thoughts 1/3 of the way through the season

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Billy Beane used to say that you spend the first 2 months evaluating what you have, the next two fixing any holes, then the last two you go with what you have. Of course, he was talking about contending teams, but at this point, we can identify holes in the Nats. There's probably enough that there's no real likelihood of fixing them with external help that would make this team a WC contender even with the larger playoffs. Anything that would materially help this team will likely be internally generated. Players like House, Hassell, and pitchers like Cavalli will have to turn the team around before it makes sense to deal for patches or players to put the team over the top. 

In terms of the lineup, I think the holes going into the offseason (3rd, DH, 1st, and C) remain holes. Lowe has been pretty bad after April, and Bell has been more tolerable the last 2+ weeks as he has changed his hitting approach (yes, it's cherry picking, but since 5/11, he's .262 / .367 / .429 over 49 PAs with 2 HRs). Ruiz has gone from pathetic in 2024 to merely replacement-level with an acceptable offense for a catcher normally (but bottom third in a great year for catcher's offense); acceptable for a bottom half of the order guy and not a #4 hitter. House should get a shot soon at improving the 3rd base hole, and perhaps the outfield depth at some point might allow for a rotation at DH when Bell is eventually displaced. Lowe needs to improve to be either a trade asset or to be the kind of fix at 1st his track record suggests he should be.

I'd argue the bullpen is a long way to being  a lesser problem if not fixed. Henry's emergence has helped a ton, Davey is effectively spotting in Lopez, Finnegan gets the job done somehow, Ferrer is steadying, Chafin seems to be a huge upgrade over Poche, and the rest slot in OK in lower leverage or long relief roles.

In the rotation, there's a bit of you don't know what you will get start to start. Gore looks very good and as reliable as most of the top starters in MLB for 90 or so pitches; only issue is whether that's in 5 innings or 7. Irvin looks like a rotation piece but not a #2 as he functions here. The rest are question marks every time they take the mound, which is a step back for Parker and a disappointment for Williams. Soroka has shown flashes. Really, with the rotation, you can hope for internal improvement from Cavalli, Lord, and perhaps Shuman getting shots if the back 3 don't figure things out.

[Slateman]

Overall thought: Wasted season because ownership wouldn't pony up money.

Soroka is fine. Williams is meh. But the biggest issue here was the bullpen. We punked Finnegan to save an extra 3 million, which we spent on Sims and Poche. They're gone because they were terrible. We're five games under .500 and we were running the worst bullpen in baseball out there for it. Gotta think that not having Poche and Sims gets you at least three more wins. Why did we get Sims and Poche?

Because the Lerners were too cheap to spend jack crap this offseason. Rizzo got his deal with Walker pulled out from him by ownership. So he traded left-handed reliever Robert Garcia to the Rangers for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Now, I'm not terrible upset at this deal, but its worth noting that Walker has an 83 wRC+ and Lowe has an 87 wRC+. They aren't that dissimilar at the plate.  And Garcia would have been significantly better than Poche was. Lopez is better in May, but he still is pretty poor and is an additional 3 million dollars.

Carlos Estévez, Yimi Garcia, and Tommy Kanhle were all available, and not terribly expensive. Instead, we signed Sims, who was never good. So, for about 15 million AAV added this year, we could have had Christian Walker at 1B (+10ish or so million), added two sub-3 ERA or better relievers

[Robert Garcia (800k) + Kahnle (7.2 million)] - [Poche (1 mil)+ Sims (2mil) + Lopez (3 million) = +2 million
[Walker (est 22 million AAV)] - [Lowe (10.3 million) = ~ 12 million.

Heck, don't sign Bell and just run out literally anyone on the team and the payroll would actually be lower with the improved roster. We could actually be in position to challenge for a WC.

[Smithian]

It's an odd one because the Nats a couple times have looked like they were ready to crash out into tank territory then fought back to within striking distance .500. And unlike some previous seasons, I think this team could be good next year.

There isn't much on this team to "sell". If Lowe gets going and his value jumps, the team is probably sitting on a record where you don't want to get up an asset. A couple decent veterans like Rosario and Call would get nice but not tradeline shaping returns. Williams contract won't move unless he gets hot, which is same scenario we're facing with Lowe. Soroka on his one year contract makes sense, btu he has to produce some. Assuming Nats stay in this weird gray area of not "bad" but not .500, I'd like a quiet deadline. Do due diligence on Lowe and Finnegan, but no reason to sell something for peanuts.

I'm over Josh Bell. I don't care if he's done better recently. Eventually, the team will need to call up Morales or House, and Jacob Young will get healthy. We'll need the DH slot for Wood or guys like Tena

Nationals need to get really aggressive churning through waiver wire bullpen arms. Additionally, I'd start keeping an eye on the Catcher waiver wire since Keibert Ruiz isn't exactly an all star but they obviously don't trust the backups enough to give him more time off.

Past that, I think we have the core on roster. If the Nats roll out this setup at some point in coming months, I'd be pleased:

C: Ruiz / New Face
DH/1B: Morales
DH/1B: Lowe
2B: Garcia / Cayden Wallace platoon
3B: House
SS: Abrams
OF: Wood
OF: Hassell
OF: Crews
#4 OF: Young

If Lowe is moved and Morales is full time 1B, I still don't want James Wood consigned to DH at 22. I'd rather rotate Hassell, Tena, Garcia in that spot with Wood there some days.

In the bullpen, they need to start getting Cole Henry and Jackson Rutledge into high more leverage opportunities to figure out what we have in them. Rotation wise, Gore and Irvin are your top two guys. Lord looks like he is set for third spot. Parker right now is a disaster, Williams was a disaster before last night. Hopefully one of them figure it out.

If in the second half of the year the Nationals are not ten games under .500 and they're marching out lineups and rotations where every single guy is under team control and all but one (catcher) has potential to put up a multiple WAR season in 2026, I think that's a win for this season and it's ending the year better than we have in previous seasons.

Let's get to an offseason where a passable game plan is

• Find a major league average 1B or DH
• Find a legit middle rotation starter who you aren't scared to start in Game 2 of a playoff series
• Find a catcher who can split reps 50/50 with Ruiz
• Bank on internal improvement

The good news is we have a pitcher we can throw in Game 1 of a playoff series and we have a middle of the order masher, along with cost controlled talent across the infield and rotation. the most important thing for this team to get back in playoffs is Crews to live up prospect billing, for Hassell or House to become a complementary middle of the order bat, and for a pitcher like Sykora, Cavalli, or Parker to earn a starting spot going into 2026. Then your free agent and trade needs are reasonable even if Nats want to stay in a bottom 10 payroll.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Re: bullpen signings

This was definitely the year to get some real help and not just a patch. The list of available relievers was quite long. signings were a definite fail. Oh, Garcia has been excellent and I think has taken over as Texas's closer.

[IanRubbish]

Same play the contract
Same busted Rizzo Man Crush "toolsy" prospects who can run but can't get on base, who can throw hard but with no control, and who struggle to stay healthy
Same defensive blunders
Same base running blunders
Same dysfunctional org that evaluates the GM, manager, and coaches based on internal politics, not winning
Same front office propaganda
Same doofus owner who has an unhealthy relationship with money
Different year

One thing that is different is James Wood.  He's already an elite hitter, but they've already wasted two of the seven seasons he'll be here before Boras gets him a contract in Philly. 

[IanRubbish]

• Find a catcher who can split reps 50/50 with Ruiz

Not going to happen.   Keibert will be the starting catcher through 2030 no matter how poorly he plays.  Mini Me paid him and he's going to make sure he plays.  This assumption that winning and performance will take precedence over money, play the contract, and internal politics is false.

[rileyn]

Why do we start every year 1-6 and then fight like heck to play around .500 for the remaining 155 games?

[aspenbubba]

Take out the seven game losing streak and this team is over .500 and ahead of the braves in the NLE.

[Count Walewski]

This Wood kid, he hits the ball well. The other players should try to be more like him.

[Slateman]

Take out the seven game losing streak and this team is over .500 and ahead of the braves in the NLE.

Is that the case if we take out the Braves worst losing streak?

[aspenbubba]

Is that the case if we take out the Braves worst losing streak?

Is that the case if we take out the Braves worst losing streak?

More concerned with the Nats record. Could care less about any other teams record or standings. I want to see an upward trajectory and a competitive team with realistic playoff potential.

[GataNats]

You are seeing it now

[Slateman]

11th in runs scored

[welch]

The team looks settled and pretty good. House and Cavalli might push the Nats into the playoffs.

- 1B is Lowe
- 2B Garcia
- SS CJ
- 3B has been Tena, who should give way to House by mid-June.
- OF strong right now, with Wood, Hassell, and Lile plus Call. Gets crowded when Young returns by the end of June. If Crews comes back hitting, then it's too crowded.
- DH I like the home runs that Bell has been hitting

- Rotation has a strong Gore, a pretty good number 3 in Irvin. When Cavalli is ready, that's Gore, Cavalli, Irvin at the top. Parker, Soroka, and Williams for the final two slots. If/when someone gets hurt, it should be whoever of these is number 6 Lord. Not many good-looking starters in the minors other than Sykora.

- Bullpen is better, although I don't trust Lopez to stay calm enough to be effective. As JCA says, Chafin seems exactly like the fill-in reliever the Nats should have scopped up months ago, rather than Poche and Sims.And Chafin looks like a relief pitcher. Lord and Rutledge are good two-inning relievers.

This team is about a .500 team today. With House and Cavalli, it can make the playoffs.

Reality reminder. Consider the 2024 team:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2024.shtml