Umps post-season, even worse than you think

[hohoho]

According to a BU professor's study, umps missed 8.2% of ball/strike calls in the post season. Only three of the umps assigned to the LCS and WS ranked in the top 10 and featured 4 of the worst 15. Calls are extremely important: "During the regular season, hitters had a .351 batting average on a count of two balls and one strike, versus a .161 batting average on a count of one ball and two strikes — a difference of nearly 200 points in batting average. Moreover, umpires are responsible for calling more and more balls and strikes as fewer balls are being put in play because of the record strikeout levels of recent years."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/were-the-best-umpires-behind-the-plate-during-the-playoffs/

[nfotiu]

A bad call probably affects the batting average even more.   If a strike is called on a ball six inches out, then he has to swing at the next pitch over there.   On the flip side, if a pitcher isn't getting calls that catching the plate, then he has to throw down the middle.   The time is right for some kind of electronic help.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

I think the story of the post season could have potentially been

"DC Fans suing MLB for robot umps after bias in WS"

If Saints fans can sue change into the biggest sports league in the country, I have no doubt this could have been a very compelling argument for Robot Umpires. These Umpires were some of the absolute worst i had seen ever.

[Mathguy]

Interesting.  One question I would have is can we determine there is a difference in who the batters are between those batters who get to 2 balls, 1 strike vs those batters who get to 1 ball, 2 strikes ?  In other words, the resulting productivity after 3 pitches may have more to do with the batter and not the #balls-strikes circumstance.

According to a BU professor's study, umps missed 8.2% of ball/strike calls in the post season. Only three of the umps assigned to the LCS and WS ranked in the top 10 and featured 4 of the worst 15. Calls are extremely important: "During the regular season, hitters had a .351 batting average on a count of two balls and one strike, versus a .161 batting average on a count of one ball and two strikes — a difference of nearly 200 points in batting average. Moreover, umpires are responsible for calling more and more balls and strikes as fewer balls are being put in play because of the record strikeout levels of recent years."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/were-the-best-umpires-behind-the-plate-during-the-playoffs/

[RyanZimsKazoo]

Interesting.  One question I would have is can we determine there is a difference in who the batters are between those batters who get to 2 balls, 1 strike vs those batters who get to 1 ball, 2 strikes ?  In other words, the resulting productivity after 3 pitches may have more to do with the batter and not the #balls-strikes circumstance.

Analytics be damned, it should be based on pure emotion like these Umps were doing.

Umps didnt like Turner for example.

[hohoho]

Interesting.  One question I would have is can we determine there is a difference in who the batters are between those batters who get to 2 balls, 1 strike vs those batters who get to 1 ball, 2 strikes ?  In other words, the resulting productivity after 3 pitches may have more to do with the batter and not the #balls-strikes circumstance.

I don't think the study sheds any light on that.
Here are the full results:
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy
I find it interesting that the older are far worse than the younger umps. Seniority is rewarded post-season.

[Dave in Fairfax]

I don't think the study sheds any light on that.
Here are the full results:
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy
I find it interesting that the older are far worse than the younger umps. Seniority is rewarded post-season.

I don't find that too surprising. Baseball seems awfully accommodating to the notion that veteran umpires get to have "their" strike zone. "Oh, he's a pitcher's ump", "he's a hitter's ump", etc. They just accept the situation and work on their pitch-framing or the like to account for it, rather than really pushing for enforcement of a standard.

[djbaseball13]

A bad call probably affects the batting average even more.   If a strike is called on a ball six inches out, then he has to swing at the next pitch over there.   On the flip side, if a pitcher isn't getting calls that catching the plate, then he has to throw down the middle.   The time is right for some kind of electronic help.

There were many examples of this. In one of the WS games, Zimmerman got screwed by an inside called strike, and the very next pitch was outside for a called strike. Both were a few inches off the plate. Even the announcer (Smotlz?) criticized the umps when that occurred

[tomwvr]

Analytics be damned, it should be based on pure emotion like these Umps were doing.

Umps didnt like Turner for example.

The umps were hammering Turner

[Chelsea_Phil]

The umps were hammering Turner

I thought we got a lot of calls from the ump especially late in the game.  I recall the first out in the 8th inning was a called third strike that was about 4 inches off the plate inside.  I remember the Astros player giving an incredulous look to the ump.  It was a 3/2 pitch, I think.  If he had walked, with the score 4-2, who knows what would have happened .