Reds, Rangers homestand 7/3 - 7/9

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think anyone figured this would feature 2 division leaders when the schedule came out.

[welch]

Any series is a good time to sweep the Expansion Washington Senators franchise. Arlington: "a jerkwater town with no more distinction than being halfway between Dallas and Fort Worth", wrote Shirley Povich in 1971. (That's from memory...but it's close to what Povich wrote)

[Elvir Ovcina]

This series is a good lesson in scouting and development.  Cincinnati's starting lineup today featured 7 guys they drafted or signed as amateur FAs, including the entire infield (pitcher and catcher included) and the CF. 

[imref]

This series is a good lesson in scouting and development.  Cincinnati's starting lineup today featured 7 guys they drafted or signed as amateur FAs, including the entire infield (pitcher and catcher included) and the CF. 

They’ve won more than 80 games once since 2013.  (31-29 in 2020).

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Reds are compensating themselves for all of the shady Jim Bowden trades

[Elvir Ovcina]

They’ve won more than 80 games once since 2013.  (31-29 in 2020).

They switched GMs in 2018 for good reason.  Since then, here are their first round picks:

2018: Jonathan India - played 2B and batted 3rd yesterday; career .778 OPS from 2B, won ROY (5th overall pick, so no great genius work here)
2019: Nick Lodolo - SP who's injured right now; 3.66 ERA in 19 starts last year (7th pick, same assessment)
2020: Austin Hendrick - HS kid, 22 and failing high-A
2021: Matt McLain - played SS, batted 2nd, hitting .301/.369/.526 (17th pick - this is a pretty darn good outcome) (their 2nd rounder that year was Andrew Abbott - the only starter the Nats miss in this series - who has a 1.21 ERA and has somehow managed 2.4 WAR in 6 MLB starts).
2022: Cam Collier - Juco kid, #57 overall prospect, middling numbers  (.664 OPS) at age 18 in low-A

They also signed Elly De La Cruz 2 months after this GM took charge.  For $65,000.  And he turned into a cleanup-hitting switch-hitting SS/3B by age 21.

And on developing later round picks: yesterday's starter was a 6th round pick in 2019 (yes, he's a back-end rock-thrower with all of 1.0 career WAR in 2 years, but for a 6th round pick that's pretty good); Alexis Diaz, their all star closer, was a 12th rounder; TJ Friedl, the CF, was a UDFA who was in the system 6 years before finally sticking at the MLB level last year.  When healthy, 4 of their 5 SPs are guys they drafted.

This is all the more stark because the Reds are essentially non-factors in expensive Latin American signings.

Here are the Nats' first-rounders since 2018:

2018:  Mason Denaburg - HS right-hander, perpetually hurt, 9.43 ERA in low-A this year
2019:  Jackson Rutledge - JuCo right-hander, just made it to AAA at age 24 (17th overall; same slot as McLain 2 years later)
2020:  Cade Cavalli - college right-hander, one MLB start, now injured
2021: Brady House - HS SS, now a 3B doing well at A/A+ at age 20. (2nd rounder, just for comparison's sake, was Daylen Lile, who is 20 and doing well in Fredericksburg)
2022: Elijah Green - HS, #83 overall prospect, middling numbers (.645 OPS) at age 19 in low-A (5th overall, so you'd expect a good outcome here based on the slot)

The Nats also spend much more internationally and have...well, uh, what to show for it?  Garcia and...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I moved a couple of posts from the GDT for game 3 to this thread because they were some pretty good points about the teams and how they are set up.

This series was just a brutal reminder of how far our young players have to go to be competitive and how much we are dependent on rebounds and reclamations among the more experienced players.  None of this is a surprise, I think, but we may have wanted some of these players to be showing more by now. 

As for the list of players in Elvir's post, I might have a couple of quibbles.  Jake Irvin doesn't look out of place in MLB, and he was a 4th round pick in 2018.  I guess that means the 2018 draft yielded one rotation regular, just not Denaburg. Also, if you went back one more year, there's Dane Dunning, who has had as good a year as most of the Cinci starters not named Abbott (great ERA, respectable FIP). Neither Cavalli nor Rutledge look like write-offs. Lodolo of course has accomplished more than Cavalli at this point.

I think it's the position players that are the real difference.  Their system is paying off now.  As for the Nats, it's 2 more years. I'll still take the flag that flies for 2019 over the Cinci results, which explains in part why their restock / rebuild is finally paying off while ours is still in the oven.  That said, it's a reminder we have to remain committed to selling anything that can be moved for value and have to hope our scouting hits while we wait for the Houses, Woods, and Vaqueros.   

[Elvir Ovcina]

I moved a couple of posts from the GDT for game 3 to this thread because they were some pretty good points about the teams and how they are set up.

This series was just a brutal reminder of how far our young players have to go to be competitive and how much we are dependent on rebounds and reclamations among the more experienced players.  None of this is a surprise, I think, but we may have wanted some of these players to be showing more by now. 

As for the list of players in Elvir's post, I might have a couple of quibbles.  Jake Irvin doesn't look out of place in MLB, and he was a 4th round pick in 2018.  I guess that means the 2018 draft yielded one rotation regular, just not Denaburg. Also, if you went back one more year, there's Dane Dunning, who has had as good a year as most of the Cinci starters not named Abbott (great ERA, respectable FIP). Neither Cavalli nor Rutledge look like write-offs. Lodolo of course has accomplished more than Cavalli at this point.

I think it's the position players that are the real difference.  Their system is paying off now.  As for the Nats, it's 2 more years. I'll still take the flag that flies for 2019 over the Cinci results, which explains in part why their restock / rebuild is finally paying off while ours is still in the oven.  That said, it's a reminder we have to remain committed to selling anything that can be moved for value and have to hope our scouting hits while we wait for the Houses, Woods, and Vaqueros.

If you want to go back 2 years, the Reds also pull in Senzel (not great, but a useful utility guy) and Hunter Greene, plus 4 or 5 more MLB backup/fringe types from theirs and other rosters.

And yes, flags fly forever, and they're further along in the rebuild process.  But they're also hitting on prospects at a really high rate (Barrero aside, who is basically Kieboom for them now) in a way that the Nationals never have.

And it's not just drafting: the guy that's starting today was in AA when they acquired him, for example.

[nobleisthyname]

This series especially has me thinking 2025 might be a bit too optimistic for our competitive window to open again. Really need at least one of Abrams, Ruiz, García to break out at some point. Even if Wood, House, and Vaquero all hit that won't be enough to make us competitive if those three are still languishing like they are now.

[Mattionals]

This series especially has me thinking 2025 might be a bit too optimistic for our competitive window to open again. Really need at least one of Abrams, Ruiz, García to break out at some point. Even if Wood, House, and Vaquero all hit that won't be enough to make us competitive if those three are still languishing like they are now.

I know Garcia is still young, but he hits arbitration next year. His performance this year has made me contemplate that he is in fact, not part of the future. Abrams is also young and kind of gets the Desmond treatment. Ruiz baffles me. I think it's obvious that he shouldn't be catching, but he needs to change his approach and stop swinging at junk to tap into his true batting potential. He could easily DH (or maybe move him to 1B?) if the bat changes.

[RobDibblesGhost]

We’re going 0-7 on this homestand.

[Slateman]

Outslugged the Rangers, just like we all predicted

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Very weird. If you could blank the Reds series out of your memory, then you'd be very happy about the last two weeks plus before the ASB. But if you did that, you would not have seen Elly De La Cruz in person.

[Natsinpwc]

9-9 over the last 18.

[imref]

9-9 over the last 18.

BUY!!!

[Natsinpwc]

BUY!!!

Have you looked at those wild card standings!!  Will be interesting to see what the Padres and Mets do.

[welch]

Have you looked at those wild card standings!!  Will be interesting to see what the Padres and Mets do.

Poor Padres! Mets were ready to sell, in the Metsie way, until they won a few games. One trip and they sell.

Incidentally, any of us who saw or heard the last game, 1971, jumps for joy every time the Texas team falls on its face. ("Keep the Senators! Send Short to Texas!"). Even better when the New Nats do it to them.