, in double the games played has committed the same number of errors as Dunn.  He's on a different level defensively.  Dunn, I don't think is a long term solution.  If that's the case, go with the better player, which is Abreu, IMO (and he'll be cheaper).

Dunn should be just entering his prime, Abreu should be leaving his

[eagleskins]

Thank the lord Burrell and Bradley are off the market.  I thought Bowden was going to be a fool and sign one of them. 

[Minty Fresh]

I think you almost HAVE to go and get Dunn now if your intent is to add a big bat this off-season.

[hammondsnats]

I think you almost HAVE to go and get Dunn now if your intent is to add a big bat this off-season.

  welcome to the dark side!

[DPMOmaha]

Dunn should be just entering his prime, Abreu should be leaving his

I will trade hr's for defense.  Abreu still drives in runs, has a little more speed (not that that's hard to do vs. Dunn), get's on base quite a bit and works the count well.  All those numbers are comperable to Dunn's except he doesn't hit as many hr's and committs significantly less errors. 

[The Chief]

I've been out of the loop the last week or two, can someone tell me if there's been any visible progress on anything regarding this team since the Tex fizzle?  If Olsen and Willingham are our big offseason acquisitions, I'm going to be pretty cynical going into the new season.

[natsfan4evr]

I've been out of the loop the last week or two, can someone tell me if there's been any visible progress on anything regarding this team since the Tex fizzle?  If Olsen and Willingham are our big offseason acquisitions, I'm going to be pretty cynical going into the new season.

It is clear Bowden is interested in both Dunn and Hudson. If he doesn't get either, I don't know what the next plan is.

[MrMadison]

Giambi To A's Imminent?
By Tim Dierkes [January 5 at 3:38pm CST]

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the A's have made significant progress in their talks with Jason Giambi.  He says a deal appears imminent.  Mychael Urban heard today that the A's could sign Giambi this week, possibly for one year with an option.

Rosenthal is on the money.......

[HalfSmokes]

I will trade hr's for defense.  Abreu still drives in runs, has a little more speed (not that that's hard to do vs. Dunn), get's on base quite a bit and works the count well.  All those numbers are comperable to Dunn's except he doesn't hit as many hr's and committs significantly less errors. 

again, Dunn is at an age where we can still expect improvement; Abreau is at an age where we can expect decline

[MrMadison]

again, Dunn is at an age where we can still expect improvement; Abreau is at an age where we can expect decline

exactly.

Dunn is entering his prime.  Abreu is starting on the downside of his career.

the obvious choice here is sign Dunn, and then work out who plays 1st between Dunn and Willingham later.

[DPMOmaha]

again, Dunn is at an age where we can still expect improvement; Abreau is at an age where we can expect decline

If Dunn can make those strides, then go for it.  I don't see either one as a long term solution and in if that's the case then I'd rather go with someone who we at least know will probably put up good numbers for a couple years until we can find a long term solution there.

[HalfSmokes]

If Dunn can make those strides, then go for it.  I don't see either one as a long term solution and in if that's the case then I'd rather go with someone who we at least know will probably put up good numbers for a couple years until we can find a long term solution there.

Dunn is 28, most batters peak between 28 and 30, Abreau is at an age where most batters fall off a cliff- I would much rather have one than the other to putt up good numbers for the next couple of years

[DPMOmaha]

He's on a similar numbers track of a Fred McGriff or Jim Thome who put up pretty big numbers into their late 30's and in the case of McGriff into his 40's.  And while past performance may not be indicative of future returns, those are decent models if he's made of that same cloth.  McGriff did play some DH, but less than 15 games a year.  Thome has played almost exclusively at DH the past few years. 

[KnorrForYourMoney]

again, Dunn is at an age where we can still expect improvement; Abreau is at an age where we can expect decline

I don't think we'll see that much improvement, but we will see consistency.  The guy's numbers are incredibly similar from year-to-year.  The home run totals never go below 40 and he always puts up high OBP's.

And before we get the "he hits cheap home runs because he was in a bandbox" argument: 1. the dude is known for hitting tape measure home runs, 2. even a decrease of 10 HR's would make him a 30-HR guy - that's at least double the total of anyone on the '08 Nats!

[HalfSmokes]

He's on a similar numbers track of a Fred McGriff or Jim Thome who put up pretty big numbers into their late 30's and in the case of McGriff into his 40's.  And while past performance may not be indicative of future returns, those are decent models if he's made of that same cloth.  McGriff did play some DH, but less than 15 games a year.  Thome has played almost exclusively at DH the past few years. 

here's BP's guess (its a year old- pecota hasn't comeout for 2009 yet)

Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 11%
2009 38% 11% 10%
2010 45% 29% 6%
2011 55% 35% 7%
2012 72% 51% 2%
2013 80% 66% 1%
2014 78% 75% 0%



they expect him to fall off of a cliff next year.

[houston-nat]

the obvious choice here is sign Dunn, and then work out who plays 1st between Dunn and Willingham later.

What, is our outfield crowded?

[DPMOmaha]

they expect him to fall off of a cliff next year.

Both are pure speculation.  There's models out there for both outcomes, good or bad.  I think we're going to have decent lineup next year without Dunn or Abreu.  Not great, but significantly better than last year.  The injuries last year were abnormally high by any measure.  We've got talented offensive players.  When they were all in the line up for several days in a row we got flashes of what the potential was.  Both guys will probably have similar rbi and OPS numbers.  Dunn will have both more home runs and will also give away more runs than Abreu.  Unless you think Dunn is someone that is part of the long term solution, which I don't, I think you go with Abreu. 

[BerkeleyNat]

again, Dunn is at an age where we can still expect improvement; Abreau is at an age where we can expect decline

Well said...well said. Let's get Dunn signed. The dominoes are falling quickly, it shouldn't be too long.

[sportsfan882]

Dunn entering his prime at close to 30? That's laughable.

[PANatsFan]

.296/.371/.471 20 HRs 39 doubles. 

that doesn't look quite as finished to me as it does to you.

that said, I take Dunn over Abreu for one reason only: He's younger. Dunn's 28. Abreu is 34.

but really, either of the two is fine by me.

this this this

Burrell is a good hitter and will do well on the Rays

[PANatsFan]

Dunn entering his prime at close to 30? That's laughable.

Duh that's when players enter their prime

[HalfSmokes]

this this this

Burrell is a good hitter and will do well on the Rays

you do realize those aren't Burrell's numbers?

Unless you think Dunn is someone that is part of the long term solution, which I don't, I think you go with Abreu. 

I do think Dunn is part of the medium term solution, i.e. next 3 to 4 years. I don't think he's great, but I do think he is a very good hitter especially compared to anyone we have or have coming up anytime soon.

[PANatsFan]

you do realize those aren't Burrell's numbers?

Yes of course  - Burrell is still a good hitter and I think the Rays are smart for signing him.