Author Topic: Predict John Lannan's stats (Read 1174 times)

NatsDad14 · « **on:** March 31, 2010, 03:41:54 pm »

This is where you post what you think he will put up this season. Some people expect him to break out and have a decent season now that he has experience and is confident. Others like stat geeks think he will suck this year.

3.65 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 H/9, 1.27 WHIP

Expect him to surprise a lot of people.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #1 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:10:32 pm »

4.31 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 H/9, 1.41 WHIP

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #2 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:16:09 pm »

He looks poised for a career year. ERA ~3.50. Double digit wins.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #3 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:23:41 pm »

12-8, 3.71 ERA

The Chief · « **Reply #4 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:24:48 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on March 31, 2010, 04:10:32 pm

4.31 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 H/9, 1.41 WHIP

You're expecting a reversal of the trend?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #5 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:28:07 pm »

I think eventually every pitcher gets figured out. I'm not confident Lannan's stuff is strong enough to adjust to the adjustments the hitters have made.

blue911 · « **Reply #6 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:31:30 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on March 31, 2010, 04:28:07 pm

I think eventually every pitcher gets figured out. I'm not confident Lannan's stuff is strong enough to adjust to the adjustments the hitters have made.

Bob Forsch and Tommy John (post surgery) were pretty much the same type of pitcher. Crap,crap,crap and here's some more crap.

The Chief · « **Reply #7 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:32:58 pm »

But you expect his K/9 to go up?

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #8 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:34:27 pm »

I don't know what his average K/9 is to begin with. I just based the K/9, BB/9, H/9 off of what GMUNat posted

The Chief · « **Reply #9 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:37:14 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on March 31, 2010, 04:34:27 pm

I don't know what his average K/9 is to begin with. I just based the K/9, BB/9, H/9 off of what GMUNat posted

5.8 in '08, 3.9 in '09

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #10 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:38:13 pm »

Then I'd say its a good bet to be 4.7 in 2010.

The Chief · « **Reply #11 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:40:44 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on March 31, 2010, 04:38:13 pm

Then I'd say its a good bet to be 4.7 in 2010.

Then I'm still curious as to why you think that. Is that a stat that bounces up and down year to year?

blue911 · « **Reply #12 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:45:18 pm »

Quote from: Dunnkey on March 31, 2010, 04:40:44 pm

Then I'm still curious as to why you think that. Is that a stat that bounces up and down year to year?

Lannan doesn't have "Swing and Miss" stuff so his strikeouts come from surprise and location (basically a bad call by the ump). I would venture that the opposing pitcher makes up 20%+ of his strikeouts.

The Chief · « **Reply #13 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:46:52 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on March 31, 2010, 04:45:18 pm

Lannan doesn't have "Swing and Miss" stuff so his strikeouts come from surprise and location (basically a bad call by the ump). I would venture that the opposing pitcher makes up 20%+ of his strikeouts.

I agree with all of that, but that still doesn't explain why anyone would expect his K/9 to go up this year, especially if they're generally expecting him to do worse overall.

blue911 · « **Reply #14 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:52:04 pm »

Quote from: Dunnkey on March 31, 2010, 04:46:52 pm

I agree with all of that, but that still doesn't explain why anyone would expect his K/9 to go up this year, especially if they're generally expecting him to do worse overall.

It's the Greg Maddux effect. Lannan will get more borderline pitches the longer he shows he can consistently it those spots.

The Chief · « **Reply #15 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:52:58 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on March 31, 2010, 04:52:04 pm

It's the Greg Maddux effect. Lannan will get more borderline pitches the longer he shows he can consistently it those spots.

Alright, I'll buy that.

blue911 · « **Reply #16 on:** March 31, 2010, 04:58:57 pm »

Quote from: Dunnkey on March 31, 2010, 04:52:58 pm

Alright, I'll buy that.

I think Lannan's strike out rate is immaterial. He isn't a fly ball pitcher that needs to rely on strike outs to get out of trouble.

The Chief · « **Reply #17 on:** March 31, 2010, 05:06:04 pm »

I know, I was just curious.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #18 on:** April 23, 2010, 11:23:32 am »

Bump for an article on Fangraphs. While Jack Moore is eating some crow on Pudge, he is giving a "told you so" about John Lannan's first few starts.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lannans-continued-struggles

Quote

The ridiculous amount of balls in play that Lannan allows is finally catching up to him, it would appear. It is a long season, and there is time for Lannan to revert to the form that added up to that 3.98 ERA the first few years of his career. As Joe mentioned earlier this month, Lannan has been a bit of a study in DIPS theory for his whole career. What we’re seeing now is much closer to what DIPS theory would tell us to expect from a pitcher like Lannan.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #19 on:** April 23, 2010, 11:41:20 am »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on March 31, 2010, 04:10:32 pm

4.31 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 H/9, 1.41 WHIP

I hope this can still come true.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #20 on:** April 23, 2010, 11:45:14 am »

that guy is a hater

The Chief · « **Reply #21 on:** April 23, 2010, 12:00:50 pm »

Quote

Really, you’re discounting Lannan’s entire career of outperforming DIPS in favor of 4 starts? That, sir, is conformation (sic) bias!

I agree with this comment. Coincidentally, the kind of attitude that this article embodies is exactly what I get sick of seeing around here - people downing on a particular player and never giving them any credit because they don't like him, and then puffing their chest out as big as they can the minute a tiny sample size "proves" them "right."

What ever happened to root-root-root for the home team?

blue911 · « **Reply #22 on:** April 23, 2010, 12:12:49 pm »

The Nats are 3-1 when Lannan starts. I couldn't care less about his personal stats.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #23 on:** April 23, 2010, 12:14:45 pm »

I remember FJB had a post last year sometime in August after a few bad starts touting the "Lannan is going to revert to his peripherals" line, then Lannan turned around and had several good starts the rest of the way. Maybe this stuff has the reverse mojo, too.