Just now, it looks like the Nats will win one out of three over the Padres and Giants series. Then some of the injured will return.
If the Nats are four games under .500 at the All-Star break, they're not making the playoffs. People seem to be overlooking the fact that virtually everything external that could have happened to make the Nats' season easy has happened: the Braves have underperformed terribly, the Phillies still reek, the Mets look like a MASH unit...
And the Nats are still under .500 and in third place. If the Mets get reasonably healthy and/or the Braves start playing like the team that's won the division three times in a row, the Nats could end up 12 games out even if they swing a trade or two.