Call me crazy, but...

[redskinsJB321]

If you had told me the Nats would be in 1st place by 3.5 games with Strasburg, Gio, Harper, Zimmerman, and Ramos "contributing" what they have this year, I'd have laughed all day.  I know the team is frustrating, but if you look at it fairly, it is actually amazing that they have this record.

I may do a longer, more detailed post on this, but I think this team will be in a better position about 4 years from now. 

1) They'll have more money by then (MASN settlement, new Spring training facility, and increased ticket sales after a playoff run or two). 

2) Harper, Rendon, Strasburg, Giolito,and Taylor (among others) will be more experienced/established.

3) The minors should be absolutely stacked.  Rizzo has done a tremendous job in building a farm system and team through using only the draft.  What you may not know is they hired a guy named Johnny DiPuglia from the Red Sox to run their IFA (International Free agent) scouting.  It took a few years to add depth and repair things, but you are starting to see some serious talent in the lower minors.  Reynaldo Lopez in Hagerstown hits 100 with his FB.  There are several others. I may detail more later.

Their Dominican Summer League team has five 17-year olds that are performing like future stars.  Typically, if you get one from a class you are lucky.  Those guys will be coming over to the GCL next season, and will be the equivalent of adding five 1st/2nd round picks out of HS.  Plus Fedde will be starting next year and will be like adding a 1st rounder in addition to whomever they draft.  In 2016, they should have 2-4 extra high picks from FAs leaving. 

The way they have drafted added to the IFAs should really load up the system and allow them to make trades and replace guys that leave.

Obviously, things can and will go wrong, but on the whole, I don't think it is too Sunshine squadish to look at things and be excited to be a Nats fan.  Overall, they are doing things very well and the future looks bright.  The present may be bright as well.  They have a shot this year and next with good health.

Finally, I just want to pass on my hope that many of you that go nuts over every little game or event will learn the lesson that I did and try to look at the big picture.  Remember the best teams are going to lose 60-something games.  The best hitters are going to fail 60+ percent of the time.  This is not a sport to judge players or teams for every little event.  Study the game, study the history, know as many facts as you can, and you'll see it is pretty good to be a Nats fan.

[whytev]

You are not crazy.

[mmzznnxx]

Welcome to the board dude/dudette. 

I'm not so Sunshiney, and when it comes to four years from now, I'm even less optimistic than where we stand today.

I'm taking this all from baseball-reference. Four years from now, if we take four years from now to be 2018, of the guys you listed:

Strasburg: Free agent in 2017. Will want a lot of money and isn't worth too much now considering he can't play against the Braves and is pretty mediocre against the Phillies.

Gio: Also free agent in 2017. Not a huge loss any way unless he gets to "Pre-Biogensis" form.

Zimmerman: Will be under contract for two more years, but already can't play third and is a question mark at LF and 1B. Who knows how his bat will be then.

Harper: Will be a free agent after one year. Hopefully should be better, but is still a huge injury risk because of himself, has trouble with breaking stuff and hasn't proven he's dependable against lefties, though he's been pretty good this season.

Ramos: Will be a free agent that year. Injury risk on any play he has to run hard. Good bat but probably not an elite-bat unless you put in the perspective of catchers.

Zimmermann, Fister, Span, Desmond, might have all left for better or for worse. Werth will have finished the last year of his contract and probably be a shell of his former self. LaRoche has probably retired by now and that's even if he's playable.

Barring major freakups, they'll have more money to spend because of new TV deals, but that's still a lot of current players to retain that are questionably Championship players wanting big money and any holes to fill. Rendon and Roark, who have been two of our best players, will be close to free agency.

Hopefully Cole and Giolito will be able to take to the rotation, but you also have to hope Rizzo (if he's still GM) and $manager does a good job of incorporating young position players into the team and helping them become good MLB players. Based off their record so far, I'm not optimistic.

That still leaves having to fill out a bench and a bullpen.

The window is closing, and I don't think the window is as wide as we would have thought any way. They need to make good moves to continue to be a playoff threat, let alone do anything in the playoffs. Four years from now I'm just hoping we aren't being submarined to below-.500 teams.

Welcome to WNFF though. Hope you don't come to hate me and my piss-poor disposition too much.

[rileyn]

Good post but I'm not worried about 4 years from now.  I want to win this year, just like I did in 2102 when we kept hearing how this is the beginning of a long run of dominance.  I'm always leary about locking players up to long term deals unless they are true superstars.  Look at what we have on our hands with Ryan Zimmerman's contract - he is a man without a position and his bat isn't strong enough to make up for that.  I believe players play their best when they are trying to secure their next contracts, rather than after they sign long term deals.

Win now.

[Mathguy]

Welcome to the land of crazy.  You fit right in.  But we don't need any more detail than you provided

If you had told me the Nats would be in 1st place by 3.5 games with Strasburg, Gio, Harper, Zimmerman, and Ramos "contributing" what they have this year, I'd have laughed all day.  I know the team is frustrating, but if you look at it fairly, it is actually amazing that they have this record.

I may do a longer, more detailed post on this, but I think this team will be in a better position about 4 years from now.

[NationalHeat]

Welcome to the board dude/dudette. 

I'm not so Sunshiney, and when it comes to four years from now, I'm even less optimistic than where we stand today.

I'm taking this all from baseball-reference. Four years from now, if we take four years from now to be 2018, of the guys you listed:

Strasburg: Free agent in 2017. Will want a lot of money and isn't worth too much now considering he can't play against the Braves and is pretty mediocre against the Phillies.

Gio: Also free agent in 2017. Not a huge loss any way unless he gets to "Pre-Biogensis" form.

Zimmerman: Will be under contract for two more years, but already can't play third and is a question mark at LF and 1B. Who knows how his bat will be then.

Harper: Will be a free agent after one year. Hopefully should be better, but is still a huge injury risk because of himself, has trouble with breaking stuff and hasn't proven he's dependable against lefties, though he's been pretty good this season.

Ramos: Will be a free agent that year. Injury risk on any play he has to run hard. Good bat but probably not an elite-bat unless you put in the perspective of catchers.

Zimmermann, Fister, Span, Desmond, might have all left for better or for worse. Werth will have finished the last year of his contract and probably be a shell of his former self. LaRoche has probably retired by now and that's even if he's playable.

Barring major freakups, they'll have more money to spend because of new TV deals, but that's still a lot of current players to retain that are questionably Championship players wanting big money and any holes to fill. Rendon and Roark, who have been two of our best players, will be close to free agency.

Hopefully Cole and Giolito will be able to take to the rotation, but you also have to hope Rizzo (if he's still GM) and $manager does a good job of incorporating young position players into the team and helping them become good MLB players. Based off their record so far, I'm not optimistic.

That still leaves having to fill out a bench and a bullpen.

The window is closing, and I don't think the window is as wide as we would have thought any way. They need to make good moves to continue to be a playoff threat, let alone do anything in the playoffs. Four years from now I'm just hoping we aren't being submarined to below-.500 teams.

Welcome to WNFF though. Hope you don't come to hate me and my piss-poor disposition too much.

Nats have a few option years on Gio.

[HalfSmokes]

Nats have a few option years on Gio.

the second option is a player option

[NationalHeat]

the second option is a player option

2018 is a vesting option that becomes guaranteed with 180 IP in 2017. I guess he can opt out of that?

[HalfSmokes]

I read it as he has the option if he pitches 180 innings in 2017, but it could be the other way

[UMDNats]

This is a nightmare of a season.

[Baseball is Life]

Welcome, redkskinsJB, I like your outlook....and don't let the Negative Nancys beat you down.

[OldChelsea]

[...]1) They'll have more money by then (MASN settlement[...]

Don't bet the rent/mortgage money on that....

[redskinsJB321]

NationalHeat:  Thanks for the reply.  I don't have time for a really long post, so let's say for simplicity that it works out to where they want to keep Strasburg, Roark, Giolito, Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Taylor.  The payroll as is $135 million.  The increases from a MASN deal alone would give them more than enough to keep that core and build and build around it.  I am actually more worried about them eventually getting into a Yankees/Phillies Situation where they have a bunch of old guys signed that they can not trade.

Gio is a guy they could keep, but it does not have to be him.  The point was about the team as a whole.  The team will have some of these players and prospects work out.  Some will not.  I expect them to 1) Have money to keep their core 2) Have a minor league system better than it has ever been. 3) Have their most talented players more established in their roles instead of growing as they are now.

As far as this year, it is frustrating.  Look at their record though.  They are in first despite getting almost nothing from Harper, Zimmerman, and Ramos.  Strasburg and Gio have been subpar.  If those players get it together in September, this team has as good of a shot as any team in baseball.

I think it is exciting that my team has a legit shot at the World Series and is growing and not even close to the best it can be. 

I will see you in four years

[HalfSmokes]

BP's podcast just looked at what they were saying about the Rangers in 2012, to put it mildly, predictions about the future, especially if they incorporate prospects, can miss wildly

[whytev]

BP's podcast just looked at what they were saying about the Rangers in 2012, to put it mildly, predictions about the future, especially if they incorporate prospects, can miss wildly

It's true. This is why I don't get why you guys all salivate for Taylor, Walters, Souza, et al. Once these guys start hitting at the major league level then great but until then, we just wait.

[HalfSmokes]

It's true. This is why I don't get why you guys all salivate for Taylor, Walters, Souza, et al. Once these guys start hitting at the major league level then great but until then, we just wait.

pre 2011, it's really all we had to look forward too, you know you'll be wrong the majority of the time, but compared to discussing D Cab's lack of command or Bergman's beach balls, it's better

[Mattionals]

I don't think anyone can predict 4 years out unless ALL the talent is young and in the low minors.  In 4 years, the team will look very different.  The Nats between now and then could trade prospects for on the field upgrades.  What if the Nats felt they have zero chance of re-signing Desmond, but trade Giolito and others to Colorado for Tulo?  Sure, there is next to zero chance of that happening, but just imagine if that is what the Nats decided to do.

Ultimately, success in the future is determined by the success of the "prospects".

[Optics]

I think we've got about two years left in our window to win a ring. I hope Rizzo keeps making aggressive moves to get us over that hump. Baseball is such a crapshoot though, you just gotta keep getting into the playoffs and then hope one day it all falls into place and you win it all.

[welch]

Welcome!

I was grumbling about the Atlanta series when I realized that in 1957 or 1967 I would have been deliriously happy to have the Nats in first by 3.5 games. My perspective had gotten dislodged by the 2012 season.

[tomterp]

If you had told me...

Nice post, thanks.

We scarcely hear anything about the Dominican summer league or the Gulf Coast Nats for that matter.  So, are you ready to place an avatar bet that the 2015 GFN's will outperform 2013's version?     

I wasn't sure what you meant by this: 

Plus Fedde will be starting next year and will be like adding a 1st rounder in addition to whomever they draft. 

Fedde isn't like a first rounder of course, he IS a first rounder.   

[swirvi]

I wasn't sure what you meant by this: 
Fedde isn't like a first rounder of course, he IS a first rounder.   

He just meant that since Fedde won't start pitching until next year, it will be the equivalent of adding 2 1st round picks to our farm system next season.  But I see what you mean as well...

[tomterp]

He just meant that since Fedde won't start pitching until next year, it will be the equivalent of adding 2 1st round picks to our farm system next season.  But I see what you mean as well...

Ok, thanks for clarifying.  I wasn't being critical, just didn't get what you meant.