Blown Saves

[aspenbubba]

Someone mentioned weeks ago about how many blown saves were made by our vaunted relief corp.  At that time it was 11 and they postulated that if we won 5 of those games we would be at .500 and vying for a WC. Every time I see Finnegan out there I shudder. Here is the current breakdown of the 15 blown saves to date.

Finnegan - 5
Harvey -4
Edwards -2
Thompson - 2
Kuhl-1
Ramirez-1

 The dearly departed Harris, Banda, Machado had none though they threw badly enough to be DFA'd .

[JCA-CrystalCity]

in order to blow a save, you have to come in with a 3 run lead or less.  I'm not sure Banda, Machado,  or Harris ever came in with a lead, let alone a close one.

If you were to give a count of save situations and  include holds as well as saves and blown saves, the numbers would look a lot better, especially for Harvey and Edwards.

Player        SvSit   SV Ho BS
Finneg         19     11   3   5
Harvey         18       3 11  4
Edwar          16       1 13  2
Thomps          6       1  3   2
Erasmo           3       0  2   1
Kuhl                2       1   0   1
Machad           1       0   1  0

No one else has been brought in with a lead of < 3 runs.

If you define "successful" as "not blowing a lead," Finnegan has been successful a bit less than 75% of the time, Harvey close to 80%, and Edwards has found a way not to give up leads 94% of the time.  Thompson and Finnegan have had the most success at preventing inherited runners from scoring (30% and 20% score), but they are called on to pitch with runners on far less than HArvey and Edwards. OTOH, part of the frustration with Erasmo is he was being used in slightly above average leverage situations and allowing 56% of the inherited runners to score.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2023-pitching.shtml#all_players_reliever_pitching

[aspenbubba]

Just a brief reminder for those that are math challenged if the Nats were able to win JUST 6 of those 15 blown saves their record would be 32-32 and contending for a WC .

[welch]

Harvey impression: collapses in the 9th. Finnegan seems able to pitch the 9th most of the time. Neither seems all that dependable, but Harvey seems to lose a bit of control.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Harvey impression: collapses in the 9th. Finnegan seems able to pitch the 9th most of the time. Neither seems all that dependable, but Harvey seems to lose a bit of control.

I think the  9th inning rough appearances are mostly when he's overused, either having pitched multiple innings or on 3 out of 4 days.  Let's check the numbers:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=harvehu01&t=p&year=2023

His first blown save was in an 8th inning on 5/4 vs. Cubs pitching his 3 consecutive day.  Of course, that doesn't say much about his 9th inning abilities.

His second blown save was on 5/13, finishing the 7th and pitching the 8th (1.2 innings), vs the Mets, after pitching the day before.  Again, not a 9th inning. Got the win when we grabbed the lead.

His third blown save  was on 5/16 at Miami.  This was on a 3-run dinger in the 9th in his 2nd 9th inning save opportunity. I think this is the game that lead to the "he shouldn't pitch the 9th because he only has one career save" talk.

His fourth blown save was a near replay of his 3rd one, a 3-run 9th inning dinger on 5/25 vs. San Diego. Had pitched 1.1 innings the day before, but not particularly bad overuse.

He has 3 saves, one a 2 inning save. He's also entered in the 9th and finished games without giving up a run twice. 

4 games where he entered in the 9th and completed the inning w/o giving up a run, 2 games where he blew saves entering the 9th, and 1 two inning save.

OF of this, I'd say he's not yet prime Mariano, or even prime Doolittle. He's more a guy they can continue to try in the right situations, like stretches of righty hitters. I don't mind flipping him and Finnegan when the 8th inning has stretches of lefties or when Finnegan has been over-worked.

[welch]

I think the  9th inning rough appearances are mostly when he's overused, either having pitched multiple innings or on 3 out of 4 days.  Let's check the numbers:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=harvehu01&t=p&year=2023

His first blown save was in an 8th inning on 5/4 vs. Cubs pitching his 3 consecutive day.  Of course, that doesn't say much about his 9th inning abilities.

His second blown save was on 5/13, finishing the 7th and pitching the 8th (1.2 innings), vs the Mets, after pitching the day before.  Again, not a 9th inning. Got the win when we grabbed the lead.

His third blown save  was on 5/16 at Miami.  This was on a 3-run dinger in the 9th in his 2nd 9th inning save opportunity. I think this is the game that lead to the "he shouldn't pitch the 9th because he only has one career save" talk.

His fourth blown save was a near replay of his 3rd one, a 3-run 9th inning dinger on 5/25 vs. San Diego. Had pitched 1.1 innings the day before, but not particularly bad overuse.

He has 3 saves, one a 2 inning save. He's also entered in the 9th and finished games without giving up a run twice. 

4 games where he entered in the 9th and completed the inning w/o giving up a run, 2 games where he blew saves entering the 9th, and 1 two inning save.

OF of this, I'd say he's not yet prime Mariano, or even prime Doolittle. He's more a guy they can continue to try in the right situations, like stretches of righty hitters. I don't mind flipping him and Finnegan when the 8th inning has stretches of lefties or when Finnegan has been over-worked.

Sure. Pair him with Finnegan. Neither one seems like Doolittle or (gasp) regular season Drew Storen. Playoff Storen is painful to remember. One save in 2012 before that Game 5, and nothing good in 2014.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sure. Pair him with Finnegan. Neither one seems like Doolittle or (gasp) regular season Drew Storen. Playoff Storen is painful to remember. One save in 2012 before that Game 5, and nothing good in 2014.

Of all the bullpen arms, he's the one who has the best combination of current performance, team control, and projectability for future years.  Finnegan really seems to be out of the Chad Cordero school, but less reliable.  High ERAs and FIP, high WHIP, etc... Edwards has been spectacularly lucky and feels like an implosion is imminent but it's hard to criticize his results. Not good when he comes in mid-inning, not good when he goes back out after finishing an inning, but he has not given up many earned runs.  Suppressing homers to compensate for a high walk rate and low strike out rate.

Looking away from "Bullpen A," Thompson is probably due to pick up some of the work Erasmo was supposed to pick up as the 4th guy in the pen.  I'm also interested in seeing if Ward gets given some more responsibility than behind by multiple runs, his typical usage.  His walks are awful, and he's a bit homer prone, but his WHIP is still very good and he picks up a lot of Ks.  Maybe be BABIP luck, but he'll be fun to watch.

[welch]

I worry about Thompson, but maybe he was over-worked. Ward is a mystery, because he should be in Rochester except for the Rule 5 rule. If the Nats intend to make him a starter, when does he get to try being a long-relief man? He would seem to be the replacement for Erasmo...Ward or Espino.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I worry about Thompson, but maybe he was over-worked. Ward is a mystery, because he should be in Rochester except for the Rule 5 rule. If the Nats intend to make him a starter, when does he get to try being a long-relief man? He would seem to be the replacement for Erasmo...Ward or Espino.

Kuhl for now is the primary long man.  Kuhl seems to have added velocity now that he's a reliever.