Pudge - he's not dead yet

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I could not believe I went through 5 pages of topics and we do not have one dedicated to Pudge.  This thread could be subtitled "stat geeks eat crow" but even the non-geeks thought this guy was dead man walking, or, in his case, swinging away.  This is Fangraphs semi-admission of "oops."  They still say we spent too much, but say even with regression in BABIP and his lack of homers, he is likely to end up have a good offensive season.  Additionally, they point out he is still an effective defender, and says there is no obvious deficiency in his game calling.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pudges-crazy-start

[PANatsFan]

On Sunday with Marquis, he seemed to not even bother blocking wild pitches

[blue911]

We can always take care of the "Not Dead Yet" crap

[JCA-CrystalCity]

fixed.

[Lintyfresh85]

Interesting response to the article...

Why is 3 weeks of hot hitting engendering such optimism about I-Rod being good now?

His strikeout rate is very abnormally low: 6.1%, when the low for his career in a full season is 8.6% … in 1996! (and probably when he was still juicing) His career is 15.2% and the past 3 seasons he has been around 19% overall.

His BABIP is at .468, career .324 BABIP, over past 3 seasons, declining each year to a career low in 2009, lows he has not hit since his first couple of early seasons in his career, nearly 20 years ago.

And did you even look at the rest of season forecast? That’s a .270/.299/.396/.695 batting line, with 7 HR. How does that show that he still has pop in his bat, with an ISO of 126? That would have been good for 8th worse ISO for catchers with over 300 PA in 2009 in the majors.

Still, I see your point about him being worth more because he’s a catcher, so I buy your line of reasoning. But then you still question the deal at the end.

However, to your point about a low 300 wOBA being valuable, he was basically that in 2007 and Fangraphs listed the value of that at $7.1M. Thus, even if he does half of what he did in 2007 (129 games, 515 PA), he would still be producing $3.6M in 2010, which is above the $3M he’s being paid. ZiPS projects him at roughly 88% of his 2007 PA, so that would be worth (assuming his defense is about the same, and he has averaged 3 per year over the period and had 4 last season, so that seems reasonable) $6.2M in 2010.

Based on Fangraphs stats, it would seem that the Nationals got a great deal with I-Rod. It appears that a catcher with even a low 700 OPS but with good defense can be worth a lot of money, performance-wise, which I never knew until now.

[PANatsFan]

That guy just suggested that K's are affected by PED's, so tl;dr.

[Lintyfresh85]

All I cared about was the bolded part, really.

But, hasn't it been proven that Pudge was on PED's at one point or another in his career?

Wasn't he on the Mitchell Report?

[PANatsFan]

Not questioning that, but unless the drugs affected his brain, why would it change his K rate?

[The Chief]

Not questioning that, but unless the drugs affected his brain, why would it change his K rate?

Bat speed would be my guess.

[Coladar]

Bat speed would be my guess.

I can't imagine we're talking about that dramatic of a difference between bat speeds as to make even a notifiable effect on a players strikeout rate. I'd be curious, for those confirmed 100% steroid cases out there, if we look at the years they admit they took them and the years they didn't, if there is any substantial difference from their career average outside of an acceptable range between on and off steroids for their strikeout %. I can't believe there is. I'll buy steroids can effect almost every conceivable aspect of baseball, all with negative effects of course, but strikeout percentage isn't one of them unless the guy is in total rage at the ball every time he's got an AB thanks to the steroids. "HulkGiambi Smash Puny Ball!"

[The Chief]

"HulkGiambi Smash Puny Ball!"

I just remember someone here mentioning that last year as an easy way to spot roiders who are off the juice.  No idea if there's any truth to it.  I also remember reading an ex-roider's testimony about how being on roids makes the ball "look huge."

[Evolution33]

I just remember someone here mentioning that last year as an easy way to spot roiders who are off the juice.  No idea if there's any truth to it.  I also remember reading an ex-roider's testimony about how being on roids makes the ball "look huge."

I thought it made the balls shrink.

[PANatsFan]

In his first regular-season at-bat with steroids in his system, the player digs into the batter's box and tries to calm himself. Scientists believe steroids can heighten aggression, which could help the player attack a pitch with greater force, or hurt him because he will chase too many bad pitches. Whether a result of power pitchers, smaller ballparks or steroids, recent years have had the most home runs in history, but also the most strikeouts.

''Much has been made of 'roid rage,'' said Dr. Allan Lans, a sports psychologist who has worked with the Mets and players for other teams. ''In baseball, aggressiveness is to be a very controlled kind of thing. If you don't have control, it becomes detrimental to your performance. Even at the plate, what's required is focus and concentration. You can't use steroids for something like that.''

Scientists say they do not believe steroids improve hand-eye coordination, but because they agree the drugs help build strength, some extrapolate that steroids would also quicken bat speed. Better bat speed gives the hitter more time to wait on a pitch, to read it and follow it. The player most likely has an extra split second to decide what pitch is approaching and whether he wants to swing at it.

''Steroids make your hands faster in that they increase muscle in your forearms and pectorals and numerous muscle sets involved in hitting a baseball,'' said Dr. Charles Yesalis, professor of health and human development at Penn State. ''If you need less time to get around on the ball, you have more time to tell if it's a slider, knuckleball or curve. That makes complete sense.''

I don't buy it.

They don't talk about reaction time vs wrist strength increase, but I have to believe that it's negligable.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/14/sports/baseball-taking-a-swing-with-steroids.html?pagewanted=all

[blue911]

I don't buy it.

They don't talk about reaction time vs wrist strength increase, but I have to believe that it's negligable.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/14/sports/baseball-taking-a-swing-with-steroids.html?pagewanted=all

Livo blew a 64MPH curve ball past Tulowitzki yesterday. Maybe Tulo should get an exemption.

[The Chief]

Negligible in what sense?  They already said it would only make a split-second difference, but we're talking about pro athletes here...  that split second could make a difference.

Without hard data - which we'll never have - it's all academic anyway.  I was just offering one possible answer to your apparently rhetorical question.

[PANatsFan]

Negligible in what sense?  They already said it would only make a split-second difference, but we're talking about pro athletes here...  that split second could make a difference.

Without hard data - which we'll never have - it's all academic anyway.  I was just offering one possible answer to your apparently rhetorical question.

That's the theory, it's interesting, and a professor said it makes sense.

Your point is valid, but to me, there's too much psychology involved for them to ever know. So we agree. Where's the issue?

[blue911]

When do teams start pitching Rodriguez inside? Right now he looks just like a guy that has a ton of experience and knows how to hit the ball the other way. Wait until they start pounding him inside and we'll see just how much is left in the tank.

[The Chief]

That's the theory, it's interesting, and a professor said it makes sense.

Your point is valid, but to me, there's too much psychology involved for them to ever know. So we agree. Where's the issue?

You're a poopoo head

When do teams start pitching Rodriguez inside? Right now he looks just like a guy that has a ton of experience and knows how to hit the ball the other way. Wait until they start pounding him inside and we'll see just how much is left in the tank.

He was in the NL last year, why haven't they figured it out already?  Or why didn't he hit .300+ last year?  Obviously his current numbers aren't sustainable, but I am curious.  It's not like there isn't plenty of tape to look at.  Or maybe Lenny Harris is a pitching coach now

[blue911]

You're a poopoo head

He was in the NL last year, why haven't they figured it out already?  Or why didn't he hit .300+ last year?  Obviously his current numbers aren't sustainable, but I am curious.  It's not like there isn't plenty of tape to look at.  Or maybe Lenny Harris is a pitching coach now

More a lack of respect, coupled with just getting through the Zimmerman/Dunn/Willingham part of the order. Somebody benefits from the long at bats the 3-5 give the team and it happens to be Pudge at the present time.

[The Chief]

More a lack of respect, coupled with just getting through the Zimmerman/Dunn/Willingham part of the order. Somebody benefits from the long at bats the 3-5 give the team and it happens to be Pudge at the present time.

Here's what I was able to find.  Not sure what the "-" result for up and in means.  Surely someone has pitched him there?  I'm assuming the "hot zone" chart doesn't cover pitches that would be balls, but it doesn't specifically say.

[NatsTheFats]

More a lack of respect, coupled with just getting through the Zimmerman/Dunn/Willingham part of the order. Somebody benefits from the long at bats the 3-5 give the team and it happens to be Pudge at the present time.

Didn't he begin the season hitting 7th?  I thought he was only recently moved up to 6th. 

[blue911]

Didn't he begin the season hitting 7th?  I thought he was only recently moved up to 6th. 

Yesterday was the only time he didn't bat 6th or 7th.